Many of you already know I receive hundreds of questions a week regarding fantasy sports, especially football. It is one of my favorite parts of the gig actually. Interacting and possibly helping someone do something that will make their life a little better makes me smile. It is a great game that I believe to be an extreme amount of fun.
I was asked a question this week that I don’t remember ever getting. I typically get the do you like this guy over this guy. Or to rank these three players for the remainder of the schedule, best to worst. Or how the hell did you get this job you bum (that is my personal favorite). This was not that type of question.
Fabber’s Believe It or Not, Maximize Line-Ups and Week 12.
This gentleman (as far as I could tell he is) obviously read my piece in the off season about how even in season long fantasy leagues play it week by week. He asked me two great questions. The first one was how do you optimize your team on a weekly bases. The second one was when do you look to cut depth to maximize the starting line-up (another great question from a piece I wrote last year).
If you can really grasp the concept and have faith in it, the weekly roster is the best way to go about it, but it’s not easy. To do this you take your opponents line-up for the week you play them and break it down position by position. The goal is to feel comfortable about winning 67% of the individual match-ups. If your team can accomplish that you have an 80% chance of victory. Those are the kind of odds that gamblers love (not saying I am one).
How do you make your line-up that way? Good question readers. You use waiver wire, your roster, and trades to make that happen. What you will find is the more you do this the less you will need to at the end because some of the players you gather will last multiple weeks. It literally gets easier as you go, I like that as well.
The next question was maximizing your line-up, which I believe is instrumental for late season and playoff runs. This is where you take the depth you acquired or held throughout the year and sell packages to get the best player or players with the best schedule remaining for the year.
Why do you do this? Another great question reader, you impressed me. You do this because you will not need depth late. You will need the best line-up you can get. One that any player in your league will look at and go “damn how did we let him get this team?” Tree Lighting Christmas Centerpiece. So go out and get the best QB, RB, WR, and TE you can get with what you have and watch how many trophies end up with your name on it.
Well let’s get to week 12 and the return of Josh Gordon, I am playing him but don’t follow a guy they call Mental Mike!
Believe
QBs
Jay Cutler CHI, 26 Points: We all know that the Bears system is pass happy. We all know they have some of the best receiving weapons in the NFL. Playing Tampa Bay who gives up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks makes it even more intriguing to give Jay another shot in the starting line-up.
Josh McCown TB, 23 Points: Well he has come back on fire folks. So good, I can’t even make fun of him anymore. He scored over 20 points both games since his return and now he is playing the Bears. If you were wondering the Bears give up over 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is second most in the NFL.
Tony Romo DAL, 22 Points: The Giants round out the worst 10 defense when it comes to quarterbacks scoring in fantasy. Dallas had two weeks to prepare and Romo got an extra week himself to rest the back.
RBs
Denard Robinson JAC, 14 Points: Jacksonville is committed to running the ball to protect Blake Bortles and Robinson has taken control of the job. Oh yea they are playing Indy who gives up over 23 points per game to opposing running backs. Seems like a good match-up!
Frank Gore SF, 12 Points: Washington’s run defense is actually forth best in the NFL. They haven’t played this run game yet though. Gore and 49ERS are too good at creating space and that’s all a well rested Gore needs.
Justin Forsett BAL, 12 Points: They are playing the Saints who do give up 20 plus points to opposing running backs weekly. The Ravens come in after a bye week with a healthy offense dedicated to moving the ball on the ground.
WRs
Mike Evans TB, 16 Points: If you haven’t noticed Evans has been putting up WR1 type numbers for weeks. This will be his last time in the column if he does it again because it will be a no brainer to play him.
Roddy White ATL, 13 Points: Playing the Browns means your number one receiver will be shut down by Haden. Lucky for White he is the number two. He should be targeted often and like his chances of playing well at home.
Jordan Matthews PHI, 12 Points: It is clear he is Sanchez favorite weapon. He plays in a pass first offense and is capable of breaking any play into a touchdown.
TEs
Coby Fleener IND, 15 Points: Jaguars give up almost 10 points per game to tight ends. With D. Allen nursing an injury we saw that Fleener can be the guy. Expect big!
Jason Witten DAL, 12 Points: Too many weapons to stop them all and at this point he isn’t an early option for defenses either. A sneaky play!
Kickers
Phil Dawson SF 12 Points
Justin Tucker BAL 10 Points
Defense
Chiefs 18 Points
Packers 16 Points
Nots
QBs
Tom Brady NE, 18 Points: Who is the best fantasy defense verses opposing quarterbacks? You got it, Detroit Lions. That is exactly who Brady has to see this week. Not saying he can’t do it, just not willing to play him to find out.
Matthew Stafford DET, 16 Points: He is playing the same team and coaching staff that made Peyton Manning look like he didn’t know how to play quarterback. This makes me very nervous to trust this guy on the same field.
RBs
Steven Jackson ATL, 8 Points: The Browns run defense is middle of the pack so he could be alright. The problem is more the system Atlanta runs makes it hard for a running back to really get going. Jackson doesn’t have the big play threat we all enjoyed when he was a Ram and he will not get the carry count to have that impact fantasy owners were hoping for.
Andre Ellington ARI, 7 Points: Do not get me wrong I love this guy and have all year. But he is getting more banged up every day. Also he is the focal point of opposing defenses now as well. I am just hoping this isn’t the beginning of the end of his season a little too early.
WRs
Jeremy Maclin PHI, 8 Points: Sanchez has his favorites and Maclin is not one of them. Titans have a good pass rush and Sanchez is still recovering for the hit he took in the Packers game. Maclin needs to run shorter routes to be involved in this game.
Julio Jones ATL, 7 Points: Not every day that two top 25 receivers end up in my not section but it did this week. Jones is already banged up and now he has a guy named Haden covering him all game long. This is a recipe for a bust type game.
TEs
Vernon Davis SF, 6 Points: Something is seriously wrong with the 49ERS when a freak player like Davis can’t get going but that’s the case. I do not see it getting better this week and not sure when it will.
Kyle Rudolph MIN, 4 Points: He will still be on a snap count with limited opportunity in a run first and often offense. I am just not ready to have him in a line up.
Kickers
Steven Hauschka SEA 6 Points
Matt Prater DET 5 Points
DEF
Ravens 8 Points
Dolphins 6 Points
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