Time really does fly by when you’re having fun. It doesn’t seem like the college football preseason was that long ago when college football fans and pundits nationwide were discussing their Heisman Trophy favorites. Fast forward to today and some of those names have maintained their frontrunner status, while others have fallen by the wayside as regards legitimately making a case for consideration.
Then you have the players whose names weren’t even on our respective radar before the season started yet have emerged as serious contenders with breakout performances and overall stellar play. More often than not, both types of players have distinguished themselves as being fundamentally crucial to their team’s success and national championship aspirations. What makes the Heisman Trophy race so exciting to observe from afar is the unpredictability of whether or not a given player is going to help his cause with a stroke of brilliance or fall out of contention with a less than impressive effort.
I’ve been doing a bi-weekly analysis of the Heisman race for about a month now, and in previous columns I’ve rated the players I perceive to be the ten best candidates for the Heisman. With the trophy presentation ceremony in New York City now less than a month away, it may be time to whittle down the field as fewer players possess the requisite body of work necessary to be in contention. That’s why I’ve decided to cut the ranking this week down to that lucky number of seven.
As we move ever closer to the eventual naming of the finalists, let’s take a look at which Heisman Trophy aspirants made this even more exclusive cut. By the way, if you want to see how my assessment of the race has evolved, check out my previous articles on the topic:
The Heisman Trophy Frontrunners (after Week 12)
1. Melvin Gordon – running back, Wisconsin Badgers
I told you in previous articles that I would rank my Heisman frontrunners just like the CFP selection committee does with its top 25 in that I start from scratch each time I compile it. With Marcus Mariota’s Oregon Ducks on a bye and Gordon having put forth a performance for the ages in the snow and cold of Madison, WI, I had no choice but to place him at the top this week. Say what you want about the Big Ten, but when you run for more yards in a single game than any other back in FBS history against a top 15 team in Nebraska that had only lost once until they came to Camp Randall, I think you’ve got my attention.
After breaking LaDainian Tomlinson’s 15-year-old FBS record with his 408 yards on the ground in the Badgers 59-24 beatdown of Nebraska, Gordon leads the nation in rushing yards and it isn’t even close. He currently has a 231 yard lead over 2nd placed conference compatriot Tevin Coleman of Indiana, and essentially is in possession of college football’s triple crown of rushing stats. In addition to being tops in total yardage, he’s also number one nationally in rushing touchdowns (23) as well as yards per carry (8.56). Whether or not he wins remains to be seen, but make no mistake about it, you will see Gordon in a suit sitting at the front of the crowd in New York City on December 13th.
2. Marcus Mariota – quarterback, Oregon Ducks
It seems as if teams with byes have been in the unfortunate position of getting leapfrogged in the CFP selection committee rankings. It happened to Nebraska last week when they dropped three spots from the week before (though the committee might have been onto something) and sure enough Mariota’s own team suffered the same fate even though it’s hard to argue Alabama deserved the top spot after knocking off number one over the weekend. Sadly for Mariota himself, what that Wisconsin running back I just got done talking about did over the weekend left me no other choice but to drop him from the top spot he occupied in my previous ranking.
From a statistical and advanced analytics standpoint, Mariota continues to lead the nation in the two prominent categories of passing efficiency and Total QBR. His touchdown to interception ratio of 29/2 is about as good as it gets, and don’t expect things to change this weekend when the Pac-12’s worst team, Colorado, comes to Autzen Stadium. Considering Mariota can beat you with his arm and his legs and the fact Colorado ranks 104th nationally in total defense, this one could get ugly fast. After that, he has two opportunities (Oregon State, Pac-12 Championship Game) to make a case he deserves to win this trophy after being in the mix the past two years.
3. Jameis Winston – quarterback, Florida State Seminoles
The Florida State program in general and Winston in particular give off the aura of Goliath and the tortoise all wrapped up into one. Clearly the class of the ACC, the rest of the conference has hoped to take on the role of David when playing the Seminoles, but all too often they’ve finished the game much like the hare.
Last Saturday’s win over Miami was essentially the third example in as many games where the Winston off-field circus looked like it was going to catch up with him in the first half, only for him to remind people why he won the Heisman Trophy last year in the second. What separates him from other elite, NFL-aspiring quarterbacks is his almost uncanny ability to time an opposing blitz, give himself an extra step away from players trying to bring him down, and get the ball out with astounding accuracy down the field. Though he got a lot of help from the Nole defense in wresting the lead from the Hurricanes and preserving the win, Winston made crucial second half passes that kept drives alive, kept the defense honest, and set up the run.
4. J.T. Barrett – quarterback, Ohio State Buckeyes
I had essentially written off the prospects of Barrett making it a freshman trifecta from a Heisman Trophy standpoint after the Penn State game. Though he essentially willed the Buckeyes to victory on a sprained MCL in overtime, he made two crucial blunders reading zone coverage from the defensive front seven which led to interceptions and nearly enabled the Nittany Lions to pull off the upset. He played one half in the glorified scrimmage against Illinois to rest the injury, a veritable calm before the storm when it came to what we were about to witness from perhaps the most unlikely contender on this list.
Against Michigan State, Barrett accounted for 386 all-purpose yards (300 passing, 86 rushing) and five total touchdowns (three passing, two rushing) in the Buckeyes 49-37 victory. If you were hoping for an encore, he sure didn’t disappoint one week later in frigid Minneapolis, accounting for another 389 yards and four more touchdowns. On a Big Ten weekend characterized by out-of-this-world rushing performances, Barrett joined in on the fun with 189 yards on the ground and an 86-yard touchdown run, both Ohio State records for a quarterback. The Buckeyes had an absurd 76% 3rd down conversion percentage when Barrett either ran or threw the ball in those situations against both the Spartans and Gophers.
5. Amari Cooper – wide receiver, Alabama Crimson Tide
Winning the Heisman Trophy as a wide receiver has for some reason been exceedingly rare. Of the 78 times the award has been handed out, a pass catcher in some capacity or another has only gone home with it three times (Johnny Rodgers, Tim Brown, Desmond Howard). Of course in the early days of the award, so few teams possessed prolific passing attacks like they do now so it’s no surprise that running backs won the trophy all but six times before 1960.
Cooper is the best bet at the position to garner an invitation to New York for the festivities. He’s scored at least one touchdown in all but three of the Crimson Tide’s ten games so far, including three against Florida and two apiece in wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee. He’s the only wideout in the nation to appear in the top five of virtually every major receiving category (receiving TDs, yards per game, total yards, yards per reception). He has next-level separation ability which means as an opposing defensive back you better wrap him up as soon as the ball gets into his hands or he’ll leave you in the dust very easily.
6. Dak Prescott – quarterback, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Prescott’s candidacy took a bit of a hit on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. His three interceptions on the day were a crucial factor in the 25-20 defeat that ended the Bulldogs’ unbeaten run. It should be said that he showed immense heart in the second half keeping MSU marginally in the game and seems to be one of those quarterbacks with a short memory, able to mentally block out mistakes and trudge on.
Much like most if not all the quarterbacks featured here, Prescott has the ability to run when he has to but it doesn’t necessarily define his game. That said, he currently has 861 yards on the year with 11 rushing touchdowns, the same number as his running back teammate Josh Robinson. In fact, Auburn’s Nick Marshall is the only Power Five quarterback with as many scores on the ground. Prescott will need to redeem himself a bit in the final two regular season games. If he can take over the Egg Bowl and power the Bulldogs to a big win on the road against their hated in-state rival, there may still be room for him in New York.
7. Brett Hundley – quarterback, UCLA Bruins
Even when I was compiling my previous Heisman rankings, I didn’t think I would be placing Hundley on the list a mere two weeks later but here he is. Mentioned in the preseason as a possible contender for the award, the Bruins were less than impressive in non-conference play and underwent a two-game losing streak at home in early October that appeared to take UCLA out of conference title and CFP contention. They’re undefeated since and currently stand ninth in the selection committee rankings and could conceivably make it in the event of complete and utter chaos.
Hundley has been exceptionally accurate and relatively mistake-free throughout the season but particularly during this current four-game winning streak. His 72% clip from a completion percentage perspective currently leads the nation and he’s ranked in the top ten in both passing efficiency and Total QBR. Since the Bruins got back to their winning ways, Hundley has demonstrated his effectiveness as a runner, averaging 88.25 rushing yards per game with four touchdowns on the ground. If the Bruins win out which would entail revenge over Oregon in the Pac-12 championship, Hundley could be a dark horse.
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