During last weekend’s rivalry games in the Big Ten, two seminal moments helped shape what we’re about to see in Indianapolis on Saturday night. Wisconsin would triumph over Minnesota and take hold of Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the 11th consecutive year, thus clinching the West Division and ensuring their appearance. Ohio State had already done so the week before, but when J.T. Barrett went down against Michigan it sent shockwaves throughout college football and quite possibly altered the outlook in terms of what to expect when the Badgers and Buckeyes take the field.
I know some people like to roll their eyes at the Vegas betting lines, but it’s quite telling to have observed how much it has changed in the wake of Barrett’s injury. Even though the match up had not been finalized at the time, the Buckeyes were installed as 4.5 point favorites in a hypothetical contest with Wisconsin assuming Barrett was healthy. Now that he’s not, the Badgers find themselves favored by 3.5 to four points. So if you’re wondering how many points the redshirt freshman quarterback is worth to OSU’s hopes in this game, the sports books say roughly eight.
Big Ten Championship Game Preview
Cardale Jones will take the reins as Ohio State’s starting quarterback in the most important game of the year so far as regards the team’s hopes of appearing in the College Football Playoff. The redshirt sophomore has similar characteristics to Barrett in terms of playing style, specifically as it relates to his ability to make plays with his feet. During the Buckeyes spring practice, it was actually Jones who was getting the majority of reps as a starter when Braxton Miller was recovering from his original shoulder injury he sustained in last year’s Orange Bowl.
Whenever we’re talking about a “running quarterback,” there’s always that question about how much does a given player at that position contribute to the ground game depending on the offensive philosophy employed. Buckeyes’ head coach Urban Meyer was asked about this at the beginning of the week and gave an interesting response: “A lot of times like the scramble for the touchdown, I think that’s what makes the great quarterback. Those are the Steve Youngs of the world, and that keeps drives alive. And the scramble changes the game of football if you have a guy that can move back there. The direct runs, we limit those. Those aren’t called very often,” Meyer said.
So even in a system like Meyer’s that is portrayed as being amenable to quarterbacks with a knack for taking the ball and running it themselves, there are limitations. I’m bringing this up because the consensus seems to be that Jones will have to continuously make plays on the ground due to his relative lack of experience throwing the ball. Though he will certainly need to make those crucial third down scrambles to keep the offense on the field, it will be imperative for him to get the ball in the air to maintain a level of multi-dimensionality to the offense.
Don’t discount the role that freshman hybrid back Jalin Marshall has to play here. In high school, Marshall was a standout dual-threat quarterback and though he wasn’t recruited to Ohio State in that capacity he has lined up in the wildcat every once in a while this season. Expect a steady dose of Marshall in that formation as well as coming in motion on jet sweep packages where he utilizes his exceptional speed to initially beat the defense horizontally before going vertical for first downs and more.
Speaking of the defense the Buckeyes will have to face, I mentioned earlier this week in my piece about the implications of J.T. Barrett’s injury that the accomplishments of this Badger unit is lost in the fog due to all the hype surrounding their Heisman hopeful Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Aranda has to be commended for the job he has done in putting together a defense that flat out shuts opposing offenses down, conceding the second fewest total yards (260.3) in the nation.
Pay attention to how well Ohio State is able to deal with extra pass rushers, especially if they get caught in unfavorable down and distance situations. Wisconsin loves to mix things up in terms of bringing disguised and delayed blitzes that make pass protection a real challenge. Though the Buckeye offensive line has made huge strides between now and the start of the season, they will be facing a Badger front seven that will in all likelihood be their biggest challenge of the year in terms of giving the quarterback time to throw.
Can Ohio State’s defense find a way to stymie Gordon? It hasn’t been done that much, if at all, this season which is why an appearance in New York next week for the Heisman Trophy ceremony is all but certain for him regardless of the final result in Indianapolis. What’s a tad unnerving going into this game is that the last two standout running backs the Buckeyes have faced, Tevin Coleman of Indiana and David Cobb of Minnesota, had monster games despite their respective teams coming up short in the final score. Those two players rushed for a combined 373 yards and six touchdowns in losing efforts. I don’t know about you, but I’d be a little worried at the prospect of facing Gordon in a climate-controlled environment when he rushed for over 400 yards in three quarters against Nebraska in the snow.
What makes Gordon’s final regular season tally of 2,260 rushing yards and 29 total touchdowns that more impressive is the relative lack of production at quarterback all season long. The Badgers have relied on a two-pronged attack of Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave for the most part, even though Stave has pretty much garnered the majority of the reps, especially down the stretch. In both Wisconsin losses, Gordon’s exceptional play was essentially negated by less than stellar performances at quarterback. McEvoy threw two interceptions and had only 50 passing yards against LSU, while Stave saw the ball get picked off three times in the upset loss to Northwestern. All in all, the Badgers rank ninth worst nationally in passing offense averaging 147.8 yards per game.
As is usually the case in games of this magnitude, the field will be chock full of players who’ve garnered all-conference and national recognition. 15 players amongst both teams made either the coaches or media all-Big Ten first or second team. OSU defensive lineman Joey Bosa took home conference defensive player and defensive lineman of the year honors and is a finalist for the Lombardi (best lineman/linebacker in the nation) and Bednarik (nation’s best defensive player) Awards. Gordon was named Big Ten offensive player and running back of the year in addition to being amongst a Big Ten triumvirate of rushers (Tevin Coleman and Ameer Abdullah of Nebraska) who were named finalists for the Doak Walker (best running back in the nation) Award.
Wisconsin can certainly play spoiler with a win and would vault themselves into a New Year’s Six bowl if they can pull it off, likely the Orange Bowl against whoever loses between Florida State and Georgia Tech. For Ohio State, the good old eye test is probably going to come into play as regards whether the committee will insert them into the Playoff should they come out victorious and get help. If Jones manages the game well and the Buckeyes win convincingly while getting help from most likely TCU (and possibly Baylor), they might be able to pull this one off in the most bizarre and unlikely way imaginable.
No more than four months ago, Cardale Jones was likely the third quarterback on the depth chart. Now he finds himself thrust into a championship spotlight as the go-to guy for the Scarlet and Gray with nary a single start under his belt. Whether or not he cashes in on the opportunity or crashes out from the enormity of the stage remains to be seen, but hey, Gus Johnson is doing the play-by-play on FOX so it’ll be a real spectacle on all fronts if you’re watching at home.
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