A few years ago I finally got around to reading Moneyball. The book made Oakland Athletics’ GM Billy Beane out to be a rockstar for the way he took his small market team with a small payroll to the playoffs year after year. For a math geek like myself Beane’s fabled use of statistics to help build his team is one the major things that has generated my love of baseball statistics today. However, when I saw Beane traded Josh Donaldson, basically the Athletics’ best player, when he still was under team control until 2018 I immediately thought Beane had officially gone crazy. Upon further review though this might actually turn out to be a smart move.
The loss of Donaldson and his offensive capabilities are difficult to swallow as he has posted back to back season of wRC+ over 125 with 147 in 2013 and 129 in 2014. Although his average dropped in 2014 compared to 2013 Donaldson was by far the best offensive player on the roster. The question is why would Beane trade him?
The answer might be a lot clearer. There have been rumors linking the A’s to third baseman Chase Headley, which would allow them to move Lawrie to second to fill the hole that currently exists there. The money freed up from Donaldson would help them be able to sign Headley. However, I think Beane is looking at this in a different way. Lawrie is only 24 (will be 25 before start of season) and Donaldson is going to 29 for the 2015 season. While Donaldson is not yet at the point of steady decline his team controlled years will take him into that stage. Lawrie is still young with his theoretical peak years ahead of him. Typically players that debut as young as Lawrie did-age 21- have the best years of their early career right away and then decline until around age 25 or so when they begin to progress into their peak seasons. However, Lawrie is not the only key part of this trade as the prospects that the A’s got back have significant value. Franklin Barreto is only 18 years old and is considered one of the best SS prospects in baseball. This now allows the A’s to pair him with SS Daniel Robertson, the organization’s top prospect according to MLB.com. Having two top prospects at a premium position like SS allows Beane organizational flexibility when it comes to making future trade deadline deals.
Additionally, the Athletic’s got back LHP Sean Nolin. Nolin is believed to be an MLB ready arm that should compete for a spot in the 2015 rotation. This is huge as the Athletics are losing Jon Lester to free agency. Like Barreto, Nolin is consider a talented prospect as a premium position; left-handed starting pitcher. The addition of Nolin to the potential rotation allows Beane to be even more flexible with his roster. Shortly after the Donaldson trade, the A’s were reported to be shopping Jeff Samardzija. The White Sox are the most heavily rumored team with SS Alexei Ramirez to be at the center of those discussions. Ramirez would immediately slot at the team’s starting SS and would be an improvement over last year’s SS Jed Lowrie who was lost to free agency. The talks are also rumored to include SS Tim Anderson the White Sox number two overall prospect and who would provide the A’s with yet another young movable piece to flip in the future.
Beane’s success has come from trading players away his star players when they are in their primes for a number of players with the ability to help him down the road. The trade of Donaldson may seem like a terrible idea on paper but in typical Beane fashion it is all part of a greater plan. The money saved from Donaldson provides Beane with payroll flexibility to upgrade second base and left field which are two weaknesses at the moment As Beane has shown in the past, the key to successful teams is the sum of the parts not necessarily the success of individual players.
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