The Wins Column: MLS Market Battle Nearing Its End

Parity? That’s long been thrown out the window. With the exception of my demon-plagued Toronto FC, the majority of Major League soccer’s big spenders are enjoying the most success in the ongoing MLS Cup Playoffs.

The New York Red Bulls are through to the Eastern Conference Finals. As I write this column on my usual Sunday morning, I can pretty safely say New England and their four away goals will join them there. If Los Angeles and Seattle do what everyone expects of them to do, we’ll get to see the two sides duke it out yet again, this time in the Western Conference Finals (Update: New England and Los Angeles are both through to the next round, getting there in rather emphatic fashion).

By population, they are all in the top half of MLS markets. By payroll (again ignoring Toronto and also Orlando City SC) they are the top four. The MLS market battle may be continuing, but in the small vs big war the playoffs are just one indicator that the little guys may be nearing their breaking point.

The following table breaks down both the points position and the payroll position of each MLS club in 2014. Lower numbers in columns 2 and 3 mean that a club played better and paid more. The fourth column shows the difference between a club’s play and payroll standings. Big positive numbers means that Billy Beane is working undercover. Big negative numbers means your club could make better use of their money by burning it.

Don’t get me wrong, the big variance number do suggest that parity is still out there. But some of the numbers are pretty inflated, suggesting that going big or going home is coming in hot. D.C. got a pile of MLS veterans on the cheap and brought them together for a stellar regular season. Real Salt Lake created that group internally and have kept payroll down by not shelling out on a big-name DP. Toronto FC lost Michael Bradley to the World Cup and Jermain Defoe to injuries and homesickness. Montreal paid how much money to their giant contingent of 30-and-overs? Columbus? They’re good, but unspectacular. Their success is really a by-product of teams who should have been better than them underperforming.

Adding to the argument that the big markets are on the verge of defeating small markets in MLS’ market battle is the recent track record of expansion. From 2010 to 2014, we’ve seen four new sides come into the league. Two of them, Portland and Vancouver, have undoubtedly been excellent. Both mid-market clubs have joined Seattle in creating an intense soccer culture in the Pacific Northwest, both clubs are willing to spend money, and both clubs have had some degree of success (or at least in Vancouver’s case have a good outlook for the future).

The other two expansion franchises, Philadelphia and Montreal, haven’t quite reached that level. Montreal showed promise in 2012 and earl 2013, but somebody flicked a switch about 18 months ago that saw their aging stars crumble. Montreal’s spending decisions were similar to you going out today and buying shares in Blockbuster. With Marco Di Vaio now out of the picture, fans will be hoping that management will finally realize to go young. Philadelphia is becoming a peculiar Toronto-Chicago hybrid. They can spend (they rescued Maurice Edu from his European disaster) but they can’t spend big (it’s rumoured that they lost out in a bidding war with Toronto for Michael Bradley before buying Edu). They can play well, but as shown against Columbus they can just as easily flame out. Both clubs tried to be big-market to an extent, but neither really embraced the mindset.

Looking to the future, small market expansion has been put on hold. New York City FC and Los Angeles FC will be big spenders in big markets. Whether they succeed remains a question, but they definitely aren’t going to roll over like Chivas did. Commissioner Don Garber’s legacy could be largely determined by the success of the two clubs.

Many people (myself included) don’t believe that doubling down on existing markets is the way to go. But again, if both go big, anything is possible. And there’s already some evidence that both sides will try. NYCFC already have David Villa and Frank Lampard on the books, while LAFC have an ownership group that at 22 members may already exceed Chivas’ old season-ticket base.

Orlando may be a small market, but they aren’t showing any indication of it. They’ve made Kaka both the highest-paid and highest stature player in league history without having him step out onto the pitch. Fans are showing up in droves. If there were questions about whether purple would be a good addition to MLS’ colour palette, they’ve been answered with a resounding yes.

As for Atlanta, they will arrive in a big market and play in a big stadium. They’ve also got an owner who is filthy rich. Their similarity to New England is striking. But of course, the Revolution are a team of two halves: pre- and post-Jermaine Jones signing. One is a big club with big goals, one was a side with potential but no real promise. Hopefully, Atlanta will see the stark difference between those two sides and be willing to spend competitively.

The MLS market battle isn’t over. But we’ve reached D-Day. The end is in sight. The business of soccer around the world is to spend money, quite often past the point of reason. As long as Garber is around, MLS will continue to be reasonable. But hey, being adventurous and challenging old limits isn’t such a bad thing.

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