Kobe Bryant just passed Michael Jordan on the NBA’s all-time scoring list to move into third in NBA history, and he should enjoy it while it lasts. A lot has been discussed regarding Bryant and his chase of Jordan. After all, Jordan is widely regarded as the greatest to ever play the game and is the player Bryant most modeled his game after. Only someone naïve would think that passing Jordan in all-time points doesn’t mean anything to Kobe Bryant, even while being in third place probably doesn’t have the same cache as say, being number one, would have on Bryant’s career resume. Watching Bryant pass Jordan was all well and good, and I am as big a fan of Bryant as you will find, but myself and other Lakers fans need to enjoy Bryant being in the third position on basketball’s most important statistical list while we can. Others are coming for that spot and it won’t take them long to get there.
Kobe Bryant finished with a total of 32,310 points after the game Sunday night in Minnesota. Assuming a 25 point per game average over the course of the rest of the season and no injuries, Kobe will finish this season at 33,760 points for his career. If he plays next season at around the same level, he will finish with 35,810. If we say, hypothetically, that Bryant is content to finish his career off after next season when his current contract is up, he will still be in third place on the all-time scoring list. It is safe to assume that barring injury, Bryant will likely finish with somewhere between 35 and 36 thousand points. For the sake of argument I will make it a round 36k, which might even be a bit generous.
So who is going to catch Kobe? We might see someone surpass Jordan and Bryant within the next five or six years. LeBron James is slowly passing all-time greats on the NBA’s career point list and is just 53 away from passing Charles Barkley as of this writing for 23rd place. Not bad for a player still in his prime. James has had career average of 27.5 points per game to Bryant’s 25.5, and will likely pass Bryant before his career is finished. Bryant of course had Shaquille O’Neal for the early portion of his career and did not start averaging in the mid 20’s until a few years into his career, effectively splitting points to be had with O’Neal before winning scoring titles on his own. James has been the number one option his entire career and that has paid off, and could give him a chance to become the NBA’s all-time point leader.
If James continues to average 25.5 points per game for the rest of this season, he will finish with 25,236 for his career to that point. That would put him into 18th place on the all-time list through 12 seasons. A safe estimate for great scorers is that they will average around 2,000 points per season, which is around a 25 per game average. If James were to continue at the pace he has been on for his entire career he would need to play about five more seasons to reach 35,000 points to get into the territory Bryant will be at. Even with a bit of a drop off in production, James would be able to pass Bryant in career points likely after six seasons. If James were to play up to the 20 seasons we are assuming for Bryant, those extra 8 season of his career, at a 2,000 point pace, would put him over 40,000 points and into first place on the all-time list. Karl Malone and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are probably safe from Kobe Bryant, but better watch out for LeBron James.
Another great scorer who is a dark horse to possibly catch Bryant in his career is Kevin Durant. Durant has gotten off to a s
low start this season due to injury, but if he is healthy is an elite scorer who is capable of averaging enough points to get close to Bryant. Already at 15,000 points through 7 seasons, he should finish this season between 16 and 17 thousand points for his career. Assuming again around 2,000 points per season, which might even be a low number for Durant, he would have to play about 10 season to pass Bryant. That would put Durant at 17 NBA seasons, plus on college season that Bryant and James didn’t have. Counting his college season for a total of 20 basketball seasons total for Durant, he might be able to approach the 40,000 point total.
Whatever happens in the next decade or so, we are watching some of the greatest players to ever play in the NBA. I think that there is a great chance James passes Bryant in total points in the next five or six years, depending on when Bryant wants to call it a career. Durant is a bit tougher to project, because he has a long ways to go, but he has been an historically great scorer early in his career. A lot can happen in the NBA and in these players’ careers, but Kobe Bryant should enjoy his time spent in that third place position, because I don’t think it is going to last all that long.
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow me on Twitter – @BryceWarner1and support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
For the latest in sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for?
