Sometimes we just aren’t ourselves. We have a bad break here, an unlucky streak there, we feel like nothing is going our way, so we get into a funk. I had one stretch like this while I was in college. It seemed like everything in the entire universe was working against me. It seemed like I was a minute late to every class, I studied the wrong material a couple times, I missed a letter grade in multiple classes by a fraction of a point, my car broke down, and I broke my cell phone. Hell, my fantasy team sucked too. I got into a funk.
Not Dead Yet: Catchers Poised to Bounce Back in 2015
Now, I know that some of these things are partly (if not mostly) my fault, and if I had been more responsible, things might have turned out differently. That is what I am getting at. I realized that I couldn’t predict the unlucky breaks or bounces, but if I stuck to my guns and started acting like I always had instead of being an irresponsible prick, then everything would work out. And it did. The next semester was one of the best I had in college.
What I’m ranting about here is that it’s possible to bounce back after a rough stretch and get back to being you and doing what you do best. In this series, I’m going to go position-by-position and talk about players who had sub-par 2014s who I think will bounce back in 2015. I am absolutely not trying to say that these guys are irresponsible pricks like I was during my rough patch, just that I think their respective 2014s were aberrations, and they still have some good baseball left in them.
First up: Catchers.
Brian McCann, New York Yankees
2014 numbers (140 games): .232 AVG, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 57 R, 0 SB
2015 projection: .250 AVG, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 58 R, 0 SB
You might look at McCann’s 23 homers and 75 RBI at age 30 and think that he had a pretty good year, but with all of the money the Yanks gave him and for all of the NYC media hype that surrounded him coming in, he didn’t produce. He posted career lows in OBP (.286), OPS (.692), and BABIP (.231), his .232 batting average was 40 points lower than his career average of .272, and his walk rate (6%) and home run/fly ball rate (9.3%) were by far his lowest in 7 seasons. He also had the second highest fly ball rate and the lowest groundball rate of his career, making for the worst FB/GB ratio of his career (.71).
Despite all of those atrocious numbers, there are reasons to be optimistic. It is very hard to believe that a good hitter like McCann can have that big of a drop off in one year. Many claim that the high expectations for his power with the short porch in New York caused him to press and try and hit more home runs, rather than just try and hit, thus the high FB% and low BABIP, GB%, and FB/GB ratio. I expect the Yankees and McCann to work as best they can to fix this and get him back to somewhere close to his normal rates. His 8 home runs in September of ’14 are a good sign. He will be a top 10 catcher in fantasy again.
Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals
2014 numbers (88 games): .267 AVG, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 32 R, 0 SB
2015 projection: .272 AVG, 24 HR, 88 RBI, 68 R, 0 SB
At age 27, in the heart of a stacked Nationals lineup, the potential is there for Wilson Ramos. The question is his health. Ramos has dealt with hamstring problems (and a torn ACL in 2012) for a significant part of his career, not to mention the broken hand that cost him half of 2014. He also had to go through the emotional trauma and craziness of being kidnapped (!) in 2011.
That being said, it is his health, not poor performance that puts Ramos in the conversation as someone who could “bounce back”a candidate to in 2015. I believe that if he can stay healthy, Ramos can put up top five fantasy catcher numbers.
Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets
2014 numbers (101 games): .242 AVG, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 48 R, 1 SB
2015 projection: .267 AVG, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 55 R, 1 SB
This is more of a breakout candidate than a bounce-back, but at a position where offense is scarce, it is hard to find guys who either A.) Aren’t already good (Posey, Lucroy, Mesoraco, Molina) or B.) Look to continue being average after average 2014s.
A highly touted prospect, d’Arnaud was first called up for 31 games in 2013. He earned the starting gig in 2014, but a DL stint, poor performance at the plate, and a demotion to AAA marred the first half of his season. After he was recalled (and after the All-Star break) however, it was as if a light came on, and he improved his numbers across the board. A .217/.292/.354 line in the first half was the night to the day that was his .265/.313/.474 line the second half, his strikeout rate decreased, and all around he showed more discipline.
He is still a work in progress, but his defense behind the plate should keep him in the lineup for the majority of games. 20 homers is definitely a possibility if he can stay healthy (something he has had trouble with in the past) and build on his solid second half of 2014. I wouldn’t draft him as a top 10 catcher just yet, but if he’s available in later rounds, I would be very tempted to stash him away.
Also watch out for:
Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles (coming off of injury)
Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies (has regressed the past few years but still super talented and still plays half of his games at Coors Field)
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