The SEC Week 13 Analysis centers around a slate of games that served as a break from the recent conference blood bathes. But it still provided several key storylines. Missouri continues to out-perform people’s expectations. On one hand, as the defending SEC East Division champions and current leader, you have to think they are tired of being counted out in that race. On the other hand, they lost to Indiana at home. The Tigers are the hardest team in the conference to figure out week-in and week-out. Their victory against Tennessee keeps them in front of the East. The other East teams took care of the non-conference match-ups to varying degrees of success. Georgia is waiting in the wings for a Missouri loss to claim the East title and make a run at the playoffs. Out west, Arkansas is starting to exert its influence on the Division with a resounding thumping of weakened Ole Miss. Mississippi State provided an old-fashioned beat down to Vanderbilt as a statement that they aren’t out of the playoff picture quite yet. And the rest of the Division also took care of their non-conference slate, again, to varying degrees of success. Let’s take a look back and, as always, separate the reaction from the reality of the conference’s Week 13 games.
Game of the Week:
Missouri 29, Tennessee 21
The Reaction: Missouri maintains its lead in the SEC East with quality win over Tennessee.
The Reality: Missouri, while far from championship caliber, still has key ingredient: key line play.
Tennessee came into this game as a hot pick for most analysts. Winners of two straight conference games, Vegas had the 5-5 Vols as anywhere between three- and six-point favorites against 8-2, SEC East leaders Missouri. While Missouri has been up and down all season, with a horrible loss to Indiana, a blowout loss to Georgia, and struggles with weak non-conference teams, they still have the key ingredient to be dangerous in this league: the ability to control the line of scrimmage. You’ve heard it here a thousand times; the SEC is a league won and lost at the line of scrimmage. Missouri did that against South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee. And, they did that against all of those teams on the road. Missouri’s defensive line was dominant against Tennessee’s hot spread option offense. The Tigers offense, meanwhile, put together several sustained drives, particularly in the second half, using an effective run game to set up passing success late in the game. It was classic Mizzou strategy executed very well. If Missouri can continue to execute at this level, they may very well end up in Atlanta for a second straight season. Only a home game against Arkansas, the league’s hottest team, stands in their way. Tennessee, on the other hand, came into the game riding momentum not seen in Knoxville in several years. And, for the second time this year, wasn’t able to convert that momentum into a key victory. Tennessee still has a game against Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible, so this loss wasn’t a crushing defeat for the program, but it is one that the faithful thought would go the other way. Still, the Volunteers have to feel good about the direction of the program once the offensive line is shored up and all the freshmen have another off-season under their belts. This weekend in Nashville is a must-win for Butch Jones and the Vols.
Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 0
The Reaction: Arkansas proves itself with second straight SEC shutout win.
The Reality: Arkansas really is a quality team.
Arkansas is the hottest team in the SEC right now. The Razorbacks shutout LSU last weekend and followed that up with an absolute beat-down of Ole Miss. The Razorbacks have close losses to Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas A&M this year and are one of the three youngest teams in the league right now (LSU and Tennessee the others). Bret Bielema has done a tremendous job getting things right – quickly – in Fayetteville after the fall-out Bobby Petrino/John L. Smith era. Arkansas has another chance to show their trajectory this weekend with a trip to Missouri to face another hot team playing for a Division title. Watch out for the Razorbacks in their bowl and as next season develops. Ole Miss, however, might be the very opposite. What was once a promising dream season with a top national ranking and a home win over Alabama has turned into a nightmare with gut-wrenching losses to long-time nemesis LSU and to Auburn, the loss of their best offensive player, and a reversion back to an inconsistently performing team. The defense still has talent, but two bad interceptions deep in Arkansas territory – including one pick-6 – puts the defense in undo situations and pressure. On top of that, Arkansas’ relentless rushing attach is designed to beat down opposing defenses, which is exactly what it did on Saturday. Ole Miss just looks tired, emotionally and physically, on the field. You have to wonder if the collapse of the dream season and the Treadwell injury has drained the life and spirit out of this team. This is where coaches earn their keep. Can Hugh Freeze and his staff get this team ready to play in the Egg Bowl. Or will a team that started 7-0 finish 8-4?
Mississippi State 51, Vanderbilt 0
The Reaction: The Bulldogs prepare for their final run with easy win against Vandy.
The Reality: Mississippi State is still a serious national title contender.
Say what you want about the quality of the opponent, but this was a dominating game for Mississippi State. It wasn’t nearly as close as the 51-point margin would indicate. The Bulldogs lead 37-0 at the half and only allowed a handful of plays on their side of the field. Vanderbilt only had one drive all game that covered more than 31 yards and the normally decent Vandy defense was gashed for 32 first downs, 502 total yards (219 passing/283 rushing) and caused no turnovers. Mississippi State might be the type of team that actually benefits from their loss to Alabama. As opposed to Ole Miss, the loss to Alabama might better prepare the Bulldogs for their upcoming big pressure games in the Egg Bowl, a possible SEC title game, and top-flight bowl game and/or playoff game. Mississippi State is certainly not crumbling late in the season like some teams around the league and looks to actually be getting stronger. For Vanderbilt, this is a far cry from the success of the previous three seasons. A tough test against Tennessee this Saturday is the only thing between them and a winless SEC campaign. This, coming off consecutive 9-win and bowl win seasons. Derek Mason has his work cut out for him this offseason; regaining program momentum in the SEC is not easy, especially at Vanderbilt.
Alabama 48, Western Carolina 14
The Reaction: Alabama struggles early and suffers key injuries.
The Reality: Alabama is getting ready for the next two weeks, still controls their destiny.
It only took the first two Western Carolina drives for social media to assert a laser focus on Alabama’s sluggish start. That’s a product of our hyper-focused, instantaneous feedback, super-competitive playoff digital age. The only thing scaring Crimson Tide fans, though, were the injuries occurring left and right early in this game. First Amari Cooper, then two linemen, then a tight end and another receiver. Oh, and three Tide starters were held out due to injuries any way. Luckily for Tide fans, the injury to Cooper isn’t serious and the team should be at about 100% going into this weekend’s Iron Bowl. Truthfully, this game didn’t mean much to the Tide. Alabama, along with Oregon and Florida State, are the teams that control their own destiny right now. Win, and on to the playoffs. Alabama wanted to take care of business with Western Carolina but is more focused on defeating Auburn this weekend and getting to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game. If Alabama wins out, expect them to be the top seed going into the playoffs. Alabama is looking to exorcise the memories of last year’s “Kick 6” defeat to Auburn. Can the Crimson Tide continue their dominance?
South Carolina 37, South Alabama 12
The Reaction: South Carolina with a typical SEC non-conference game before rivalry week.
The Reality: Possibly the most South Carolina-esque win ever.
South Carolina fans must be maddened by their team. So much talent, but where does it go? So much expectation, but for what? This was possible the worst 25-point win every. South Alabama had as many first downs as South Carolina. South Carolina fumbled four times with an interception for five turnovers. South Alabama had a 35:48-to-24:12 advantage in time of possession. This game was 17-9 at the half. Had it not been for South Alabama’s four interceptions, this game would have been very, very close. The good news for Gamecock fans is that South Carolina didn’t blow a fourth quarter lead, got the win, and became bowl eligible. But South Carolina cannot be feeling good heading into their game against in-state rival Clemson this weekend coming off this performance.
Auburn 31, Samford 7
The Reaction: Auburn gets back to winning ways against light competition.
The Reality: Auburn doesn’t look ready to challenge Alabama.
Much like the South Carolina game, Auburn struggled more than expected against Samford. This game was 17-7 at the half and a look inside the numbers shows that this wasn’t a blowout. Auburn had a 22-18 advantage in first downs. Auburn’s offense had 386 yards, which isn’t bad, but it’s well below what that offense should have against an opponent like Samford – especially when the Auburn defense allows over 110 yards rushing to an FCS opponent. Auburn, like Ole Miss, looks worn out and depleted, but physically and mentally. Auburn has been on the side of luck for about a year and a half, but that luck has dried up in the last five weeks of this season. Auburn has one chance at redemption for this season. The Tigers will look to spoil Alabama’s national title hopes for a second consecutive season in the Iron Bowl this weekend. Interestingly, Samford also played TCU this year, losing by a count of 48-14 in the season opener. I’m not sure that that really means anything, but with everyone looking for comparisons, that common opponent match-up is out there.
Georgia 55, Charleston Southern 9
The Reaction: Georgia looks like they are hitting their stride.
The Reality: Georgia is hitting their stride, is it too late?
In contrast to the South Carolina and Auburn struggles, Georgia did exactly what they needed to do against their non-conference, FCS opponent. Georgia absolutely crushed Charleston Southern from the very beginning. The discussion here centers around Georgia’s chances of making the SEC Championship game. Georgia still has a very, very small shot at getting into the playoffs. First, Missouri has to lose to Arkansas this weekend. Then, Georgia would need to win against Georgia Tech, win the SEC Championship and would need either Mississippi State or Alabama to lose this weekend. That would make Georgia a two-loss SEC Champion with no West teams at one-loss. Additionally, they would need Georgia Tech to beat Florida State, Oregon or Stanford to beat UCLA, and either Baylor/TCU or Ohio State to lose. Long and complicated, but Georgia fans can hope. Georgia looks to be hitting their stride, most notably as Hutson Mason continues to develop and mature. But that lose to Florida, though….
Florida 52, Eastern Kentucky 3
The Reaction: Florida shows what it’s capable of in blowout win.
The Reality: Florida has talent, can it put it all together for one last big win against FSU?
In an epic example of role-reversal, Eastern Kentucky actually rested some of their starters in order to prepare for the upcoming FCS playoffs. Florida, meanwhile, took care of business against Eastern Kentucky and eased some of the tension from a very chaotic and tumultuous past two weeks in Gainesville. Now, having sent the seniors and Head Coach Will Muschamp out of the Swamp with a victory and becoming the 11th league team to become bowl eligible, the Gators focus their attention on Florida State. Florida State has struggled virtually every game this season. Florida, having beaten Georgia by 18 earlier and seeing the team improving over the last few weeks, is entertaining thoughts of playing spoiler to intra-state rival and defending national champion Florida State this week. Can the Gators find redemption with a shocking upset of the Seminoles?
Overall SEC Analysis:
Every week is big in the league, but this week is really big. First, it’s rivalry week. In addition to the rivalry aspect, Alabama-Auburn and Mississippi State-Mississippi has national title implications. Tennessee plays Vanderbilt to become the 12th bowl eligible team. South Carolina (Clemson), Georgia (Georgia Tech), Florida (FSU), and Kentucky (Louisville) all have inter-conference rivalry games that will help shape the national debate about strength of conferences. These four games will certainly affect the playoff committee’s perception of conference quality. If Kentucky beats Louisville, it will be the 13th SEC bowl-eligible team. If Florida beats FSU, it likely knocks them out of the playoffs. A Kentucky win against a Louisville team that just defeated Notre Dame would certainly make a statement for the strength of the SEC. A South Carolina upset win against hated rival Clemson would also be disaster for the ACC. Missouri-Arkansas determines the SEC East winner. On top of the pageantry and history of rivalry week, every game except Texas A&M-LSU has some sort of national implication. After a low-key weekend, it’s back to the pressure and grind that is SEC football this weekend. Enjoy, as I know you will.
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