Quite frankly, this was a relatively boring week in college football, and not just because many SEC teams decided to play their late-season FCS cupcake. Sure, Florida State had another scare, but that happens so often that it’s getting pretty boring too. None of the major games across the country kept our interest for more than three quarters. It wasn’t even who played; there were just way too many blowouts everywhere.
Still, this week did an excellent job of framing the last two weeks of the season and allowing us to see exactly (more or less) how things could potentially shape out and who the remaining CFP contenders are.
First of all, conventional wisdom states that there are currently seven teams in the mix for those four College Foobtall Playoff spots. And while that’s certainly correct about the front-runners, it is not entirely so as regards the overall picture. There are several two loss teams that are still very much in the mix.
Let’s start with the seven front-runners. As has been true for several weeks now, three of them control their own destinies. Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon are all locked into the CFP if they win out. There is zero question about that. No matter how much the committee wants to discredit Florida State (and it’s pretty absurd how much they already are), they will not leave an undefeated Power Five team out of the playoff. Doing that would be begging for a split national championship, which quite frankly should be the CFP’s biggest nightmare. The whole point of this playoff is to decide an undisputed champion on the field. If we see split championships again, the playoff will basically have lost all meaning.
The interesting thing is that none of those three teams are entirely out of the picture with a loss. If Oregon loses the Civil War to Oregon State but beats a Top Ten Arizona, Arizona State, or UCLA team in the Pac-12 Championship Game, they will not be far out of the Top Four. The same goes for Alabama if they lose the Iron Bowl but win the SEC Championship Game (though they would need a Mississippi State loss just to get in). With the way the committee is treating Florida State, they are clearly the most precarious of those top three teams. However, if they lose to Florida but win the ACC Championship Game, they will have a very similar resumé to Ohio State, TCU, and Baylor and will certainly be in the mix if one or more of those three slip up.
This brings us to last week’s fourth ranked team, Mississippi State. The Bulldogs bounced back well from their loss with a 51-0 thrashing of Vanderbilt. Their resumé is quickly losing luster, though, as they would need an Auburn win in the Iron Bowl in order to have a single victory over a team with less than four losses by the end of the year. They are still this high because they didn’t get blown out by Alabama (though that logic didn’t stop Notre Dame from falling down to tenth a month ago), but that can only carry a resumé for so long. Without winning the SEC, they will probably get jumped by Ohio State and either TCU or Baylor by the time this is all over. One thing is for sure, there are going to be lots of “War Eagle” cries from Starkville this week.
Now, though, comes the real fight. Ohio State, TCU, and Baylor are all pretty much neck-and-neck coming down the stretch. Ohio State has that ugly loss to Virginia Tech, which got even uglier this week when the Hokies blew a gimme game against absolutely awful Wake Forest…a week after upsetting Duke, go figure. Meanwhile, Baylor’s loss is also looking worse as West Virginia picked up their fifth defeat of the season this week. TCU has the best loss of the bunch by far, a three point heartbreaker to Baylor. On the other hand, TCU also has the least impressive victories of this group. Both Baylor (TCU) and Ohio State (Michigan State) have beaten Top Ten teams. TCU’s best win is Kansas State, who will pick up a third loss if Baylor wins out. The Horned Frogs will probably be rooting for the Wildcats in that game and have to hope that an Ohio State victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game won’t be enough to vault the Buckeyes over them.
Those are the seven teams on everyone’s contenders list. There are a few more, though, that cannot be counted out yet. Let’s start with the SEC. Georgia has two losses but also could have two remaining games against ranked teams. They need to beat Georgia Tech this week and hope that Arkansas continues their hot streak against Missouri. If the Bulldogs can upset top-ranked Alabama in the SEC Championship game, they may very well take the Tide’s place in the playoff. And it certainly wouldn’t hurt if the Yellow Jackets knock off Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. They may hate the Ramblin’ Wreck, but UGA could very well be their biggest fans on championship Saturday.
Out west, the Pac-12 South has three 2-loss teams that can’t be counted out just yet. UCLA is playing some of the best football in the country right now and a victory over second-ranked Oregon would be hard to look past. They may need some help (either from Georgia Tech or Wisconsin), but they are right in the thick of things. The same holds true for both Arizona and Arizona State, though they need UCLA to lose to Stanford this weekend just to get that shot at Oregon. Both of those games are at the same time on Friday, so there is going to be a lot of scoreboard watching from the desert with everyone in the stadium rooting for the Cardinal.
That pretty much exhausts the list of contenders, though. Kansas State may still be alive in the Big 12 race if Texas beats TCU on Thanksgiving night, but even with a victory over Baylor the Wildcats would only have one win over a ranked opponent. Maybe if there’s enough chaos everywhere they could get in, but it’s not looking likely. The same is true for Wisconsin, who has two pretty bad losses that not even a victory over Ohio State and a Big Ten championship can erase.
Michigan State keeps sliding up the rankings as they continue to dominate most teams, but being 0-2 against ranked teams at the end of the season will keep them out of the playoff. Missouri is also not alive, even if they win the SEC. If Missouri wins against Arkansas and then wins the SEC Championship Game, they will have exactly one win over a team ranked at the end of the year (that SEC West opponent from the championship game). That will not be enough to erase the awful early season loss to Indiana. Anyone who wants to see the SEC shut out of the Playoff should be rooting big for Mizzou going forward.
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