For the purposes of determining quality wins at the CFP Bubble Watch, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason that the gap between #25 and #26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between #24 and #25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP, Coaches’, and CFP rankings) or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of there being more than 25 Top 25 teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
With their losses this week, we eliminated Mississippi State, UCLA, Arizona State, and Georgia. Also, Kansas State is probably eliminated but we will leave them on the board for now. By my count, there are eight teams remaining who can actually still hope to make the CFP.
As an added feature for this final week, I will present the resumes of the two-loss teams playing in the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten championship games (as well as Mississippi State’s) for comparison so we can realize exactly why they are not alive, even if chaos happens.
The “Top 25 remaining” category is a little irrelevant this week because everyone only has one game left, so we have replaced it with the range of ranking of the team among several computer rankings (with outliers ignored) and the human polls.
In Right Now (i.e. controls own destiny):
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Florida State | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 40-60 | 1-5 |
The Seminoles SOS range is not so pretty, but it’s not as bad as some would have you believe. This resume is not bad overall and they will face a ranked Georgia Tech team in the ACC Championship Game. It is noteworthy that they are outside of the Top 10 of some computer power rankings, which is not good for them if the committee sticks with their subjective “game control” nonsense. They will have a better resume than Georgia Tech even if the Yellow Jackets beat them, which can make for an interesting dilemma for the committee if we see chaos this week.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Oregon | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 15-50 | 2-5 |
Half of Oregon’s games are against the Top 40 and while that isn’t an amazing number, it’s solid. Add in a chance to get revenge for their only loss (while they were missing a bunch of players on the offensive line to boot) and the Ducks know it’s win and in.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Alabama | 1-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1-15 | 1-2 |
Nine games against the Top 40 is absurd. Sure, they played three cupcakes, but everyone has those. This resume is incredible and, if a loss to Missouri is added, will still be competitive with some of the one-loss teams on the bubble. It will certainly still be better than Missouri’s resume (see below).
On the Bubble:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| TCU | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 25-60 | 3-5 |
That resume is pretty darn similar to Ohio State’s and Baylor’s, aside from having by far the best loss of this trio. This group is about as much of a bubble as you’ll ever see in college football. There is nothing really to separate anyone out of this group.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Baylor | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 40-90 | 5-15 |
This is a resume in need of a serious boost, which it can get with one game remaining against Kansas State. Will it be enough to jump TCU or Ohio State? Well, that’s anyone’s guess. Both Big 12 schools are squarely on the bubble because we can’t know which way the committee will judge them. At the end of the day, though, Baylor has played more teams in the Bottom 40 of college football than in the Top 40. That’s not how you make a case for a playoff berth.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Ohio State | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 2-0 | 45-60 | 3-9 |
Ohio State has only two games against the Top 40, which is very low. And while they have only played two teams outside the Top 80, this schedule is decidedly mediocre with eight games against the middle third of FBS. It’s not a completely false statement to say that Ohio State is relying on the eye test and some forgiveness for that loss, but the fact remains that their SOS is near the same ranges as Baylor, Florida State, and where TCU’s will end up. Getting a 10-2 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game will also add a slight boost and possibly give the Buckeyes a third desperately-needed quality win.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Arizona | 1-0 | 2-2 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 25-35 | 6-10 |
Arizona is on the bubble because we’re not sure what would happen if they beat Oregon. Two wins away from playing at home over a Top 5 team is something no one else can match, but will it be enough to jump over the one-loss bubble teams or do they need a little bit of help? They have some ugly computer numbers (that include MOV) because of close wins over bad teams early on in the season, but this team has come a very long way since then.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Kansas State | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 25-60 | 9-18 |
This is not much of a playoff resume, but add a win over Baylor to it and it suddenly becomes interesting. They need help from teams in front of them to get in, but they’re probably still alive… barely.
For Comparison:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Mississippi State | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 10-35 | 5-10 |
The Bulldogs have a decent resume but that 81+ number is ugly, though no worse than Baylor’s will be. They have one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country and that shows because they have some SOS numbers outside the Top 30 even though they play in the SEC West. Their top two wins are Auburn and LSU, both of which barely snuck into the Top 25. With more wins against the Bottom 40 than the Top 40, it’s hard to see this resume get into the playoff even if we see chaos this week.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Missouri | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 2-1 | 20-60 | 12-18 |
Why do I say Missouri is out even if they beat Bama? For starters, it would be their first Top 25 win, albeit a big one. Also, their Top 40 wins are all barely hanging on to the Top 40 (Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas) and a good chunk of their high rankings is due more to the SEC West than the East. None of this comes close to making up for that loss to Indiana.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Wisconsin | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 50-70 | 11-19 |
Maybe this resume can compete with Ohio State’s if the Badgers win, but it can’t compete with the rest of those teams at the top. Even if you add a loss to Alabama and Florida State, their resumes will still beat Wisconsin’s, as will the Pac-12 champion and the Baylor/Kansas State winner. Also, TCU’s chances of losing to Iowa State are miniscule. Sorry Bucky, it looks like that loss to Northwestern will cost you a chance at this year’s playoff.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | Ranking Range |
| Georgia Tech | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 6-1 | 2-0 | 40-50 | 10-18 |
Georgia Tech is closing fast with wins over Clemson and Georgia and they are the one team I actually considered bumping up into the “on the bubble” range. Their SOS is decent and they have only played two games against the Bottom 40. With a conference title, this resume looks similar to Ohio State’s, aside from that second loss. Ultimately, though, that second loss is going to cost them. Even if they beat Florida State, this resume will stay behind everyone that Wisconsin’s is behind. This committee seems to really not like Florida State’s performances this year, which makes me wonder about both Wisconsin and Georgia Tech jumping the ‘Noles if Georgia Tech wins this week, but ultimately, it doesn’t seem possible. The numbers are here and are just too far behind Florida State. I wouldn’t be shocked if the committee went against both the numbers and the ‘Noles, but it really shouldn’t happen.
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow me on Twitter – @Yesh222. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
For the latest in sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for?
Main Photo:
