The Ottawa Senators are giving up a boatload of shots. Every. Single. Night.
In 17 games played, the Senators have given up 592 shots (26th in the NHL). On an average night, goaltenders Craig Anderson (.935 sv%) and Robin Lehner (.913 sv%) face 34.8 shots (28th in the NHL, ahead of only Buffalo and Colorado).
The question to be asked is this: should head coach Paul MacLean and Sens management be concerned with the amount of shots they’re giving up?
The answer is a resounding yes.
Some will argue that many of the shots are coming from the outside, with minimal traffic in front. Somebody needs to explain to those people what the idea of fatigue is. Craig Anderson received some flak on social media after Saturday’s 4-2 loss in Calgary, after allowing four goals on just 25 shots, some arguably his fault.
It stands to reason that, facing a fair number of quality scoring chances on a nightly basis, a team’s goaltender will wear out. The fact that the Senators had to rely on Anderson to keep them in a game against the lowly Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night, then proceeded to look listless on Saturday in Calgary, and failed to steal points against the energetic Flames, is not a good sign.
No strategy should plan on giving up 35 shots a night, but if the Senators are going to continue giving up quality chances in their own zone, they simply won’t be able to maintain their above-.500 record.
The Sens have the third-worst shot differential in the NHL (-4.8). Couple that statistic with the fact that the team is struggling to find elite offensive talent beyond Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris, and a still-disappointing Bobby Ryan, and the prospects of a deep playoff run suddenly become entirely dependent on goaltending.
Craig Anderson is a very solid goaltender, and knows how to handle a workload. However, there’s a difference between competing for a playoff spot and being a playoff contender.
In 2009-10, Anderson played 71 games for the Colorado Avalanche. He posted a steady .917 sv%, and the Avs snuck into the playoffs as the #8-seed out west. The similarities between the 09-10 Avs and the 14-15 Sens are eerie; the Avs also had the third-worst shot differential in the league that season, and the Avs also lacked elite offensive talent (aside from Paul Stastny’s career year of 79 points).
Most ominously for Sens fans, the 09-10 Avs sputtered and died down the stretch. After racing out to a 9-1-2 start on the strength of Anderson, the Avs began to cool off and, eventually, tumble down the standings in the west. It was around the same time of the year that Anderson began to show signs of fatigue; in the month of November. Anderson was lit up twice by the Vancouver Canucks and once by the Edmonton Oilers.
He recovered of course, to help the Avs cling to the 8th seed in the Western Conference, but the moral of the story is a team that relies on its goaltending during a hot start is doomed to tumble down the standings – it’s inevitable.
There are two options for the Sens at this point – find some offence via a trade or more line juggling, or tighten up defensively and stop giving up 35 shots per game.
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