When the Tigers re-signed Victor Martinez, they addressed one of their most pressing issues heading into the 2015 season. Losing Martinez would represent the departure of one of the most impactful bats on the team, and would leave a gaping hole in a lineup that may also be without Miguel Cabrera to start the season. Outside of those two, besides Ian Kinsler and the suddenly scary J.D. Martinez the Detroit offense doesn’t figure to be all that imposing. Nick Castellanos flopped in his first full year of big-league exposure, Rajai Davis doesn’t project very well for next season, Alex Avila is dealing with his umpteenth concussion, and Anthony Gose (as of now) has a starting spot. That’s to say nothing of the who’s-who of players that make the average fan say “who?” when reviewing the members of the bench. Outside of perhaps Steven Moya, there isn’t much help on the way from the minor leagues.
In short, offense may be an issue going forward. The big bats are as big as they get, but that’s about it. Pressure will be on the Detroit pitching staff to pick up the slack and recoup some of that value. The probability of losing Max Scherzer to another team is quite high, so as you can tell, GM Dave Dombrwoski has his hands quite full. The addition of David Price at the trade deadline will definitely make that easier. After that, things get a little hairy. Rick Porcello had himself a fine breakout campaign this year, but Steamer isn’t too fond of the idea of him repeating that level of production. Anibal Sanchez has been brilliant during his tenure in Detroit, but didn’t look very comfortable on the mound once returning from a strained pectoral muscle, and it’s anyone’s guess if it’ll be a lingering issue. Kyle Lobstein (!) is currently slated to be the fifth starter, but that will in all likelihood be addressed through free agency. Still, depth will most likely be an issue.
There’s also the artist formerly known as The Best Pitcher in the World, Mr. Justin Verlander himself. Oh, how things have changed so quickly for the one-time MVP. In 2012, Verlander owned a sparkling 2.64 ERA. This past season, that number was 4.54. He still managed to be a 3.3 fWAR player, good enough to be the 7th most valuable Tiger in 2014. If calculate WAR using runs allowed per 9 innings instead of FIP, though, his value plummets to 0.8. Pitcher WAR is a field that’s still very far away from being perfect, but the point stands. Verlander is trending in the wrong direction, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for Detroit. Do the numbers think he can pull a rabbit out of his hat, and be a reliable presence in the rotation? Let’s find out.
Verlander’s FIP in 2014 was 3.74, while his RA9 was an unsightly 4.98. FIP states what a pitcher’s “expected” ERA would be, when defense, batted ball randomness, and sheer luck are factored in and accounted for. Opposing hitters hit .317 when they put the ball in play this year. Note that the Tigers ranked as the 28th worst defensive team in baseball by UZR/150 (a rate of Ultimate Zone Rating-calculated runs saved, per 150 games). Perhaps Verlander’s inflated run total was a result of some bad BABIP luck?
Well, yes and no. FIP is not park adjusted, meaning it doesn’t take into consideration that some pitchers do the body of their work at Coors Field, and others do so at AT&T Park. Stadiums play a major role in influencing offensive levels. Batters can hit a ball in San Diego that ends up on the warning track, but that same ball may be a bomb into the seats in Baltimore. Detroit’s home field, Comerica Park, has long been regarded as a pitcher’s park. For a pitching stat that is park adjusted, we need to use SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA). SIERA takes pretty much everything into consideration and attempts to pinpoint a pitcher’s skill level. So, when taking into account, well, everything (that’s Fangraphs’ rundown of SIERA for those of you who aren’t familiar), SIERA spits out a figure of… 4.17. So, that’s not pretty, but it’s significantly better than Verlander’s actual 4.54 ERA. However, all of this begs and a very important question.
What the heck happened to Justin Verlander? Perhaps more importantly, is this a permanent shift? There have been a bevy of theories put forward to answer those questions. In the heat of the summer, there was a wave of articles and talking head speculation that postulated Verlander was hiding an injury. His fastball has lost a few ticks, and maybe it’s just that hitters were seeing the pitches better. It was also proposed that Kate Upton had taken Verlander’s mojo, because why not?
As tempting as it is to ascribe to the Upton school of thought, we’re here for serious business. So, why doesn’t SIERA like Justin Verlander? If we saunter on over to Fangraphs’ Pitch Values section of Verlander’s stats, it tells us part of the story. By their count, Verlander’s only plus pitch in 2014 was his slider. The Pitch F/x data, just below that first table, corroborates that assessment. His scores weren’t nearly as bad in 2013, and the difference between the two years is staggering.
Using those same data sets, it’s easy to see that in his prime, Verlander made his living with his fastball and his curveball. Both pitches were below league average in 2014. According to BrooksBaseball, 2014 was the first season Verlander failed to hit 100 MPH on his fastball since 2008. The chart below, also from Brooks, shows slugging percentages against Verlander’s curveball and changeup.
Slugging percentage against the curve was staying consistently high for the first time. That same graph also shows that slugging against his changeup was over .600 in three separate months this season, which has never happened before. In fact, slugging percentage against both pitches has largely been trending upwards since 2012. These are the problem pitches for Verlander. His fastball results have actually stayed largely the same, despite a loss in velocity. This data shows why Verlander’s SIERA is so ugly. The rough spots of 2013 are the new normal, and it wasn’t a catastrophe that came out of the blue. The steady upward trend of slugging on his secondary pitches shows that 2014 was no mere aberration. For better or for worse, barring some exceptional tinkering, this may be who Justin Verlander is now.
There’s more to support that, too. The Steamer projection system pegs Verlander for a much tamer 4.06 ERA, backed by a 4.18 FIP. In essence, his peripherals and ERA are projected to basically catch up with each other. This is accomplished partly through a lower BABIP (.285, as opposed to .317), a higher percentage of runners left on base, and improvements in both strikeout and walk rate. Yet his FIP is still projected to be substantially higher than 2014’s. How?
In 2014, Verlander had a 0.79 HR/9. Steamer projects a rate of 1.15 HR/9 for 2015. As I stated earlier, batters are punishing Verlander’s secondary pitches more and more each year, and that’s likely to continue. Even if Verlander resolves to simply throw those pitches less often, it’s going to become easier and easier to sit fastball, and that fastball is getting slower. Verlander may have some better luck in 2015, judging by the Steamer projections, but he’ll be a worse pitcher with better luck. That’s reflected in his fWAR projection of 2.1.
Unless they shell out all kinds of money on an ace to replace Scherzer, the Tigers will desperately need Verlander to beat those projections. The AL Central is going to be a dogfight next year, and this is an awful time to lose an ace while also staring at a decline in offense. If Verlander could even look more like the 2013 version of himself, Dave Dombrowski would be over the moon. However, that doesn’t seem very likely to happen. The quality of Verlander’s pure stuff will continue to decline, and with it his reliability. Naturally, he’ll be making $28 million each year from 2015 to 2019. The Tigers don’t just have a problem on their hands for next year, they have a problem on their hands for many years to come. But for 2015, Justin Verlander isn’t someone you want to depend on for quality innings while chasing a World Series title. Barring a massive acquisition, the Detroit starting staff could become something of an issue for the first time in years.
Brad Ausmus doesn’t exactly have the kind of bullpen he will need to put out the fires started by the back end of the rotation, either. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers find themselves outside of first place when all is said and done next season.
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