Week 11 CFP Implications: Ohio State Still Alive

We have to wait until Tuesday night to see the actual standings, but there is one thing that the Ohio State Buckeyes can be pretty sure about–they’re going to be ranked pretty high when the new standings come out.

It is unlikely that the Buckeyes stay behind any two-loss teams after their dismantling of Michigan State Saturday night, though it won’t be a complete shocker if Ole Miss or Auburn stay ahead of the Buckeyes. That means that Ohio State should expect to be the #8 team in the country at worst on Tuesday night (#7 if the committee decides that their resume is now better than Baylor’s).

Ohio State’s major problem is that they have what is the biggest eyesore among one-loss teams. Their loss to Virginia Tech is pretty ugly. The Hokies are not a bad team, but they are certainly mediocre at best. Then again, if the committee decides that the current Ohio State team is a very different group than the one that lost that early October game in Columbus, the Buckeyes could jump even higher than that loss probably allows. Ohio State lost that game due to not being able to function on offense. This week, though, the J.T. Barrett-led Ohio State team put up better numbers on Michigan State than Oregon did earlier in the year.

As the rest of the country stands, though, Ohio State is still probably sitting on the outside of the playoff picture. With Notre Dame written out of the equation, we are basically down to four spots to split between the five conferences. There is a chance that the SEC could still keep two teams in the mix if Alabama beats Mississippi State and then both win out, but the committee will most likely want to not make waves and just take four conference champions. Also, if Mississippi State got a bid as a conference non-champion it would send a very poor message, as their non-conference schedule this year was about as abysmal as you can imagine (well, until you look at Baylor’s). So, for the time being, let’s assume that four different conferences will have their champions represent them in the inaugural College Football Playoff.

Now the question begs itself: which conference gets left out of the CFP party? The first obvious assumption is that the SEC is in, right? Well, maybe not. There is that nagging division called the SEC East. If Missouri were to lose another conference game then somehow win the SEC Championship Game, it is entirely possible to see the SEC locked out of the playoff, especially if every other power conference has a one-loss champion. This is pure speculation, but I think there is a standard assumption that a two-loss SEC West team will probably get a bid before a two-loss champion from another conference if the alternative is leaving the SEC out entirely.

But, assuming that a team from the West wins that conference championship game, the SEC is taking one of those spots. The three spots that are left for the last four conferences, though, are completely up for grabs. A one-loss Pac-12 champion is guaranteed to be in at this point and Oregon really doesn’t have any loseable games remaining before the Pac-12 Championship Game (maybe the Civil War in Corvallis but Oregon State just isn’t good enough). They have four weeks to heal up and if they win out, they are in. The same goes for Arizona State in the Pac-12 South. If they win out, they’re a lock.

The ACC is the conference with the safest path for a bid right now, but whose hold on that bid is the most tenuous. As long as Florida State remains undefeated, they are in. But if they drop just one game (and their trip to Miami next week will not be easy), their resume does not match up so favorably with the other one-loss teams. They might get some benefit of the doubt for being defending champions, but tensions will be very high in Tallahassee if they drop just one game.

The Big 12 has an interesting conundrum in that they can have co-champions. If TCU and Baylor both win out, TCU will have the better resume and the better loss while Baylor has a three-point head-to-head win at home. It also does not help that Baylor’s resume won’t match up favorably against, say, Ohio State’s. TCU’s resume might.

And then there are the Buckeyes. Ohio State looks like they may be one of the best teams in the country right now. They are playing far better than they were early in the season. How much of a break does the committee give them for that? We’ll begin to get an insight into that on Tuesday night. But, really, that can shift drastically between now and the end of the year.

That’s what we have left. Five conferences. Four spots. And finding the best arbitrary point on how to decide who to keep out.

Main Photo: