Friday, the Oakland A’s traded their much regarded player, leader in the clubhouse, and all around dynamo, Josh Donaldson. His last play as an Oakland A may just be letting the game winning hit shoot under his glove and into left field in the AL Wild Card Game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiUVUAX1Rs
A’s Buy Low, Sell High: Josh Donaldson Fantasy Prospectus
Letting arguably the best all-around infielder in the game go, especially when he’s only 28 and under team control through his prime, is a risky move. Our David Spracale and Jamie Sayer have each written great articles breaking down the nitty-gritty of this trade and are worth your time to read.
As for me, the 2011-2012 fantasy baseball version of me is freaking out. After all, it was just a few years ago that Brett Lawrie was considered a top-5 third basemen because of his power/speed combo. Josh Donaldson, although he’s a few years older, couldn’t be found on a list of the top 300 players.
Oh my how things have changed.
In a few short years Josh Donaldson has since become one of the top real-life players in the game, largely thanks to his outstanding defensive play and great power. Lawrie, on the other hand, has sputtered since his impressive debut. Year after year fantasy owners have taken a flier on him late in drafts, hoping that his combination of talent and youth would produce great fantasy results. Year after year, they’ve been disappointed. This year’s reason for hope is that a change of scenery helps Lawrie find a way to bounce back.
Don’t hold your breath.
As for Donaldson? It’s easy to point to Toronto’s plus home run park as a boon to Donaldson’s value, as well as the big names protecting him in the lineup (if you believe in that sort of thing.) A contrarian might point out that Oakland’s no-name offense actually scored more runs in that spacious park, and that hitting home runs has never been his problem.
Before the trade Donaldson’s draft position was likely between 35 and 50. This was in part because the 2014 Oakland A’s got much of their production from different players at different times. In a word, they were flukey. Now, with the added stability of Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, it’s likely we see his draft position move up. Surely, he will be regarded as a safer pick, since he’s been traded to a team with some of the most consistent performers in the bigs. Additionally, Donaldson has also been a much better hitter on the road than at home. These factors will likely lead to him being drafted higher as a Toronto Blue Jay than he would have been as an Oakland A.
Call me a skeptic, but I don’t see 40+/120+ in his future.
Maybe it’s because I’ve watched Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols (to name just a few) fail to capitalize on their “lineup protection”, but sometimes baseball isn’t as simple as: Better lineup + Better park = Better numbers. I’ll pencil him in for usual serving of 25/85/.265 and be satisfied to pick him up in the fourth round. Outside of that, I’ll let another manager roll the dice on him in the third round because if that’s what it takes I’m not likely to pull the trigger. Simply put, he’s a better real life player than fantasy contributor.
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