Along with Columbus, Phoenix, and Atlanta, the Florida Panthers have been one of the NHL’s most troubled franchises.
In 1996, the Panthers made it all the way to the Stanley Cup final where they lost to the Colorado Avalanche and the future seemed as bright for them as it would be for their state rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, when they won the Stanley Cup in 2004.
But since 2000, the Panthers have only made the Stanley Cup playoffs once and attendance has dropped off significantly. You can get away with being a doormat hockey team for several years in Toronto and Edmonton but not in Miami.
This year the Panthers are playing well and are in contention for a playoff spot but are averaging just over 9,000 fans for their games this season. Panthers ownership and management are hoping that the improved play will lure fans back but obviously it will take time to undo the damage 13 years of non-competitive hockey has done.
While there is no Phoenix or Atlanta-level crisis yet, the very fact that rumors are circulating about a possible franchise shift should cause concerns for the Panthers. If attendance stays down despite improved play, speculation and tangible reasons for moving to Quebec will increase.
For the NHL, there are several reasons to keep the Panthers where they are.
1. Like Atlanta, south Florida is a large market and far more valuable than Quebec.
2. Shifting Florida means that Tampa Bay and Carolina lose their closest division rival.
3. If Florida is shifted to Quebec, it will be speculated that (along with Atlanta’s move to Winnipeg) hockey is not a “big four” sport in the United States and (more importantly) does not deserve a lucrative “big four” American television contract.
4. It will be another personal blow to Bettman, who sold the policy of placing new NHL franchises in unfamiliar American hockey markets as a way of getting “big four” respect and that lucrative American television contract to the NHL Board of Governors. It has been his policy since he became Commissioner and there have been several of these type of franchises that lose money consistently. A shift of Florida (along with Atlanta and the near-shift of Phoenix) would confirm that this policy was wrong from the start. It also means that several cities in Canada and the northern United States where hockey is loved and there would be no problem selling tickets have been without hockey while these “experiments” failed.
It should also be remembered that there are genuine fans of hockey in the Miami area who have supported the Panthers through the bad years and it would be a shame to deprive them of their team just when they are starting to play better. So league expansion instead of a franchise shift would be a better policy.
Additionally, there are also good reasons for shifting the Panthers to Quebec as well.
1. In 2010, Bettman made a tour of the three cities that lost their NHL franchises (Winnipeg, Quebec, Hartford) and stated that the league would welcome them back if they met certain terms (good ownership, proper NHL rink, adequate fan base). Winnipeg complied and Quebec is complying, so Bettman can hardly go back on his word. The NHL wants balanced conferences with an equal number of teams, so while moving Phoenix to Quebec would make things even more unbalanced, there would be no problem shifting Florida to Quebec (or to a western city).
2. This in turn would mean that NHL expansion could be postponed indefinitely if the league so wishes.
3. It would also mean that if the NHL does expand, it would only have to be by two western teams to balance up the league to a symmetrical 32. Currently things are awkward if the unofficial commitment to Quebec is to be kept. It means that the NHL expand by two teams including Quebec now and balance up the league later in a future expansion, or expand by four teams now – Quebec and three western cities.
4. While the Quebec market is not as good as South Florida, it is not that much of a drop in value, consisting of eastern Quebec province and the Maritime provinces. If the NHL can accept small Winnipeg, it will not have any problem with Quebec.
For now, the Florida “experiment” will go on a little longer. The NHL will continue to give the team every opportunity to turn itself around. But if an improved team does not improve attendance, Quebec and its new arena will be an increasingly viable and attractive option.
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