It’s that time of year again. Baseball is now in recess, but the front offices of every team are as busy as ever devising their plans for the offseason. The first stop for general managers and scouts is the free agency period. We’ve already seen two enormous signings (and one trade) that have highlighted the early parts of this offseason.
Here at LWOS, a pair of writers, Greg Hogan and Scott Habiger decided to discuss where they believe the top five free agents in baseball will land.
THE TOP 5 DISCUSSION
Greg: First things first, Scott, who do you think are the top five Free Agents in baseball this offseason? I think we can both agree that Max Scherzer is the top free agent with Jon Lester as number two. Correct me if I’m wrong of course. After those two I see James Shields, Pablo Sandoval, and Hanley Ramirez as the next best three. I excluded Nelson Cruz from my list because I’m just THAT convinced he’s gonna stay put and resign with Baltimore. What’re your thoughts?
Scott: Greg, I do agree with you, but only because I really value starting pitching. There is a solid sabermetric argument for some position players to crack the top five. MLB.com rated the top free agents by WAR. The top five weighted by a three-year WAR rating are: 1) Max Scherzer 2) Russell Martin 3) Chase Headley 4) Hanley Ramirez and 5) Hiroki Kuroda. How do you feel about these rankings?
Greg: I’m not a fan of Headley or Kuroda. Headley’s three-year weighted WAR is impacted heavily by his stellar 2012. He’s been mediocre since and I don’t see that changing much. Kuroda is going to be 40 next season, and rumors have it he is weighing retirement or a return to Japan. Martin is an interesting case but he signed with Toronto so he’s out of the discussion. My rankings would be 1) Scherzer 2) Lester 3) Shields 4) Sandoval 5) Hanley Ramirez. With that said, let’s start with Hanley. In my mind, Hanley’s going to stay a Dodger, but the dollar amount should be interesting. He’s clearly not the same player he once was and with injuries and a lack of defensive ability, he would probably be better suited as a DH. None the less, I think the Dodgers give him a nice deal.
Scott: It’s amazing that Ramirez is only 31. It seems like a long time ago that he broke out with the Marlins. I think Andrew Friedman will be leery about unloading big cash on a guy who has shown a propensity to drift. I was shocked when Andrew Friedman confirmed Don Mattingly’s return. I don’t think he handled the Dodgers’ Hollywood personalities very well. Saddling the team and Mattingly with Ramirez’s inconsistency might not be worth the cash – even for the Dodgers.
Greg: Let’s move on to Pablo Sandoval. It simply wouldn’t feel right seeing the Kung Fu Panda in any jersey besides the Giants. In the end I think San Francisco and Sandoval work something out, somewhere in the range of six years for $100-120 million. What say you?
Scott: I hope Panda stays in Frisco, but the Giants have to start looking down the road. According to a piece by Bleacher Report the Giants have no internal answer; and may venture into free agency to look for a replacement. The names included are Alberto Callaspo, Chase Headley, Jed Lowrie, Hanley Ramirez, and Mark Reynolds. The Giants have been smart with their payroll – which is one major reason they have stayed at or near the top of MLB the past five years. Sandoval is only 28, so it might make a lot of sense for the Giants to resign him; but $120 million is a heavy burden.
Greg: $120 million is a lot for any individual player; especially for a guy who has some weight issues. If he doesn’t sign in SF, I think he’s going to wind up in Boston, especially with news that he’s having lunch with the Red Sox. Moving on to the pitchers, starting with James Shields. Shields is a tough one for me. My gut feeling says he goes to the Yankees though. They’re going to need a pitcher if they want to get back to competing with the Orioles and presumably the Red Sox.
Scott: This will be Shields’ last chance at a mega-contract so I agree with you that he will be seeking someone willing to pay his price. The Yankees, however, have given signals that they are not getting in on high stakes free agency this year. It looks like the Red Sox and Cubs are going to battle it out for Lester this week. If Lester goes to the Cubs then I see Boston signing Shields; but I don’t see the Cubs being interested in Shields no matter what happens. Shields turns 33 in December and that probably puts him outside the Cubs’ anticipated window for a championship. Epstein knows he has to overpay for pitching, but he is adamant about maximizing contracts. Any contract for Shields will take him past his mid-thirties. That’s risky money. The wildcard is that Joe Maddon and Shields are very close.
Greg: Seeing Shields in Boston would not surprise me either. However I still believe the Yankees are the more likely destination for a few reasons. They’ve got money and quite frankly, I don’t believe any reports about them not looking to spend this offseason. With Jeter off the books, they’ve got 20 million reasons why they should be looking for an innings-eater like Shields. Fun Fact, the Yankees were one of only nine teams last season not to have a pitcher throw 200 innings. Shields is their guy. And bringing up Boston is a nice transition into our next free agent, Jon Lester. I see him signing with his old Boston GM, Theo Epstein in Chicago with the Cubbies. The Cubs could compete in the NL Central next season if a few things go their way, and adding Lester is a great place to start both now, and for 2-3 years down the line.
Scott: The NL Central will be interesting for a long time to come. Since when will the Cardinals look like old men? The Pirates and the Cubs should provide sensational battles for a long time; but I think Chicago is at least a year away. I agree with you that Lester will probably end up a Cub. Pitching is the last building block for the Cubs. Cubs’ owner Tom Ricketts and Epstein have indicated that now is the time to start bolstering their staff. It should be interesting to see what the Pirates have up their sleeves this off-season.
Greg: Agreed. Now for our last and best free agent, Max Scherzer. I’ve got him going to Boston. The Red Sox, similar to the Yankees have money to spend and a need for a reliable, big-innings pitcher. Because Scherzer is younger than Shields, I think the Red Sox will favor going after him. While I’m not sure what kind of contract he will get, I’m guessing he’ll get close to Kershaw dollars on the open market. What do you think?
Scott: The bottom line is that he will be grossly overpaid. He is only 30 and that is a plus. Apparently, the Angels are in play; but I agree with you that Scherzer will probably end up in Boston – especially if the Cubs sign Lester. The Red Sox and the Angels make sense, even if the Boston signs Shields. It seems like the big cows at the trough never learn that spending all your cash on front line starters is very risky business.
Greg: The Angels are an interesting option. Can’t imagine they’d be able to afford Scherzer in addition to all the other monster contracts they already have. Anything can happen though, and we’ve already seen that with Toronto sneaking in to grab Martin. I still like Scherzer going to Boston though. They need to spend some money on a frontline starter.
Scott: Free agency is a pitcher friendly market. In the new, “steroid free,” era of MLB, developing teams are drafting more and more young offensive talent. Pitchers have proven to be risky business. Teams like the Cubs, Pirates, and even the Astros can fill out the final steps of rebuilding by signing pitchers through free agency. Rather than watch top ten picks blow out their arms before they reach the big leagues, franchises can make expensive, but safer investments in pitchers who have proven they can pass the 200 inning test.
Greg: Very true. Although with the increase in bullpen usage over the past decade, and particularly in this postseason, I think we may see less of a demand for starters in the future. With this talented crop however, I’m sure the dollars will be flying. Regardless of what happens, it’s sure to be entertaining. Thanks for doing this with me, Scott.
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow us on Twitter – @scott_habiger and @GregGoose15. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
For the latest in sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for?
