At first, the new qualifying structure for the European Championships divided opinion, depending upon the anthem you sang and the colours you wore. The general consensus among the bigger, more established nations was that a new extended tournament would lead to a more laborious campaign, and the quality of football may become somewhat diluted. Fans of developing or smaller nations (such as myself) felt that it was their time to shine, put themselves on the big stage and maintain a realistic chance of reaching a tournament proper. Fair play to Michel Platini and the other suits at UEFA, because after four rounds of qualifying fixtures, we’ve got ourselves a humdinger. An international break is often met with derision and contempt by domestic fans, managers, coaches, owners, and even some players. It’s almost as though the corporate background noise that envelopes football mutters in unison with unequivocal disdain: ‘How dare they interrupt the ebb and flow of the Premier League (the greatest league in the world) to represent the nations of their birth and ancestry.’
It shows how much the commercialisation of the football world has taken hold, as international football was once regarded the highest echelon and triumphant jewel of the sport, and now it can be seen by many as an inconvenience. Whilst, I admit, some friendly fixtures are arranged at very strange times in the football calendar, this should never be the case with tournament qualifiers. When there are three points on offer, the cut-throat ambition and sheer competitive instincts should come out in a professional footballer, determined to be named in every national squad, whether you are playing Germany or Gibraltar, Spain or San Marino.
This is precisely where the new qualifying structure comes into its own. With the top two in each group qualifying, and third places heading into a play-off, the middling teams have now got that motivational factor of a genuine chance of qualification. Even the minnow nations seemed to have stepped up the game, with San Marino taking a point from Estonia, Lichtenstein nicking a win against Moldova, Malta taking a draw away from Bulgaria, and. most impressive of all, the Faroe Islands out-defended Greece in Athens and nicked an historic 0-1 win over the 2004 European Champions. The goalposts have well and truly changed, and some of the big boys have been caught out thus far.
World champions Germany, European champions Spain and World Cup bronze medallists The Netherlands have all suffered defeats in their respective pools, and are very much embroiled in the mad scramble to Paris. Whilst it is fair to say that the chance any of those sides not featuring in Euro 2016 is exceedingly slim at best, it just adds to the melting pot of excitement, hope, fun and genuine befuddlement of the campaign.
Where does all this lunacy and unexpected results leave the teams from these fair isles? Well, even the English have a 100% record in Group E. Told you it was a crazy campaign. Credit to Roy’s Boys, they have probably overcome their stiffest test on paper, having successfully navigated the notorious stumbling ground of Switzerland away in Basel. Many world class sides, both international and domestic, have come a cropper at St Jakob’s Park in the last decade or so, so to play their first qualifier there and come away with the win must fill England with the confidence that had so visibly evaporated in the Amazon heat in the summer. Supplemental wins over San Marino, Estonia and Slovenia, with only one goal conceded should mean that the Three Lions should hop over the Channel. The fight for second and third should be interesting in that group, with only two points separating Switzerland, Slovenia, Lithuania and Estonia. I think England should wrap this group up sooner rather than later, but England would’ve expected to qualify regardless.
A nation which hasn’t tasted qualification since Sweden 1958 is Wales. Being a fiercely patriotic Welshman (is there any other kind?); I genuinely feel a renewed sense of optimism amongst supporters. I have watched Wales play under the dour, defensive days of Toshack where there were barely 9,000 fans in the empty shell of the 74,000 capacity Millennium Stadium. No atmosphere, no impetus, no point. But what is apparent now is that Toshack was laying the foundations for a young, progressive team, which deserves credit. This was built upon by the late, great Gary Speed and current manager Chris Coleman, with an honourable mention for Brian Flynn’s input in the age-grade sides. Wales stuttered in Andorra, and relied on their galactico to Bale them out. Since then, a gutsy draw at home to a good Bosnian side, and three points in Cardiff at home to Cyprus, which considering that midfielder Andy King was harshly sent off with around 35mins left on the clock, shows the rediscovered belief and resistance that Wales have lacked when it mattered.
The result in Brussels is the one that really made people start talking. It may have been goalless, but the steely grit was evident again. Bearing in mind the dearth of talent available to the Belgian Golden Generation, and the fact they are ranked fourth in the world, that belief and support that The Dragons had been lacking is back with a bang. It’s not just an undefeated Wales putting a proverbial spanner in the Group B works; Israel have won their first three games against Andorra, Cyprus and Bosnia-Herzegovina, and nobody anticipated that either. Wales lie second, two points clear of Cyprus and three off Belgium (with a game in hand v Israel).
Bosnia and Herzegovina are having a torrid time; just two points from four games means they lie in fifth position, with only Andorra below them. This can work in Wales’ favour, and the two games against Israel now have massive importance in the context of this tightly knit group. If results continue to fall in their favour, they may carry the hopes of a nation, and several unfulfilled generations, on their shoulder to France.
The Northern Irish have also dumbfounded the experts by taking nine points from their first three games, before being halted by the Romanians away from home in matchday four. Northern Ireland went away and won in Hungary and Greece, sandwiching a home victory over the Faroe Islands between their travels. A team filled with good professionals, but no major stars like years gone by but manager Michael O’Neill has transformed them into a resolute, structured side that can break incisively and finish clinically. Considering that three of their first four games have been played away from home, and Windsor Park is usually (touch wood) an impenetrable fortress in Belfast, I really fancy Northern Ireland’s chances.
Only trips to Helsinki and Torshavn remain on the itinerary, with Finland, Romania, Hungary and Greece needing to visit Belfast. The Northern Irish have been helped by the group favourites’ spectacular demise, with Greece’s debacle of a campaign putting them at the bottom of the Group F pile with a single point.
Romania tops it, a solitary point ahead of NI, with Hungary on seven, four for Finland, and three for those swashbuckling Faroes. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that the Greeks could come back into the reckoning as there are still eighteen points left on offer in the remaining clashes, but I fancy Northern Ireland in most of their remaining fixtures, particularly at home. Their blistering start has moved them ahead of the stutterers, and hopefully, it will propel them to Paris.
Group D is a really interesting one with all sorts of connotations and permutations. Scotland and the Republic of Ireland lie in third and fourth respectively, both accumulating an admirable seven points from twelve, the same amount secured by World Champions Germany. Poland top the group with ten; their win over the Germans blowing the group wide open. Georgia have three points, and qualifying newbies Gibraltar complete the parade.
Scotland’s win over the Republic in Glasgow this week, thanks to a sublime Shaun Maloney strike, epitomised the passion, tenacity and energy of a local derby. Scotland realistically needed to grind out the victory in order to stay in contention with the group pacesetters. This is where it is difficult to see both Scotland and Ireland making the top three. It would’ve been better for both nations had Germany waltzed through the group with maximum points, but with Poland beating them, it has made their task much harder. Ireland themselves rescued a point, but Scotland came away from Munich empty-handed, possibly undeservedly so. Also having to factor in potential banana skin fixtures against Georgia, particularly away in Tbilisi, it is an unenvious task for them. It is unfortunate that they’ve both been placed in the same pool, as I’m sure either side could’ve easily qualified from other groups, probably automatically without requiring a playoff.
It is worth remembering though that both Poland and Germany have to visit Dublin and Glasgow next year, with Georgia also visiting the Irish, so this explosive group has a few more twists in the tale yet, and hopefully, it will favour the Celtic Nations. There is a possibility that all five of these nations can qualify for France 2016. It will be a monumental task, and it will require luck, favourable results, guile, determination and our renowned fervent passion and hysteria, but this new format has united all of these fans with a rekindled belief that they will be able to join the party, and for the good of football development in our nations. I hope that the incredible feat can be achieved, and we can all climb aboard the Eurostar in unison.
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