With just over a quarter of this season gone, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in the Eastern Conference’s first wildcard playoff spot. Many of Toronto’s fans and pundits alike would attribute at least some of the team’s success to the proclaimed “breakouts” of Cody Franson and Tyler Bozak.
To their credit, both Franson and Bozak have put up some impressive numbers. Franson, who’s spent a lot of time on captain Dion Phaneuf’s pairing, is easily the Leafs’ highest-scoring defenceman so far, with 17 points in 24 games (good for 17th in the NHL among blueliners). Bozak, who’s spent the majority of this year between James van Riemsdyk and his roommate Phil Kessel, has 11 goals and 13 assists. His 24 points put him second in team scoring, behind only Kessel. Both Franson and Bozak are on pace to shatter their career highs. However, are these levels of production at all sustainable? And if not, is the time right for the Leafs to trade either player?
Should the Leafs Sell High on Cody Franson and Tyler Bozak?
Let’s start with Franson. He’s never cracked 30 points in his career (although in the lockout-shortened season of 2012-13 he was on pace for 53). He’s 27 years old, so he’s unlikely to get much better (and it’s not likely he had a massive jump in development from last season). Of course, last year Franson was rumoured to be beleaguered with a nagging injury, which hampered his play. Regardless of how much stock you put in that rumour, it’s impossible to deny that he was brutal at times that season. He was second among NHL defencemen in hits, but that was in part due to his enormous amount of giveaways and the fact that the Leafs rarely possessed the puck as a team. Although plus/minus is, largely an unimportant stat, it’s quite telling that Franson was -20 in 2013-14, the worst on a pretty bad team.
So what’s different this year? Well, for one, he’s healthy. But there’s no way the only thing stopping Franson from being an offensive juggernaut was a minor injury. For one thing, his PDO has shot up from last season – from 99.8 to 103.6. That’s a huge jump. It’d be unfair to say Franson’s just been lucky this year, but he probably has had some better fortune than the previous campaign. In his defence, his play has improved, despite playing against much tougher competition (a by-product of playing top minutes with Phaneuf). The Leafs possession metrics are also noticeably better (as much as 4%) with Franson on the ice than without him.
One further consideration here is that Franson is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in July, 2015. Can the Leafs afford to allow the trade deadline to pass without inking Franson to a contract extension?
So, although Franson probably isn’t having the “breakout” hailed by Leafs fans, but he is certainly playing better than he has in recent years. The question the Leafs must answer, though, is whether they believe he can sustain this level of play Honestly, there’s a compelling case to be made that this year’s Franson will be closer to his face value than last year’s. A much more compelling case than can be made for Tyler Bozak, at least.
Bozak has long been a subject of contention in Toronto. Signed as a college free agent, one could easily argue the Leafs have already gotten more value out of him than expected, as he’s been a regular NHLer for over four years. However, it’s a lot more difficult to argue that he’s the calibre of a top-line centre (the role in which he’s spent much of his NHL career). If one looks just at his point production this year, then sure, he’s on pace for totals resembling those of an elite first liner (he’s currently headed for about 76 points). But it’s hard to believe Tyler Bozak will ever score 76 points, or 35 goals (which he’s also on pace for).
Bozak is quite a poor player in terms of possession stats. He’s repeatedly among the worst on the Leafs, who have in recent years been a laughably bad possession team. Watching him play, it’s often easy to see why. Despite often being lauded as an elite defensive centre, Bozak’s game in his own end is actually relatively weak. And, when one sees him playing with Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk, it’s also easy to see why he’s been scoring so much – in fact, it’s somewhat surprising he doesn’t score even more, considering how many opportunities he misses.
So, if Bozak isn’t a defensive revelation, and he isn’t a scoring machine, what is he? He’s certainly a gifted shootout and breakaway specialist, which is often a blessing, considering the talent of his setup man Kessel. Bozak is also an above-average faceoff man, especially this season, considering his 57.3 winning percentage (there’s a stat that isn’t really affected by his linemates). He’s performed decently on the penalty kill for the Leafs, although there are certainly many who could do his job there better.
All the signs point to the fact that Tyler Bozak’s point totals are propped up by Kessel and van Riemsdyk. In the past, he’s shown very noticeable drops in effectiveness when separated from the top line. It remains to be seen whether he’ll regress this year, but Bozak is not scoring at a pace he’d have on the Leafs second or third line.
It seems like the time is ripe for the Leafs to trade Bozak, while he’s still putting up points. Right now, his value is likely the highest it will ever be, so they have to make a deal soon in order to get anything back. But what could they get back? Well, looking at the Edmonton Oilers, they have huge gaps both at centre and on the blueline. They also have some interesting pieces to move, and it’s becoming more and more clear that they have to make a big trade soon. It’s possible the Leafs could look at sending both Bozak and Franson, at the probable peak of their value, in a package deal, although it’s difficult to speculate on what they’d want in return.
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