One of the major hot stove events from this week was the trade that sent Jason Heyward (along with Jordan Walden) was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller and a minor leaguer. Today, we analyze the Fantasy Impact of the Heyward Miller Trade.
Jason Heyward:
While Heyward had double digit SB and respectable AVG/OBP numbers (.271/.351), he only hit 11 HR despite playing 149 games. Even though the power numbers he has put up the last couple seasons have been underwhelming, I’m not quite ready to give up on him as someone with 20/10 value and a solid batting average (though I’ve given up on him being a superstar).
One thing contributing to his low HR totals (despite playing 149 games), was decrease in his HR/FB rate (6.5% versus 13% career total). If this happened and he was well into his 30s, I would be unlikely to trust him from a fantasy perspective and take this as a sign of an imminent decrease in value.
However, he does have a couple things going in his favor. Heyward is still only 25 and that his LD% & FB% were close to his career totals indicating that a fall off the cliff sharp drop-off is not imminent; with or without a change of scenery, I have Heyward as a decent bounce back candidate for 2015.
Adjusting for the Park Factors in St. Louis my 2015 projection for Heyward is as follows:
.284/.368/.458 21 HR 65 RBI 75 R 13 SB
While the differences between the two parks does have some impact on his AVG & HR numbers, the impact of this is very minor and should be counteracted for an increase in RBI & R. For Heyward, the trade to the Cardinals increases his fantasy value.
Shelby Miller:
While Shelby Miller’s had a solid second half (2.92 ERA), his overall numbers for 2014 were well below what I think he’s capable of. He is very fortunate that his ERA was at 3.74 because his FIP (4.54) indicated that this number should have been much worse.
One major difference between 2013 & 2014 is that his K/9 and BB/9 rates both trended in the wrong direction. If Miller was older, he would be one of those players that I would run away from. However, Miller also has the benefit of the doubt due to being very young (24) and having a season such as 2013 where he has shown himself capable of being a solid SP.
Taking into account 2014 Park Factors, Miller’s updated projection is as follows:
11 W 3.53 ERA 1.21 WHIP 168 SO 180 IP
While there are some factors working to his disadvantage such as Turner Field being more HR friendly and going from a Cardinals team that went to the NLCS to a Braves team that finished slightly below .500, I still think Miller will provide more Fantasy Value in 2015 than 2014. Personally, I think that his K/9 & BB/9 rates should bounce back from what was displayed in 2014 and there is a possibility that a change of scenery may give Miller the fresh start to even go beyond my initial projection. Miller’s trade to the Braves also increases his Fantasy Value.
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