In 2011, the Chicago Cubs stumbled to a 71-91 record while sporting the 6th highest payroll in baseball at just north of $125 million. Jim Hendry was let go and when Epstein was hired in October of 2011, the fan base went nuts because the franchise would finally move in a more progressive direction. No longer would they be beholden to stats like pitcher wins, ERA, RBI, batting average, and the most ridiculous of all stats, the “save.” Theo and owner, Tom Ricketts urged patience, saying the rebuild could not and would not happen overnight, and the majority of Cubs fans have obliged.
Over the next three seasons the Theo lead Cubs posted a franchise worst .411 winning percentage. In 2012 and 2013 the Cubs barely resembled a Major League team before showing a bit of promise in 2014. In 2012, 2.9 million Cubs fans showed up to Wrigley Field and shelled out money for one of the most expensive tickets in baseball. That attendance number dropped to approximately 2.6 million in the next two years, but the Cubs remained in the top-11 for attendance even while being treated to awful baseball. The Cubs fans continued to show up despite the miserable team put on the field on the north side of Chicago.
While the on-field product was terrible, the Cubs were able to rebuild the farm system and it is now stocked with elite hitting prospects acquired in the draft. Power hitting middle infielder, and 2014 top prospect, Javier Baez came up in August and flashed the incredible power that made him so highly regarded as a prospect. But, Baez struggled mightily with contact and struck out in an astronomical 41.5% of his plate appearances. There is no question the power is there but he will have to mature as a hitter to become a productive Major Leaguer, let alone the elite power hitter he has the potential to be. International signees Arismendy Alcantara and Jorge Soler also made their Major League debuts in 2014. Alcantara produced mixed results at the plate but proved his defensive versatility by playing 421 innings in the Cubs outfield after only 84.1 innings in the outfield as a minor leaguer. Alcantara could prove most valuable as a super-sub with the ability to play multiple positions at an above average clip. Soler showed all the potential that made him coveted by the club coming out of Cuba. Soler hit 5 homers in 97 plate appearances after an injury riddled start to his career.
Kris Bryant (2013) and Kyle Schwarber (2014) appear to be everything their bats promised coming out of college and made them first round picks. Another former first-rounder, Albert Almora (2012) has struggled to stay healthy but hit well in all previous minor league stops before his promotion to Double-A Tennesse this past season and will have to prove himself there this season. The Cubs have also done well by signing free agent pitchers who underperformed their peripheral stats to one year deals and flipping them at the trade deadline. A 2013 rental of Scott Feldman and journeyman catcher Steve Clevenger netted the Cubs former top Orioles prospect, Jake Arrieta, and reliever Pedro Strop, and that appears to be about as one sided as a trade could possibly be in this age of baseball. Arrieta showed signs of promise in 2013, but exploded in 2014 after an early shoulder injury postponed his season by a few weeks to the tune of 4.9 fWAR (11th best in baseball with 150 innings pitched) and a 2.26 FIP which was second to only Clayton Kershaw. Finally, one of biggest moves of the 2014 trade deadline, sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland for the A’s top prospect, shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder Billy McKinney. There were some other trades and acquisitions but these were the major moves credited with overhauling an organization starved for impact talent.
Starting pitching remains the biggest question mark in the Cubs’ organization and that is pretty easy to see when looking at our top-ten prospect list. However, there are some intriguing arms in the system that have flashed some promise in the minor leagues. CJ Edwards is the top arm in the system but there are concerns about his body holding up to a Major League workload, but the results have been good outside of a shoulder issue. Pierce Johnson has flashed the ability to be a nice piece of a big league rotation and should start this season in Double-A. Outside of those two arms, the system is full of young, high upside arms like Dylan Cease and Carson Sands but those types of pitching prospects have the highest bust rate of any prospect type. I do not believe you will see the Cubs switch their draft game plan of drafting advanced bats at the top and over-slotting arms later in the draft, because bats are more projectable and pitchers break. So, for immediate impact pitching the Cubs will have to turn to other means to bolster the staff at the big league level.
This brings us to the 2014 free agency period. It appears the Cubs are on the verge of contention but they need an arm and really they need two, but I think the Cubs will be looking to add one top of the rotation arm this offseason and another top starter in 2015.
The Cubs have been linked to Jon Lester since before he was traded from Boston to Oakland. For some reason opinions on Lester signing with the Cubs mention his familiarity with the front office team. I call shenanigans on this line of thinking because money talks and I have yet to see a player sign a free agent deal at a discount because he likes the management, and this is especially true for a player that has never had the opportunity to cash in on the open market like Lester. There are a number of contending and big market teams in on Lester right now and the Cubs will have to pay to acquire his services. It has been reported that along with the Cubs being in on Lester, the Red Sox would like him back, the Braves are interested and meeting with him this week, and now it has been reported that the Cardinals may have entered the fray, and it’s the Cardinals pursuit that must push Theo and Co. over the top when it comes to signing Lester.
Earlier this week, the Cardinals were able to acquire Jason Heyward from the Atlanta Braves for former top-prospect Shelby Miller and a minor leaguer, Tyrell Jenkins. Heyward has consistently been a 4 WAR player in his five major league seasons and there is nothing to suggest that will not continue in 2015. This means the Cardinals probably netted an extra three or four wins in 2014, and if the Cardinals were able to sign Lester you can add another three or four wins to their overall record. If Theo and the Cubs want to be relevant in 2015 outside of prospects hitting the big leagues, the organization cannot let Lester land in St. Louis. There is nothing the Cubs could realistically do in the offseason to catch up with the Cardinals if Lester does end up there.
Cubs fans have been patient, they’ve continued to show up, they’ve learned to follow the minor league system to understand the rebuilding process, and now is the time for Theo and the Cubs organization to reward those fans by announcing their intentions with actions and it starts by adding Jon Lester to the rotation and, perhaps more importantly, keeping him off of the roster of the team that always competes at the top of the NL Central and the Cubs’ biggest rivals.
No longer can revenue, or lack thereof, be an issue as the renovations are underway and a TV deal is on the horizon. Chicago is still the third most populated city in America and the Cubs currently have payroll obligations around $61,000,000, which is the fourth lowest in baseball, and that is simply unacceptable moving forward. The Cubs were recently valued at $2 billion by Forbes, which is twice what the Ricketts family paid for the team in 2009, and the fourth most valuable MLB franchise. The time has come for the Cubs to stop pretending they are a small market team with big money issues and reward the patience that was shown by a majority of the fans during the rebuilding. If the Cubs fail to make at least one significant signing to upgrade their rotation and the Cardinals add wins in the form of Jason Heyward and Jon Lester, then the Cubs will be destined for another year of mediocre baseball, which I guess is better than awful baseball, but it’s not good enough for a fan base that has suffered for as long as they have on the north side of Chicago.
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