When you look at the contract the Chicago Cubs gave Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano’s 3-year, $39-million contract might not seem like a big deal.
But in fact, for the Pittsburgh Pirates, this was every bit just as big. The Liriano deal is now the biggest free agent contract handed out by the organization, ever.
Like all-time forever.
Surpassing Russell Martin’s contract by more than double, Liriano’s deal proves that not only is the ownership truly ready to open up their pocket books to keep a winning team in town but also shows how the conception of playing in Pittsburgh for the Pirates have changed.
Make no mistake, Liriano’s expected AAV ($13-million) is a bargain compared to baseball standards, especially considering the year he had and that he will likely slip into the top of the rotation again.
Don’t believe it? According to Sports Contracts.com, only three pitchers are set to play the 2015 season with an AAV of $13-million – Liriano, John Danks and Edwin Jackson.
A comparison of how the 2014 season went about for the trio of pitchers,
| Player | IP | ERA | xFIP | Opp. Avg | GB% | K% | SwStr% | BABIP |
| Francisco Liriano | 162 1/3 | 3.38 | 3.40 | .215 | 54.4% | 25.3% | 13.6% | .280 |
| John Danks | 193 | 4.74 | 4.62 | .266 | 42.3% | 15.1% | 8% | .291 |
| Edwin Jackson | 140 | 6.33 | 4.12 | .296 | 39.4% | 19.4% | 10.8% | .352 |
To no surprise, Liriano clearly outpitched the other two as he was one of the top two pitchers on a ball club that won 88-games (even though he only won a total of seven games).
Some of the numbers would lead you to believe Danks and Jackson will rebound – which would surprise almost no one – but the fact remains that when it comes to his ‘peers’, Liriano is by far bargain.
Liriano was able to miss bats (13.6 of his strikes swung at were missed) and keep the ball on the ground (54.4% of the balls hit into play were on the ground), two key elements in maintaining success.
At his current AAV, Liriano smashes the competition, but how would he fare against some of the starting pitchers making more than him?
Looking at some of the players who are gradually ahead of him in AAV, including one who signed an $100-million contract last offseason – it still isn’t a competition.
| Player | IP | ERA | xFIP | AVG | GB% | K% | SwStr% | BABIP |
| Francisco Liriano | 162.1 | 3.38 | 3.40 | .215 | 54.4% | 25.3% | 13.6% | .280 |
| Anibal Sanchez ($16 mil) | 126 | 3.43 | 3.56 | .225 | 45.7% | 19.8% | 9.3% | .277 |
| C.J. Wilson ($15.5 mil) | 175.2 | 4.51 | 4.11 | .254 | 47.8% | 19.8% | 7.3% | .306 |
| Mark Buehrle ($14.5 mil) | 202 | 3.39 | 4.09 | .283 | 43.7% | 13.9% | 6.3% | .316 |
| Homer Bailey ($17.5 mil) | 145 | 3.71 | 3.53 | .243 | 50.6% | 20.5% | 11.0% | .286 |
Homer Bailey signed a six year, $105-million contract last off season paying him an average of $17.5 million. Of any player listed here, he may be the most comparable in terms of 2014 statistics. Even then Liriano still leads in each and every category. Anibal Sanchez is a very good number three pitcher, possible a two on other teams, he makes $3-million more than Liriano per year.
Maybe one year isn’t a fair comparison, but when you consider the money that the Cubs gave Lester – who is only a year younger than Liriano – after one bounce back season, the Pirates came away with a steal on this deal. Make it no secret either, the bulk of the ‘big money’ Lester got was due to 2014, not his overall work the last few seasons.
| Jon Lester | IP | ERA | xFIP | AVG | GB % | K % | SwStr % | BABIP |
| 2014 | 219.2 | 2.46 | 3.10 | .233 | 42.4% | 24.9% | 9.9% | .299 |
| 2013 | 213.1 | 3.75 | 3.90 | .252 | 45.0% | 19.6% | 8.4% | .300 |
| 2012 | 205.1 | 4.82 | 3.82 | .269 | 49.2% | 19.0% | 8.7% | .312 |
| 2011 | 191.2 | 3.47 | 3.62 | .233 | 50.5% | 22.8% | 8.7% | .286 |
Looks like one year is all the sample size you need, doesn’t it?
All the talk about the AAV, what may be even more impressive is the fact the Pirates didn’t have to extend the contract over a long period. The Pirates won’t have a lot of money riding on a player pitching in his mid-30s.
Will Lester be $25.8-million when his contract is nearly up and is 35/36 years old? We will only be able to tell but history certainly is on his, or Chicago’s, side.
Considering that there are going to be five pitchers that are going to be making an AAV of $25-million or more this season, getting such a vital part of their success back for a fraction of that – is a complete and utter win for the Pirates.
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