While much of the focus in MLS this week is going to Sunday’s MLS Cup, next Wednesday marks a significant day for every team. For the first time since 2011, MLS will have an Expansion Draft. With Orlando City SC and New York City FC entering the league, both teams will be able to take 10 players each from current MLS rosters to help build their squad for their inaugural MLS season in 2015. Each team will however get to protect some of their key players. There are however a number of complex rules to this draft, because MLS. Each team needs to be careful how they navigate the 2014 MLS Expansion Draft.
LA Galaxy MLS Expansion Draft Preview
There are several key features: Orlando City and NYC will alternate selecting players, Orlando City has the first pick. There will be ten rounds, thus each team will get ten players. There are no trades or swapping of picks in the draft. Teams are allowed to protect 11 players from their senior and supplemental roster (that’s about 30 players). Once a team has had a player selected from their roster, they will get a 12th protected player spot. Once a team has had two of its players selected, it will be eliminated from the expansion draft. No team will have more than two players taken from them in the expansion draft.
Designated Players are not automatically protected. If a DP has a no trade clause in their contract, they must be protected and will count toward the 11 man protected roster. Generation Adidas players who have not graduated by the end of the 2014 season and Home Grown players (HGPs) who are part of the supplemental roster will automatically be protected. They will not count towards the 11 man protected roster. All other players are eligible for the draft and must be protected.
There are specific rules for the number of international players who can be protected. The LA Galaxy have nine international players on their senior roster, so they must protect at least three.
Click here for the full list of roster rules and regulations and here for a full list of Homegrown Players. There will be a half day trade window on December 8th.
So, now that we’re all confused by how this thing works, here’s how things stack up for the Galaxy:
Designated Players (2): Omar Gonzalez, Robbie Keane (Landon’s retiring, so he won’t be in the draft obviously)
Generation Adidas and Home Grown Players (6): Bradford Jamieson IV, Jack McBean, Raul Mendiola, Oscar Sorto, Jose Villarreal, Gyasi Zardes
International Players (9): Rob Friend (Canada), Baggio Husidic (Bosnia-Herzegovina), Stefan Ishizaki (Sweden), Juninho (Brazil), Robbie Keane (Ireland), Leonardo (Brazil), Raul Mendiola (Mexico), Jaime Penedo (Panama), Marcelo Sarvas (Brazil)
Who the Galaxy already have protected:
Zardes is the only HGP who for sure is not automatically protected. Each team is to tell MLS who of their HGPs has graduated to the senior roster. It’s a bit ambiguous as to whether teams inform MLS at the end of the regular season or their season. MLS has not made these decisions public at the time I’m writing this. Besides Zardes, only one HGP has played more than 30 minutes in MLS this season (Mendiola, 57 minutes). Most of them spent the majority of the year with LA Galaxy II. My guess is that other than possibly Villareal and McBean (because they’ve played more in previous seasons), everyone besides Zardes is already safe.
Who absolutely must be protected:
This list is pretty simple and obvious. Firstly, protect your DP players. Keane and Gonzalez make two. Protect your experienced and top starters. Zardes, Sarvas, Juninho, DeLaGarza, Penedo. That makes seven. This also fulfilled the international requirement. From here it gets a bit tricky.
Who should be protected:
The list has four openings. There’s still the four primary wide players in Ishizaki, Husidic, Rogers, and Gargan. There’s the super sub forward Alan Gordon. There’s Todd Dunivant who was injured most of the year but has been a big part of this team in years past. With DeLaGarza playing fullback at times this year, two of the three true center backs are not protected, Leonardo and Meyer, both of who have proven their worth at times. Then there’s a young Kenney Walker (who could be a starter in waiting at CM), and one of the better young back up keepers in Brian Rowe.
Ishizaki and Husidic are locks for me. With Donovan’s retirement, you need to keep Ishizaki because of his width. Husidic can play all four midfield positions. Both do well starting or coming off the bench. That makes nine.
I would go with Rogers and Gordon as my final two. Gargan had a complete turn around this year, but I think you can afford to leave him unprotected because DeLaGarza is protected. I protect Rogers because he’s had a total career revival at LB. The other two LBs are also serious question marks. I don’t see James Riley back next year because of the injury and he isn’t as valuable as Dunivant. Dunivant is coming off an injury as well, but he’s a major part of the veteran presence on the team. He’s a decent cap hit at $140 k and is about to turn 34, but would be a serviceable backup to Rogers. Lock up the most valuable LB in Rogers.
I protect Gordon because he’s the Galaxy’s best super sub and with all the noise he’s made since be traded from San Jose (14 caps, 5 goals, 1 assist), he’s a hot enough commodity to be drafted.
A top heavy bench is a good thing:
The Galaxy have one of the best rosters in MLS. They have several decent bench players and plenty of youthful talent waiting in the wings. The fact of the matter is 20 players from 18 teams are going to be selected. Most of the league will probably lose a player. While unlikely, a team could lose two.
One benefit the Galaxy have is that their bench is top heavy. Their top 9 players in minutes this year played at least 2000 minutes each in the regular season. Their top 14 played at least 900 minutes. It’s the same guys starting and the same ones coming off the bench. So the experienced and important players on the team is consolidated and easy to fit into the 11 protected spots.
Over half of their 30 man roster played less than 400 minutes this season. Most of the talent in those 15 bottom players are home growns who are likely already protected. The Galaxy don’t need to protect all the talent OC and NYC would be interested in. They just need to protect their quality better than the other teams protect their players.
With 11 protected players each, teams are likely to protect their key starters, then if there’s room, a combination of the super subs and talented youth. Most of LA’s youth is already safe. Landon Donovan retiring makes it a bit easier. Bruce Arena has 11 slots for 9 regular starters and 3 players who were either starting or the first guys off the bench. Most teams don’t have that luxury. Their youth aren’t all HGPs. They have more of a rotating starting lineup or have 5-6 players being regularly used subs. Because of this,there is a real but unlikely possibility that no Galaxy player is selected in the draft.
Who LA is most likely to lose:
Based on my protected roster, the obvious choice is Dan Gargan. He’s a relatively cheap work horse. He can be your regular starting right back. Gargan isn’t one of the top full backs in the league, but he’s consistent and will contribute to the attack. I’d be sad to see him go.
If McBean or Villareal are not automatically protected as HGPs, they have an outside shot of going as well. Expansion teams must offer supplemental roster players a senior level roster spot (i.e. more money). None of LA’s other HGPs are good enough yet. McBean and Villareal however saw some minutes with the first team in 2013 and could be ready to step into a bench role for a new team.
Dunivant could be selected, but as previously mentioned, it would be a big risk due to age, injury, and cap hit. Both teams have their goalie situation figured out (former Galaxy keeper Josh Saunders is with NYC, Tally Hall is with OC), so Rowe is safe. A team might bite on Leonardo based on his recent form. With how bad he has been at times in the past, I would be ok with it. It would remove the potential for him to let the Galaxy down again in the future. The only other players remotely on the expansion draft raydar would be Meyer and Walker because of their age and upside. Meyer’s ready to assume a full time starting position in my mind. Walker could be a young substitute, similar to McBean and Villareal.
Disagree with my protection list? Think one of the expansion teams would target a player I haven’t mentioned? Let me know in the comments below or get at me on twitter.
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