Well, that was unexpected. As you’ve heard by now, the Mets formally announced their entrance into the free agency foray by signing Michael Cuddyer to a two-year, $21 million deal. Cuddyer was the recipient of an odd qualifying offer from the Rockies, and therefore the Mets forfeit the 15th overall pick in the 2015 draft, and the Rockies get a sandwich round pick. The Amazin’s were reported to be very interested in Cuddyer’s services, but went cold on him when Colorado gave him the QO. Until they signed him anyway, of course.
What does this all mean, exactly? Well first of all, in a vacuum, this is a godawful move for the Mets. Cuddyer is 35, and has played in only 179 games in the last two seasons. He’s been positively atrocious on defense in the outfield, but surprisingly serviceable at first, and could theoretically be the platoon answer to Lucas Duda’s struggles against elite lefties. There’s no DH slot in the National League. Did I mention the Mets gave up the 15th overall pick for him? You don’t give that up for a bad outfielder who moonlights as a platoon first-bagger. To be fair, Cuddyer is a fun bat to stick in the middle of the New York batting order. That’s all fine and dandy. Yet this signing makes very, very little sense.
That’s all in a vacuum, as I mentioned. Let’s look at in the context of everything. The main reason I hate this deal on paper is that the Mets sacrificed a pretty darn good pick to sign a massive defensive liability to play in the National League. If that draft pick weren’t attached, this signing wouldn’t be nearly as offensive to my sensibilities. However, when we consider that this is the Mets we’re talking about, things start to fall into place in their own Mets-y way. New York has itself a really freaking good farm system. They had the fourth overall pick last year, too, and used it on outfielder Michael Conforto. Both Conforto and his fellow outfield prospect Brandon Nimmo could both be ready in about two years’ time, which happens to be when Cuddyer’s contract is up. Between those two, catcher Kevin Plawecki, infielder Dilson Herrera, first baseman Dom Smith, and approximately a trillion good pitchers, perhaps the Mets feel they can go a year without a first-rounder. It’s a bold idea if that’s the case, and it just might be worth it.
Cuddyer isn’t the kind of guy you toss away a draft pick away for so that you can proudly say, “Look! We’re buying! We’re all in! Wild Card here we come!” He’s a fine complimentary player on a contending team, but he’s not the player that turns a team into a contender (even with Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell coming back). The Mets still need a shortstop; they still need David Wright and Curtis Granderson to hit again. Wright should do just that; we’ll see what happens to Granderson. They’re moving in the fences again at Citi Field, which should help. Yet the Mets need another bat, and a big one.
It was reported that they’re apparently talking to Colorado about Troy Tulowitzki. While the logic of that move is questionable (more prospect loss would be involved, and Tulo shares Cuddyer’s affinity for the disabled list), he’d be the bat to put them over the top. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that Tulo isn’t Sandy Alderson’s real target, and those talks are just due diligence.
You don’t forfeit the first rounder and give out that kind of money unless you’re blowing up the whole event. And there just happens to be an impact bat out there tied to draft pick compensation that can do a decent impression of someone with the capacity to play shortstop. Let me introduce you to Hanley Ramirez, ladies and gentlemen. At first glance, Hanley appears to be pretty far outside of the Mets’ payroll capacity, especially after tossing $21 million at Cuddyer. But why not? Why not break the bank on Hanley? The only reason to sign Cuddyer under these circumstances is if the Mets are firmly moving into win-now mode. Giving up the 15th overall pick for a two-year placeholder borders on being moronic, and I have a lot more faith in Sandy Alderson than that.
To create monetary space for Hanley, the Mets could pull off a long-theorized Daniel Murphy trade, or move one of Dillon Gee or Jon Niese, or perhaps a package of two of those guys for prospects. Hey look, payroll space! Go ahead, punt the draft, sign Hanley, pick up a couple prospects from that trade (which essentially replace the draftees you lost, except these guys will be closer to the bigs), and become the most impressive also-ran to the Nationals. After all, the Phillies are going to move everything that’s not nailed down (and that won’t stop them from trying to move nailed down stuff like Ryan Howard). The Braves were 28th in run scoring in 2014, and 2016 free agents Jason Heyward and Justin Upton make mighty appealing trade chips. Evan Gattis could also be on the way out. The Marlins seem to be on the cusp of making some noise, but the gap in talent between their centerpieces and complimentary players is mind-boggling. Second place is there for the taking for the Mets, and that means Wild Card contention. It’ll be difficult to pry it away from the cluster of middling contenders in the Central and West, but it wouldn’t be unthinkable for the Mets to pad their record by feasting on the basement-dwellers in their own division.
All of that is assuming that the Mets really do want to grab Hanley. Trading for that shortstop, be it Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or even Starlin Castro, only hurts the wealth of minor-leaguers that was just denied a really good boost. If this is actually the Mets’ big move, shame on them. The way to justify this is with more draft pick burning, on someone that can make a real difference and catapult the Amazin’s into playoff consideration. Otherwise, this is going to look awfully silly in two years’ time.
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