Alright! The first few dominoes have fallen in the Major League Baseball offseason and usually this means more dominoes will fall in pretty quick succession. Let’s take a look at today’s big moves and throw out some knee-jerk reactions and then break down the moves in a little more detail afterwards, and I am sure over the next week or so you will see us post a multitude of updates on these and other transactions.
Move 1: Russell Martin signs with the Toronto Blue Jays for 5 years and $82 million
Knee-Jerk Reaction:
The Blue Jays dramatically upgrade their catcher position by bringing back the second best Canadian born player in the game today (nothing to back that up, remember this is knee-jerk). Russell Martin is an OBP machine for a catcher and frames the hell out of every pitch thrown so his value might actually be underappreciated. Not only is Martin an OBP monster and pitch framing ninja, but his former pitching co-workers rave about his ability to call a game and handle a pitching staff and you can’t quantify leadership.
Quick Analysis:
Martin was worth 9.4 fWAR over the last two seasons in Pittsburgh and that’s not accounting for his elite pitch framing ability. According to StatCorner.com Russell was +11.7 runs saved in 2014 and +17.0 in 2013 which would mean Russell was worth an extra 1.3 WAR and 1.8 WAR respectively. Based on aging curves used by most projection systems, you’ll see an average decline of 0.5 WAR for every season past their prime. So using a conservative estimate on pitch framing and a standard aging curve the Blue Jays can expect 4.5, 4.0, 3.5, 3.0 and 2.5 WAR for a total of 17.5 WAR for the duration of the five-year deal. Even if you don’t believe that pitch framing is a thing and you eliminate it from my estimates the Blue Jays still purchased 12.5 WAR with Martin. Either way you slice it, this contract makes sense from a money perspective.
Move 2: Braves and Cardinals Blockbuster – Heyward and Walden for Miller and Jenkins
Knee-Jerk Reaction:
This was an overwhelming win for the St. Louis Cardinals because everything they touch is pure gold and Jason Heyward fills the void left after Oscar Taveras decided to drink and drive this offseason. The Braves lost this because they traded a star for a once-upon-a-time top prospect and some prospect named Jenkins and the Cardinals would never give up on a pitcher worth anything.
Analysis:
On the surface this is a win for the Cardinals because they not only turned pitching into the more valuable commodity of hitting, but they also ended up with unquestionably the best player in this deal. The one major caveat to this deal is that Jason Heyward is a free agent after the 2015 season. If the Cardinals don’t sign him to a long term deal, then they will tender a Qualifying Offer and accept the compensatory draft pick when he moves on. In essence, the Cardinals will have turned Shelby Miller, who still can be a legit #2 in a rotation, and one of their top 10-12 prospects in Jenkins into a two years of a solid reliever, one year of an elite outfieler and a top 40 draft pick, and that is the worst case scenario. If the Cardinals are able to sign Heyward to an extension then it’s an overwhelming win for the organization.
As for the Braves, they weren’t going to be able to sign Heyward before he hit free agency. The Braves needed pitching because Mike Minor and Kris Medlen seem to have surgery more than they take the mound for Atlanta, Ervin Santana is going elsewhere and Aaron Harang my finally retire. The Braves also have a history of developing pitching, so they may be able to get more out of Tyrell Jenkins than the Cardinals could. If Shelby Miller is not broken, and the Braves cannot believe that he is or this trade is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen, then maybe Miller can reach his considerable potential. The secondary piece, Tyrell Jenkins, has mid-rotation potential, and has a mix of an above-average fastball, a curveball that flashed plus when I scouted him this fall in Arizona, and an average change-up. It’s not a great haul you would expect from trading a star like Heyward, but the Braves have turned a pending free agent into nine years of control for two starting pitchers.
Keep checking back with us for more updates on the MLB off-season.
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Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
