When the newest College Football Playoff Poll came out earlier this week, the big deal up top was Oregon jumping Florida State for number two in the most important poll of them all. The Ducks dispatching of a ranked Utah team on the road was enough give them the edge over a Florida State team that consistently plays down to their opponents.
FSU’s win over Virginia got them to 9-0 and set up a showdown with Miami (FL), but it was hardly a dominant effort. The Cavaliers were 4-2 in early October, but have now lost four straight and fallen into must-win situations in their last two games to get bowl eligible.
It is tough to win all of your games, no matter how much style you do it with. But, the committee has made it clear that it will continue to drop the Seminoles if their play doesn’t improve. Falling behind Oregon in the new poll furthers my belief that it’s win out or bust for Florida State. Which means it’s Florida State or bust for the ACC itself.
After an elimination weekend, we’re down to a handful of teams who can make the playoff, or impact who makes the playoff. There are eight one-loss teams remaining in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
With the Egg Bowl, Iron Bowl, and conference championship games on the horizon, we’re going to get more unofficial quarterfinals for the CFP.
Three of those games: Egg Bowl, SEC and ACC Title, could feature undefeated teams. Mississippi State travels to Tuscaloosa this week, and will face their stiffest test yet as road underdogs in Alabama (favored by 8 as of now).
The two undefeated teams up top have identical records, and that is where the similarities end. The Bulldogs can absorb a loss that Florida State cannot. If Mississippi State beats Alabama in Tuscaloosa, wins the Egg Bowl, and gets to the SEC Title Game, their chances of going to the playoff are extremely good.
The timing of losses matters greatly, so if an SEC East team pulls off a huge upset over the West, would the committee still put a 12-1 Mississippi State team in the final four?
If Missouri or Georgia wins the SEC, they have to get into the playoff, right? The crowned champion of the nation’s best conference would trump any other team in the field, even at two losses. Or that seems to be the logic.
The big question for the SEC is always how many teams, not if there is a team. An upset in the title game could get them two, which could cause riots in Big 12 country. If a one-loss SEC team, or a two-loss SEC champ is left out, there’s riots elsewhere.
If Florida State gets by Miami (FL), Boston College and Florida, and makes it to the ACC Championship Game, but falls to the Coastal Champ, I don’t see a way they can get in the CFP. Falling behind a one-loss Oregon squad this week solidifies that the committee is prepped to send FSU down the totem pole if they slip up.
Which brings us to Duke. The Blue Devils are in the driver’s seat to win the Coastal and get a rematch from last year’s title game that Florida State won 45-7.
Duke is the lowest ranked Power Five one-loss team. The Devils are ranked 21st in the current CFP Poll. They close the season with three home games: VA Tech, UNC, and Wake Forest. Duke will be favored in all three, and has a good shot to finish the regular season 11-1.
If FSU has no shot of getting to the playoff with a loss on their record, a loss would be devastating to Duke. Their playoff shot went up in smoke with a loss to Miami (FL).
Duke is ranked lower than ten two-loss teams, and three-loss LSU. Florida State should remain in playoff contention as long as they win, and it would take a monumental upset in the ACC Championship Game to get Duke in the playoff conversation.
Even a significant move up the poll would leave Duke on the outside looking in.
A one-loss ACC champion is less appealing than a two-loss SEC champion, and this puts Duke and Florida State at a disadvantage.
FSU’s tiptoeing of the line this year has left them vulnerable to critics. This could hurt Duke even if they win since people have been waiting for the other shoe to drop in Tallahassee all year. As hard as it is to win all of one’s games, there are clouds over the Noles, and they’re shaped like Ducks, Bears, and Horned Frogs.
I can make no argument that Florida State or Duke should be anywhere other than their current spots. With Florida State being the defending champions, and number one for a good part of the season, they have been the torch carrier for the conference all year. Once their string of average play became the norm rather than the exception, their armor was damaged and the ACC’s top dog earned little to no room for error
FSU has not been nearly as dominant as they were in their title run last season. They’ve had too many close calls, and Jameis Winston has not shown the same presence in the backfield as he did in last year’s Heisman campaign. They’ve had too many games come down to the wire that didn’t need to. Teams they have beaten are now losing (Oklahoma State, Notre Dame), and every week seems to be the week that someone can knock off the Seminoles.
Duke Johnson and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes get that shot this week in Sun Life Stadium. After passing their Clemson (minus Jameis), Notre Dame and Louisville tests earlier in the year, FSU gets one last road game against an in-state rival to try and gain some ground back on the top two in the CFP Poll.
Thank you for reading. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
For the latest in sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for?
Main Photo:
