In our Tennessee-Vanderbilt 2014 Preview we look at what happens when a rivalry isn’t a rivalry. For years, the annual match-up between intra-state programs Tennessee and Vanderbilt was so lop-sided that most fans considered the game a geographic rivalry only. And with good reason. The series is as one-sided as a series can get. Tennessee owns the all-time series lead at 73-30-5. Since 1982, Tennessee has lost only three times (2005, 2012, and 2013). In fact, entering the 2005 season, Tennessee held the two longest active consective win streaks against a team in the nation against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Tennessee has only lost to Vanderbilt nine times since 1937. And there are the differences in the programs. Tennessee has a rich tradition of football success and Vanderbilt, well, doesn’t. Additionally, Tennessee sees its natural rivals as Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Kentucky in addition to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt doesn’t have any other natural rivalries; they do have somewhat of a rivalry with Kentucky and Ole Miss created by similar histories in the SEC. These rivalries are based on tradition, program strength and geography as well. While Tennessee and Vanderbilt are in the same state, it’s about the same distance between Knoxville and Nashville, Lexington and Athens. This game doesn’t even have a name.
Vanderbilt, however, experienced a football resurgence 2008. The Commodores have four bowl appearances, three winning seasons, and three bowl wins. They are coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons, bowl wins, and – most importantly for many Vandy fans – victories over Tennessee. Under departed Chancellor Gordon Gee, now at an Ohio State University, and departed Head Coach James Franklin, now the top man at Penn State, Vanderbilt developed some football moxy and tried to turn this annual intra-state contest into a real rivalry. Franklin, particularly, was practiced at exciting fan bases. He excited Tennessee’s fan base much more than Vanderbilt’s. Franklin was making strides in recruiting in-state talent; and the ones he didn’t land at Vanderbilt he tried to dissuade from Tennessee.
Unfortunately for Vanderbilt it seems like Franklin took this success with him to Penn State. Coming off consecutive 9-4 and bowl win seasons, Vanderbilt enters Saturday’s contest at 3-8 with victories over Massachusetts (by 3), Charleston Southern (by 1), and Old Dominion. In addition to losing to Temple, Vanderbilt hasn’t been competitive against any SEC school this season. New Coach Derek Mason has a depleted roster for certain, but Vandy fans have to be wondering how you go from 18-8 with two bowl wins to an abysmal and uncompetitive season. The Commodores have shuffled four quarterbacks during the season and the offense has only scored more than 14 points four times this season. Freshman running back Ralph Webb has been a bright spot for the offense, although his success is a direct result of an anemic passing attack. The Commodores have 12 passing touchdowns and less than 2,000 yards of passing offense all season. The defense, normally Vandy’s strong point and Derek Mason’s area of speciality, has been gashed all season. Vanderbilt opponents have scored 28 or more points in all but three of their games this season. Vanderbilt is coming off two games where they have been outscored 85-10. They have significant injuries, no stability or system at quarterback, the defense is tired and undersized, and look to be going in the wrong direction.
Tennessee, on the other hand, is going in the opposite direction. Tennessee fans have suffered instability, losses, and adversity in the past five seasons. Two straight loses to Vanderbilt marked the lowest point in the modern Tennessee program. But Head Coach Butch Jones looks to have the Vols turned around this season. The Vols enter this game needing one win to become bowl eligible for the first time in four seasons. The Volunteer offense is improved in the second half of the season under the control of Sophomore Joshua Dobbs. Tennessee had a thrilling comeback and overtime victory against South Carolina and put up half-a-hundred against Kentucky. Tennessee is a very young team, playing over twenty true freshman, including seven starters, in last week’s loss against Missouri. Three of Tennessee’s impact freshmen, Derek Barnett (Brentwood/Brentwood Academy), Jalen Hurd (Hendersonville/Beech), and Josh Malone (Gallatin/Station Camp), played their high school ball virtually in the shadows of Vanderbilt’s campus. Tennessee enters the game with momentum and relatively healthy.
Mason has tried to continue to build the rivalry. He has mimicked other coaches trying to motivate fan bases by calling Tennessee “the team out East” all this week. He continues to engage the small Vanderbilt fan base and compliment their energy and attendance this season, even when attendance has been clearly underwhelming. It hasn’t resonated, however. Tennessee fans, contemplating an attempt to “Checker Vandy” as they did with Neyland Stadium earlier this season, called off the attempt so as not to call any undue attention to Vanderbilt.
Rivalry or not, this game is important to both teams. For Vanderbilt, maintaining relevance, increasing the rivalry (which helps their visibility), and something to help recruit in their geogrpahic area. Vanderbilt deparately wants this game to be a rivalry. For Tennessee, a bowl berth is on the line. The chance for a winning season, continued momentum, continued recruiting material and another month’s worth of practice for the youngest team in the nation. But it’s not a rivalry, it’s an important yearly game against an in-state rival.
In the end, this game will be like a sequel to Back to the Future. Tennessee will control this game. Tennessee’s defense has been surprisingly good this year. The Vol defensive line and secondary will be able to completely shut down and Vanderbilt passing attack. This will allow the linebackers to focus on the running. Tennessee’s run defense hasn’t been nearly as good as it’s pass defense, so Vanderbilt might be have two or three sustained drives resulting in ten total points. Tennessee’s offense will look at Mississippi State’s gameplan from last week and try to emulate it with Dobbs, Hurd and the wide outs. Tennessee’s offense finds ample success in Nashville to the tune of 40+ points.
Tennessee controls the game easily. This game ends the short interregnum of Vanderbilt relevance in the series and returns the series back to its historical normalness. Vanderbilt, residing in the SEC and having to compete on the field and the recruiting trail with the other 13 programs, will have a hard time climbing out of the hole from this season. Tennessee, having been through their proverbial journey through the forest of mediocrity, returns to dominance in this series and springboards to a bowl game (possibly back in Nashville) and into a 2015 campaign where they will be a popular SEC East pick. While it may not be a real rivalry, it is still a critical game on a Saturday in the fall in the South, which means we love it just the same.
Prediction: Tennessee 42, Vanderbilt 10
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