Right now, everyone assumes the playoff picture is very clear. There are only nine remaining teams in the country that are still alive for the CFP. Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon still control their destinies as they have for the past few weeks. They are the undisputed top three teams in the country, though there can be some quibbles about the order.
Week 14 CFP Implications
The final spot, though, has some intrigue about it. Right now, Ohio State, TCU, and Baylor all have pretty similar resumes. Well, TCU’s is a bit ahead but they will all be equal if all three win their final game. J.T. Barrett’s broken ankle and Bryce Petty’s concussion have added a little bit more confusion for how to stack those three, but the discussion remains the same. Arizona is also still in the picture if they can upset Oregon a second time, though whether their significantly higher SOS and better wins is enough to jump a 1-loss team is anyone’s guess. Also, Kansas State has to remain in the conversation if they beat Baylor, though their Auburn loss is not quite looking as good as it did a few weeks ago.
Now, though, we have to discuss the possibility of chaos. There are four conferences with championship games next week, along with Kansas State’s game against Baylor. And I would say that TCU has no chance of a loss when Iowa State comes to visit, but the 2011 Oklahoma State team probably will remind me to actually let that game happen first.
The fascinating thing about this weekend is that every single competitor in a conference championship game has two losses or less. In the ACC, undefeated Florida State meets 10-2 Georgia Tech. The SEC sees 11-1 Alabama against 10-2 Missouri while the Big Ten pits 11-1 Ohio State versus 10-2 Wisconsin. And, as we mentioned above, 10-2 Arizona will challenge 11-1 Oregon for the Pac 12 title. And, with the exception of Arizona, none of the 2-loss teams involved are generally considered playoff contenders.
And these teams are discounted for good reasons. In both the ACC and SEC, even if the underdog manages to pull off the upset, they will not have a resume on par with the team they just beat. If Missouri beats Alabama, that will mark their first win over a Power 5 team with less than five losses. And while nonconference wins over Toledo and UCF are nothing to scoff at, they are not what makes up a playoff resume. Even if you add a win over Alabama to that, it will not match what Alabama has done. Alabama has defeated Auburn, LSU, and Mississippi State. And while that is not a major list, it more than outclasses Missouri’s resume, which has that ugly loss to Indiana indelibly stamped on it.
Similarly, Georgia Tech cannot have a better resume than Florida State, even if they beat the Seminoles. Georgia Tech would have two losses instead of Florida State’s one, both of which would be worse losses. And while wins over Georgia, Clemson, and Florida State will slightly outweigh Florida State’s wins (over Clemson and Louisville), Florida State will still most likely have an overall better (or about equal) SOS than the Yellow Jackets. The committee hasn’t liked Florida State al year, but it will be hard to believe that they can see Georgia Tech ahead of them under any circumstances.
Now, Wisconsin could definitely pass Ohio State if they beat the Buckeyes. Both would have similar best wins (OSU over Michigan State and Wisconsin over Ohio State) and Ohio State would have the slightly better strength of schedule and losses, but not by nearly enough a margin to outweigh the head-to-head. However, even if complete chaos hits next week, Wisconsin would stay behind Alabama, the Pac 12 champ, Kansas State, and TCU. Wisconsin could technically be alive if Iowa State beats TCU, but Iowa State isn’t beating TCU.
Now, upsets in too many of these games could create extreme problems for the committee. How do you explain keeping Alabama or Florida State in over teams that just beat them? I know, I just explained it above, but it’s a lot harder to explain it once the decisions are made than it is to logically point out why those are the right decisions.
In an overlooked discussion, we need to remember that the top conference champion from the non-power conferences is guaranteed a spot in one of the New Year’s Day access bowls. All year, it’s been a debate who that will be with Marshall staying undefeated against one of the worst schedules in the country. Now, though, with Marshall losing to Western Kentucky, Boise State is obviously in the driver’s seat. They just pummeled 9-win Utah State and are one win away from retaining the title they earned last decade–they will be the “BCS Buster”, just in a different system. If they trip up against Fresno State, though, Northern Illinois and Memphis are waiting in the wings.
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