Since being crowned World Champions in 2011, the New Zealand All Blacks have cemented themselves as one of the greatest international sides in rugby history. And with the World Cup less than 12 months away, they have the chance to do something unprecedented in rugby: to retain the Webb Ellis Trophy.
All the signs point to another All Blacks triumph. They have won 37 out of 41 games since the last Rugby World Cup, with a further two draws (up to and including Scotland v New Zealand, 15th November 2014). Only England in 2012 and South Africa in this year’s Rugby Championship have been able to beat them.
Yet both England in 2012 and South Africa this year relied on the All Blacks as much as themselves to come away victorious.
In 2012, England were on the back of defeats against Australia and South Africa and needed to put in a performance that justified Stuart Lancaster as the man to lead England into a home World Cup.
Without doubt the England performance on that day was above and beyond anything that had been seen since the Woodward years, but in the furore of the victory, a number of things were glossed over by the English media, who were quick to wax lyrical about England’s World Cup chances.
The All Black team were at the end of a long season and a long tour. I do not question their motivation for victory; to be playing against England for the All Blacks is motivation enough, but physically they were drained. Couple this with the sickness bug that swept through the New Zealand camp on the week of the test and you have an under-prepared, tired side, going up against an England team with a point to prove.
England capitalised on a poor New Zealand performance that day, and have been riding on the crest of that single victorious wave since then. But as much as England’s performance was good, New Zealand’s was uncharacteristically bad. Dan Carter missed simple kicks, and for Chris Ashton’s try, Manu Tuilagi was able to break through the tackles of both Carter and Richie McCaw.
It was not just an excellent England performance that won that match. It was just as much a poor performance from New Zealand. And that is where the problem lies for England, and all the other rugby-playing nations. They are unable to beat the All Blacks solely as a result of their own performance – they rely also on McCaw and co. having an off-day.
Even against South Africa, if both teams played to their optimum level, I believe it would be New Zealand who would emerge victorious.
South Africa’s Rugby Championship victory over the All Blacks was another classic encounter between the world’s two best sides. However, even though New Zealand were not at their best, it still took a 55 metre penalty in the last minute for South Africa to emerge victorious.
The All Blacks have an uncanny knack of playing badly and still emerging victorious. This comes from a habit of winning, and New Zealand know what needs to be done to get a result. This contrasts with an attitude often heard in Northern hemisphere rugby, that of valiant defeat, of ‘taking the positives from the performance’.
By the time the World Cup comes around, and particularly the knockout stages, the performance will be largely irrelevant. The only thing that matters is the result.
Since that game in 2012, New Zealand have beaten England on five occasions, and in the match where England came closest to victory, the 1st test this summer, New Zealand made the sort of basic errors that we very rarely see from them. But they were still able to produce a result when it mattered.
Probably the most notable example in recent times of New Zealand not playing well, but still winning, is the match against Ireland at the end of 2013. In one of the best test matches I have ever seen, Ireland played phenomenally, and for the majority of the match New Zealand were below-par. But despite this, New Zealand were still able to come away victorious and cap off an unbeaten year.
England are capable of beating the All Blacks, and, if both can get out of their World Cup pool as winners, they would not meet until the final. The Twickenham crowd would be electric, but that on its own would not be enough. For England to become World Champions again, it would not only require England to beat New Zealand, but also for New Zealand to beat New Zealand.
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