For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason that the gap between #25 and #26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between #24 and #25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP, Coaches’, and CFP rankings) or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of there being more than 25 Top 25 teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
By my count, there are 15 teams remaining who can actually still hope to make the CFP.
In Right Now (i.e. controls own destiny):
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Mississippi State | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 25-50 | 2 |
The Bulldogs have a solid resume but that 81+ number is ugly and one more will be added to it when they play Vanderbilt. They have one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country and that shows where they have some SOS numbers outside the Top 50 even though they play in the SEC West. It won’t matter as long as they continue winning, but if they don’t win the SEC they will put the committee in a tough predicament about what precedent it will set about nonconference schedules if they want to keep Mississippi State in.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Florida State | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 45-65 | 1 |
The Seminoles SOS range is not so pretty, but it’s not as bad as some would have you believe. Their Top 25 wins are over Clemson and Notre Dame, though those might not stand up until the end of the season. Also, future opponent Florida is Top 25 in several computers, though that may also not last until they play. This resume is not bad overall, especially considering that all three remaining opponents are in the Top 50. They don’t want to risk losing a game, but they are not definitely out if they do—as some would want you to believe.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Oregon | 0-0 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 15-25 | 0 |
Five games against Top 40 teams and only two against teams outside the Top 80 (though Colorado will be a third) makes this a strong resume. Also consider the fact that the Ducks had a ton of injuries in their loss, and it’s very clear that Oregon controls their own destiny. Win out and they are in.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Arizona State | 0-0 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 20-35 | 1 |
What? Arizona State controls their own destiny? Of course they do. Five games against Top 25 teams plus an extra one against Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game, combined with that nice SOS number, means that Arizona State is a lock if they win out. There is zero doubt about that. Not even the blowout loss to UCLA changes this.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Alabama | 0-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-15 | 2 |
Even with a backloaded schedule, Alabama’s SOS is sky-high. Those resume numbers are a tiny bit misleading, as the computers count both Florida and Texas A&M as Top 25 wins, which probably won’t last until the end of the season. Still, this is a more than solid resume and if Alabama wins out, there is no question that they are one of the top four teams in this country.
On the Bubble:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| TCU | 0-1 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 15-40 | 0 |
TCU is not as safe as some want you to think. The committee gave them some early-season support, but the fact is that their resume is not much better than Baylor’s (right below) and they lost to Baylor head-to-head. That SOS number will drop quite a bit with games left against Kansas and Iowa State. Also, that Minnesota win is probably going to seem less valuable after the Gophers play Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin to close the season. Add that all up and TCU is squarely on the bubble—and probably needs a Baylor loss to get in.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Baylor | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 50-80 | 1 |
That 5-0 number against teams outside the Top 80 is ugly, but no uglier than what TCU will end up with. The SOS number is also ugly (though somehow Massey is a huge outlier with Baylor’s SOS at #23; I can’t explain that) but it again should be close to TCU’s by the end of the year. Both Big XII schools are squarely on the bubble because we can’t know which way the committee will judge them. Then again, maybe they’re on the bubble because they have to worry about Ohio State behind them.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Ohio State | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 1-0 | 45-55 | 1 |
Ohio State has only one game against a Top 25 team, which cannot help the resume very much. And while they have only played one team outside the Top 80, Illinois and Navy are very close to being there, along with Indiana who still remains on the Buckeyes’ schedule. It’s not a completely false statement to say that Ohio State is relying on the eye test and some forgiveness for that loss (Virginia Tech may still end the year as a Top 40 team, which is not so awful), but the fact remains that their SOS is near the same ranges as Baylor, Florida State, and where TCU’s will end up. The Buckeyes probably need to meet an 11-1 Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game to add a little more meat to this resume, but it is still in the same bubble as TCU and Baylor at the moment.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Auburn | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 |
Auburn has a nearly-unanimous #1 SOS and two Top 25 games left. That resume is insane, and it’s hard to keep them out if they win the rest of their games. The only thing against them will be that they are not a conference champion. I guess we’ll find out just how much the committee values that particular criteria when we see where Auburn ends up.
Still Alive:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Nebraska | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 55-85 | 1 |
This is what a meatless resume looks like. Nebraska’s final three regular-season games are against Top 40 teams, though, and Ohio State probably awaits in the Big Ten Championship Game. The resume has some potential, even if it’s ugly right now.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Duke | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 70-100 | 0 |
There is not much to say about this resume, other than the fact that if you add a win over undefeated Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, it’s possible that they don’t get left out. Basically, though, Duke is playing for the Orange Bowl.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Mississippi | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-10 | 1 |
What immediately sticks out is the great SOS number and the lack of games against teams outside the Top 80. Also, six games against the Top 40 is a lot, with potentially two more remaining. Is this resume enough to offset that extra loss when compared to Ohio State, TCU, or Baylor? Probably. Is it enough to offset that extra loss and not being a conference champion? Probably not, but we’ll find out.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| UCLA | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 5-10 | 0 |
UCLA gets in here because of their four Top 25 games and their strong SOS. That schedule number won’t even drop with remaining games against Stanford and USC. It’s as good a 2-loss resume as you’ll see (except for Auburn’s) and they will definitely be in the discussion if they win out and beat Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Of course, they will need some help from Arizona State to get in there. The Sun Devils currently control their own destiny in the Pac 12 South.
Too Early to Eliminate:
Kansas State, Georgia, Arizona
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