Sometimes we just aren’t ourselves. We have a bad break here, an unlucky streak there, we feel like nothing is going our way, so we get into a funk. I had one stretch like this while I was in college. It seemed like everything in the entire universe was working against me. It seemed like I was a minute late to every class, I studied the wrong material a couple times, I missed a letter grade in multiple classes by a fraction of a point, my car broke down, and I broke my cell phone. Hell, my fantasy team sucked too. I got into a funk.
Now, I know that some of these things are partly (if not mostly) my fault, and if I had been more responsible, things might have turned out differently. That is what I am getting at. I realized that I couldn’t predict the unlucky breaks or bounces, but if I stuck to my guns and started acting like I always had instead of being an irresponsible prick, then everything would work out. And it did. The next semester was one of the best I had in college.
What I’m ranting about here is that it’s possible to bounce back after a rough stretch and get back to being you and doing what you do best. In this series, I’m going to go position-by-position and talk about players who had sub-par 2014s who I think will bounce back in 2015. I am absolutely not trying to say that these guys are irresponsible pricks like I was during my rough patch, just that I think their respective 2014s were aberrations, and they still have some good baseball left in them.
First up: Catchers.
Next: First Basemen Poised to Bounce Back in 2015
Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates
2014 Stats (122 games): .231 BA, 18 HR, 56 RBI, 46 R, 8 SB
Those who follow the Pirates and those who drafted/owned Alvarez in fantasy leagues know that his 2014 was… tumultuous… to say the least. The 2013 NL home run co-champ suffered a major fall from grace, going from budding star to flat-out benched by the time injuries ended his season. His shortcomings in strikeouts, walks, batting average, etc. are well documented, but no one expected greatness in those departments anyway. It’s the power that made Pedro Alvarez valuable in the past, and the lack thereof that made him almost worthless in fantasy and a liability in real life. He posted career-worst numbers (since he became the full-time third baseman) across the board in virtually every category except for, surprisingly, strikeout rate, walk rate, and OBP. He bettered his 2013 strikeout rate by about 5%, his walk rate by about 2%, and his OBP by about 18%, but his slugging, ISO, HR/FB rate, and IF/FB rate all took significant hits. This is not to mention his revolting defense at third base, which turned out to be the straw that broke Clint Hurdle’s hip, or something (Get well soon, Clint!).
All of this sabermetric mumbo jumbo tells me that perhaps El Toro was consciously trying to become more than just a power hitter in 2014. His batting average and BABIP were about on par with what we’ve come to expect from him despite a better contact rate, but the improvements in plate discipline (K%, BB%) are a good sign. The loss in power though, is a head scratcher. As I mentioned, his slugging, ISO, HR/FB%, and IF/FB% (stats reflective of and related to power) were all way off of his career marks, so there is reasonable hope that 2014 was somewhat of an aberration.
I think that there were several things conspiring against Alvarez in 2014. I’ll just go ahead and list them: slow start, a terrible case of the yips, dings and dents here and there, getting benched several weeks at a time, and a crushed psyche. The last one seemed like his biggest problem to me, as every bad thing that happened just seemed to throw another boulder onto his burden. Hopefully, motivated in a contract year, with a fresh start at a new position (Oh yeah, forgot to mention, the Pirates have cleared the way for him to be the full-time first baseman) with little-to-no competition for at-bats, we will see Pedro Alvarez bounce back in a big way in 2015.
2015 Projection: .241 BA, 28 HR, 80 RBI, 68 R, 5 SB
Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers
2014 Stats (42 games): .247 BA, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 19 R, 0 SB
Rangers fans and fantasy owners alike were panicking when Fielder was having a terrible start to 2014. Over the past decade or so, Fielder had become the model of consistency and durability, only missing 8 out of a possible 1296 games between 2006 and 2013. So when the guy who was always good for .280-290, 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI started sucking, it raised a few eyebrows. Eventually we found out that Fielder was suffering from an injury similar to the one that caused Peyton Manning to miss the 2011 NFL season, and underwent surgery to fix it, thus ending his 2014.
My guess that Fielder is going to bounce back in 2015 is purely that, a guess, as we have no idea how well he is going to heal from neck fusion surgery. If he is back to full health, I expect Fielder to get back to his old ways and put up All-Star-caliber numbers, albeit with no protection in the lineup save for Adrian Beltre.
2015 Projection: .280 BA, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 75 R, 0 SB
Billy Butler, Oakland Athletics
2014 Stats (151 games): .271 BA, 9 HR, 66 RBI, 57 R, O SB
Yes, they gave him a ridiculous amount of money, yes, Billy Beane may possibly be certifiably insane, yes, it’s possible Beane signed Butler because he loves guys named Billy, but I think Billy Butler will actually be pretty good for the A’s. Here’s a guy who hits about .290 with 15-20 home runs every year, and all of a sudden goes .271 and 9 in 2014. Looking deeper into his stats, nothing in 2014 seems out of the ordinary compared to his career numbers, until you look at his swing percentages. Simply put, he started swinging at more pitches both inside and outside of the strike zone than he had in the past, and it didn’t produce better contact. A player who had made a name for himself with good plate discipline suddenly lost some of that discipline. For what reason, I’m not sure. Is he aging? Well, yeah, we all are, but he’s only 28. Did the bad Royals offense bring him down with it? I think so. I think he was pressing a bit, trying to make up for the underwhelming performance of what were supposed to be the Royals best hitters (looking at you Hosmer, Gordon, and Aoki). With that in mind, I expect Billy Butler to put up borderline top 20 1B numbers splitting time between 1B and DH with Brandon Moss.
2015 Projection: .285 BA, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 64 R, 1 SB
Also watch out for:
Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles (probably won’t hit 50 homers again, but could certainly hit 30+ again)
Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (he’s still super talented. If he could just get over his streakiness…)
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