The pinnacle of the 2014 MLS season is upon us. The red hot New England Revolution and the ‘Team of Destiny’ Los Angeles Galaxy will meet on Sunday in MLS Cup. The media is focusing on Landon Donovan playing in the final game of his career. As much as I would love to pile more onto LD Love Fest 2014, Sunday is not a Hall of Fame induction, statue unveiling, or jersey retirement. Sunday is a soccer game. The praise can wait for what the Galaxy hope is a fifth MLS Cup. Now, what is going to decide who takes home the hardware?
10. Whether or not the Galaxy score on their first chances:
Most finals start off a bit tentative. Teams feel each other out for 20 minutes, then someone gets into a rhythm. Once that happens, expect LA to get into their possession-and-width game. Expect New England to stay organized and try and counter. The Galaxy had way more shots and chances in both home playoff games. Against RSL, they finished and RSL was bad defensively. Against Seattle, they didn’t finish as well and Seattle was organized. If the Galaxy score on one of their early chances, they can get on a roll, and then it’s all but game over for New England. If we get to the point where everyone starts thinking “LA has had a lot of chances, they probably should have scored by now,” the Revs will build confidence. The Galaxy need to finish their their early chances. The Revs cannot give up open looks.
9. Zardes ending his scoring drought:
Gyasi Zardes still has not scored or assisted on a goal this post season. He has only two shots on goal in four games. He’s continued to play the high press well. He’s been a decent passer. The kid has not gotten open looks as often as he did in the regular season. Some of it’s the pressure; he is only 23. Zardes needs to do a better job getting into good positions to catalyze the offense. That will help pull New England’s defense apart and create opportunities. If he gets a chance himself, the kid needs to finish them off.
8. Davies making the back line work:
From one forward to another, Davies has had a rebirth this season as the lone forward for the Revs. While only scoring 3 goals in 18 regular season games, Davies has 4 goals in 4 playoff games. His most important role in the final however isn’t necessarily scoring, it’s making LA’s center backs work. Davies is not going to be much a challenge in the air, but he must demand attention as the forward. Him drawing Omar Gonzalez or his partner will create space for the Revs go ‘Happy Feet’ on those openings.
Word is DeLaGarza we be ready for Sunday. Him starting at center back will make it tougher on New England. Gonzalez will match up with Davies and win most of those battles. While space will open up for someone on New England, they’ll be met by LA’s fastest defender. DeLaGarza is used to match ups with technically skilled and fast players like Jaoa Plata and Mauro Diaz. While Lee Nguyen is a slightly different monster, that’s a match up LA will live with. If Gonzalez is paired with Meyer or Leonardo, Davies drawing attention from one of them leaves a favorable match up for many of New England’s attackers.
7. Which Jaime Penedo shows up:
It’s been a weird run of form for Penedo. He has been excellent the last two years, aside from some dumb mistakes. He had a bad end the regular season. In the post season, he was fabulous against RSL, acrobatic against Seattle at home, and a nervous hot mess at CenturyLink. As I see it, Penedo has three types of games: (A) Rimando-like, (B) good overall but makes a costly mistake, or (C) just trying to survive. When he’s on his game, he’s one of the best goalies in MLS and North America. When he’s type B, he can cost the Galaxy the game. If he’s type C (like last game), he’s a concern but can survive.
In Seattle, Penedo bobbled a shot that lead to a goal. Other than that, he handled the aerial attack ok and was decent everywhere else. Crosses that get right in front of the 6-yard-box are his nightmare, as they are for many goalies. But when he’s type C, every cross is a heart-stopper. As poor as he is at those times, LA can make up for it in other areas. Last game, it was Gonzalez and Leonardo setting up a no fly zone in the box. The Revs don’t cross the ball much, so that’s not a worry, but their speed and skill is lethal to dumb mistakes. The back line cannot make any of those, especially Penedo. While type C Penedo is a worry for 90 minutes, type B Penedo is the most dangerous because you don’t see his brain fart coming. Which Penedo we see will have a big impact.
6. Teal Bunbury, Donovan, and flak duels:
Wide play is going to be a huge part of this game; both teams make opponents cover so much ground. Wing players going forward is could be similar to the conference finals. Rogers is going to stay at home usually because of Bunbury (as opposed to Yedlin). New England will see lots of overlap from their opponent on their left side in Ishizaki and Gargan/DeLaGarza (similar to Sam and Eckersley). The most conservative full back will be Kevin Alston (kind of like Leo Gonzalez). Bunbury gets matched up with a world class player in Donovan (instead of Thierry Henry).
There aren’t any tactical surprises here, it’s simply who executes better. Rogers must defend Bunbury one-on-one. Farrell can’t let Donovan get in behind him and has to watch for Keane going wide left. Tiereny and Alston need to close down Ishizaki and can’t let the RB get to the touch line with space. May the best man win.
5. Jermaine Jones vs. the Brazilians:
The two halves of Leg 2 in Seattle were night and day for Juninho and Sarvas. If the opposing midfield is able to separate them, LA has trouble holding the ball and their back line goes unprotected. When they link up, they’re one of the best midfield combos in the league. Jones has made a career out of dominating the midfield. If he can be a monkey wrench, he can slow down the Galaxy machine. He needs to be smart about it though.
With tackles like this, Jones has built up a reputation in MLS (on top of his USMNT reputation). An early yellow card, and Jones has to be more careful. And if he misses on a tackle and one of the Brazilians spreads it wide, Jones is behind the play and this happens. Jones needs to be smart about walking the line. The Brazilians have to respond well to being roughed up. They’ve been hit-or-miss against Alonso in the past. They need to hit on Sunday.
4. Robbie Keane’s finishing:
Other than being a good creator, the 2014 MVP did not show up against Seattle. I agree with Matt Doyle that he looks like he’s playing hurt. Keane has done well creating and getting open. He’s had plenty of chances. But outside of the 5-0 drubbing of RSL, he has no goals and no assists. He doesn’t need to improve tremendously. The Galaxy just need one of his patented moments of brilliance.
3. Jose Goncalves playing with a head on the swivel:
Goncalves was Defender of the Year in 2013 but has had an up and down year in 2014. He’s been better in the playoffs, but the Red Bulls were able to pull his back line apart at times. Goncalves is primarily a reactionary defender. Reacting does not get it done against LA. You have to anticipate and put the fire out before it starts. Chad Marshall did that last series. At some point in this game, the Galaxy are going to get going and will come at Goncalves in quickly in waves. He has to be alert. The coaching staff better have done their homework in preparing the back line well for the Galaxy’s style of attack. They need to see the play a step before it happens, Goncalves especially.
2. Emotions and motivation:
As the Galaxy referenced earlier this week, they’ve bonded through the events of this past season. They have motivation from Donovan’s swan song and the death of AJ DeLaGarza’s son. They’ve got some ‘Team of Destiny’ mojo Hollywood cannot replicate. Furthermore, this team responds to galvanization with their backs against the wall.
On the other side, New England is 12-1-2 in their last 15 games. The only loss was to the Columbus Crew in September, who they beat in the playoffs. Jermaine Jones and Lee Nguyen are the Revolution’s Ulysses S. Grant and Andrew Jackson. This is not the same team that lost 5-1 at the Stub Hub Center in the regular season. Many are calling them underdogs, but they are not afraid of LA.
This game is going to match two unstoppable forces, motivation from death, a gut-check, and history in the making vs. motivation from a run of form, a great signing, and ending a history of misery. Emotions are going to run high on Sunday and something has to give.
1. The Revs counter attack:
While Columbus lost 7-3 on aggregate they created chances in both legs. They hit the post. Bobby Shuttleworth came up big. I don’t think the Crew could have won that series, but it could have been closer. An argument could be made that New York was better in the first leg against New England and played them even in the second leg. The Revs are going to give up chances. They advanced to the finals because they got one good counter opportunity at Red Bull Arena and made it count. The Galaxy advanced because when they needed to shut Seattle down offensively, they did. LA has the stingiest defense in the league, but they cannot afford to get caught with numbers deep. New England has to challenge the full backs and force whomever is paired with Gonzalez into a one-on-one with their technically gifted players. They must create. LA must defend like they did in the final 30 minutes in Seattle. If you score, you have a chance to win. If you do not let your opponent score, you cannot lose.
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