Rivalry games have that quality about them where you can never know what to expect. Just because one team is having a good year and the other is struggling doesn’t necessarily mean the former is going to run all over the latter with impunity. Then again, the risk is there that a game between two hated foes can become completely out of hand if the underdog comes out flat and uninspired.
Such is the situation we find as we look at Saturday’s Ohio State-Michigan clash. Every college football rivalry features its own brand of mutual contempt between the two sides, but it can be argued this particular game takes it to a level beyond most. In Buckeye country it’s borderline taboo to even mention the name of the state the Wolverines inhabit, instead referring to the Maize and Blue as “that team up north.”
Ohio State-Michigan Preview
This weekend’s meeting marks the 111th edition of the series which got started way back in 1897. The rivalry on the gridiron, much like others around the country, reflects a history between the two states that has had its fair share of turbulence. You might not know that 62 years before that inaugural football game, an interstate feud between Ohio and Michigan over disputed territory nearly turned into a violent conflict. Known as the Toledo War, its effects and the compromise that settled the disagreement led to Michigan’s eventual statehood a year later.
But enough with history class, I’m sure you all are much more focused on football and what to expect when the Buckeyes and Wolverines take the field in Columbus on Saturday. If the current trend in the rivalry holds form, it won’t be a very pleasant day in Ohio Stadium for the visitors. Since 2000, Michigan has come out victorious over OSU on only three occasions. Whether it was Lloyd Carr, Rich Rodriguez or the currently embattled Brady Hoke, success against the Buckeyes has not come easily in recent years.
Things don’t seem to be letting up in Buckeye-ville under head coach Urban Meyer. With his third season at the helm winding down, the Ohio State program is enjoying an unprecedented run of success which is saying something considering how accustomed to conference dominance they’ve become over time. Meyer still has yet to lose a regular season Big Ten game and OSU’s current 23-game unbeaten run is a conference record. In fact, if they can add to that streak with a win on Saturday they will become the first Big Ten team ever to go undefeated and untied across three consecutive regular seasons.
On the other side of the field, things aren’t so peachy for Hoke. It has been widely speculated that Saturday’s game will be his last in charge of the Wolverines, regardless of whether or not UM can pull off what would be a pretty surprising upset. After getting off to a screaming start in Ann Arbor with an 11-2 record that included a Sugar Bowl victory in his debut season, the trajectory has clearly gone in the other direction. Hoke is 20-17 in his three seasons since including a 5-6 mark so far in 2014. Unless they can somehow beat the Buckeyes and spoil their College Football Playoff aspirations, Michigan will be eliminated from bowl consideration.
Much like Will Muschamp at Florida, what might have sealed Hoke’s fate is his inability to develop a starting quarterback. Devin Gardner has been a turnover machine in 2014, throwing nearly twice as many interceptions (14) as touchdowns (eight) this year. Overall, the Wolverines are tied for 108th in the nation in turnovers lost and 120th in intercepted passes. In other metrics that are good measures of solid quarterback play such as third down conversion percentage, yards per completion and passing offense, Michigan ranks 81st, 103rd and 113th respectively.
Still, going into this game you can’t help but notice that both teams are in almost hauntingly identical form from last year when they met at Michigan Stadium. That contest turned out to be a lot closer than expected, as the Wolverines were only a failed two-point conversion away from shocking the Buckeyes and ending their BCS title hopes a week before it inevitably happened in Indianapolis at the hands of Michigan’s green rival from East Lansing.
J.T. Barrett continues to take the Big Ten and the nation by storm with his phenomenal numbers coming right out of the gate. Though he made some mistakes against Indiana in a game where the Hoosiers only trailed by a possession in the fourth quarter, the redshirt freshman as well as the Buckeyes as a whole righted the ship when they needed to. In the final stanza of play last weekend, Barrett was 8-11 for 127 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Through 11 games, he has accounted for an Ohio State-record 42 total touchdowns, tied with Oregon’s Marcus Mariota for the national lead.
In order for Michigan to have any shot in this game, they’re going to have to contain the pressure that the OSU defensive front seven is going to bring all game long in an attempt to mine more turnovers out of Gardner. They also need to take advantage of perhaps the Buckeyes biggest glaring weakness on that side of the ball, defending the run. Over their last three games, Ohio State is giving up nearly 226 rushing yards per game, well above their seasonal average of just under 150. The Wolverines have a few capable runners in De’Veon Smith, Derrick Green, Drake Johnson and Gardner himself, but they’ll need to be on their A-game if they want to realize any success running the ball.
I’m not sure it’s possible to look past a rivalry game, particularly one as overflowing with animosity as Ohio State-Michigan. However, the Buckeyes have to realize they’re a mere two games away from possibly qualifying for the CFP if they can get some help. Indianapolis and beyond are beckoning yet a Michigan team hungry to play spoiler while circling the wagons around their maligned head coach await. In the end, I think a suffocating pass rush led by Bednarik Award finalist (nation’s most outstanding defensive player) Joey Bosa and an offensive onslaught brought about by the familiar cast of characters we’ve all grown used to seeing gets the job done for the Scarlet and Gray.
Senior day in Columbus always has a more captivating feel to it when the opposing team is none other than the big rival from that state to the northwest, and Saturday will undoubtedly be no different. An Ohio Stadium that is on the cusp of leading the nation in average attendance this year for the first time since 1973 should be bouncing and boisterous. And how fitting it will be to replace none other than Michigan at the top of that list.
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