This is certainly more fun than the old BCS and the weekly intrigue has to be driving up the ratings, but I am actually starting to be afraid to sit at my keyboard and write about college football. The selection committee seems to have put a hex on potential suitors for the inaugural playoff championship. All season long we have played the waiting game and listened to the pundits spell off the usual teams to expect come New Year’s Day. Just hold your cell phones there cub reporter, because we’re not even close to finished yet. There can be no way that 12 teams from the Amway Coaches Poll Top 25 could face each other Saturday and not see a seismic shift once again in the Coaches Poll and the Selection Committee The other part of the equation is trying to decipher who is better based on there being three unbeaten teams and still ten teams sitting with 1 loss on their resumé.
Can Arizona State be better than Florida State? Based on their common foe, Notre Dame, you would be hard pressed to say FSU has a stronger argument than the Sun Devils. TCU makes a strong case after dismantling a sound Kansas State squad in Fort Worth on Saturday night. Please don’t discount Baylor who beat TCU and over the weekend totally beat down the Sooners who now have 3 losses and were favored to win the Big 12. Then of course you have to look at Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes and the masterful job they did taking away Mark D’Antonio’s guaranteed win in East Lansing. Alabama went into overtime to subdue LSU, who may be the best 3 loss team we will see all season, and the list could go on and on for hours.
So continuing with our hypothetical chaos theory, let’s look at who has a chance at the yellow brick road as it were after Week 11’s games have been completed. Once again we can probably speculate the losers, or in this case non-invitees to the selection party, better than we could predict the final four teams who will actually be in the playoff at the end of the year. For certain Auburn’s timely loss to Texas A&M puts them outside selection, but with a proviso, as they could still play spoiler at Georgia next week and ruin the Crimson Tide’s hopes later this month in Tuscaloosa. It seemed that Auburn was fighting from behind all afternoon and even at the end it was a meager three-point loss. Give Kyle Allen and the Aggies lots of credit for not folding the tent and mailing in their season. Coach Kevin Sumlin let his team air it out and tripped on home to let the 12th man celebrate the Aggie victory.
Elsewhere in the SEC it was another classic battle royale down in Death Valley. LSU went toe to toe with Alabama and looked to be the seventh spoiler of the weekend, until an untimely out of bounds kickoff gave the Crimson Tide one last gasp which they took with no time outs and a shortened field. Once the game was tied and we were going to overtime it became obvious to most that Alabama was going to find a way to win this thing. This may not be the way that coach Saban wants to win any games, but the Crimson Tide are having fun doing it. Les Miles will have to find something good for his three loss team to play and look forward to. The LSU Tigers are spent.
Mississippi State had a cupcake game on the weekend, but two of their three remaining games promise to shape 2014 college football more than any of the finishing games in other conferences. Dak Prescott has done everything exceptionally well and yet losses to Alabama this week and the season-ender against Mississippi would basically ruin an otherwise terrific campaign. I expect at least a split and if the Bulldogs win over Alabama then they will own the tiebreaker in the SEC West.
Arizona State and Oregon are on a collision course. Coach Todd Graham has the youngest offensive coordinator on board and now would be a good time for that move to pay dividends. Quarterback Taylor Kelly seems to have the right mix of moxie and presence to move this club to the next level. The Sun Devils forced Notre Dame into several costly mistakes and seemed to be the perfect host, taking advantage of every Everett Golson miscue. This means that Notre Dame has to be finished because both of their losses are to higher ranked teams and head-to-head would leave them on the sidelines. Over in Eugene, OR we still have to deal with Mariota Mania such as it is. The Ducks are on the precipice of something great and only Colorado and Oregon State stand in the way of making it to the Pac-12 Championship. The Ducks could win out and no one will stop them from the playoff.
My, oh my how Ohio State took out Michigan State. Mark D’Antonio promised bigger things and in most cases his Spartans delivered. However the bottom line is that the Urban Meyer led Buckeyes are making another familiar push for the postseason. Part of the time-honored problem is that we haven’t got a clear picture yet on their western opponent. Nebraska and Wisconsin want to be taken seriously, but the truth of the matter is that only one of these programs can move forward, and that is only if Minnesota doesn’t come to the party as spoilers: you know, those Golden Gophers who laid 51 big ones on a decent Iowa team last Saturday. Nebraska plays out against Wisconsin next week, then Minnesota and finishes with Iowa. Ohio State, who is now heavily favored in the East, runs the table out against Minnesota, Indiana and of course finishes with arch rival Michigan. Nebraska has only one loss against a quality opponent, Michigan State, but needs to diversify if they want to be taken seriously. Right now if you shut down Abdullah, as the Spartans did, then Nebraska is finished before they start.
I specifically haven’t said much about Florida State as their finishing run is at Miami and home to Boston College then in-state rival Florida. These looked a lot easier early in the season, but Duke Johnson will keep the Seminoles on their toes this weekend, and I expect Florida to run at Florida State much like they took down Georgia two weeks ago. FSU continues to start slow and build up momentum as the game goes on. This can only last as long as the other team doesn’t find that magical way to stop the Seminoles in the second half. The competition will get stiffer for sure and the Seminoles will have to rise up. Win out and Florida State is another sure thing in the playoff.
Which brings us to the Big 12, or rather TCU. The Horned Frogs have spent the last two years, post Andy Dalton, trying to justify their entrance into the conference. Most Gary Patterson squads over the last decade have been ultra competitive, which is why the Big 12 extended an invitation in the first place. Last Saturday any demons were cleansed and TCU whooped a very good Kansas State team in the process. Mission accomplished for now, with only Kansas, Texas and Iowa State standing in the way. The Horned Frogs could/should win out and then wait for all of the other power five conferences to have their championship games. This is where TCU has a decided advantage from the other one loss teams.
Let’s just say for instance that Ohio State and Nebraska run the table on both sides of the Big Ten and Oregon with Arizona State does likewise in the Pac-12. TCU at 11-1 would be in a better spot and not have to play a 13th game. The Pac-12 and the Big Ten would be basically eliminating each other, and based on how well you play, you could also eliminate yourself with a poor winning game. This is assuming that Florida State finishes undefeated and someone from the SEC moves forward. TCU would have a bird’s eye view of the chaos of Championship weekend. For the pundits that I am sure will correct me, I am well aware that Alabama and Mississippi could both become two loss teams, and that the SEC might beat each other out of the playoff system. I just haven’t wrapped my keyboard around that possibility yet.
Next weekend there will be eight more top 25 teams competing against each other which I am sure will turn the polls upside down one more time. Enjoy the weekend.
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