It may be November, but it’s never too early to look forward to the 2015 baseball season. Today, I continue with my First Base Rankings.
Two Read part 1 of the rankings, click here.
12) Prince Fielder
Projection: .268/.374/.440 20 HR 80 R 90 RBI 1 SB
While Fielder has a lot of the same red flags as another high profile first baseman that is much lower in my rankings (Joey Votto) such as downward trend in power (HR/FB rate), reaching the wrong side of 30 and losing much of last year to injury, when it comes to the ability to stay healthy he gets the benefit of the doubt as he managed to stay healthy from 2006 through 2013. That being said, I think his days of hitting 35+ HR are a thing of the past.
11) Chris Davis
Projection: .243/.347/.494 33 HR 80 R 95 RBI 4 SB
There is no question Davis’ stock is down a lot from last year as he got suspended towards the end of the season and he only hit .196. Lack of power was not the issue as he went yard 26 times, and his HR/FB rate was very consistent with his career total. The one question with him is how much does his batting average improve this year? While he had BABIPs of .335 & .336 in 2012 & 2013, his BABIP dropped over 90 points last year.
Since there was no corresponding drop in his underlying numbers, I’m going to chalk most but not all of this to bad luck. I gave a conservative estimate on his BABIP .304 which is still 16 points below his career total. This moves my projected average for him into the .240s. With Davis, you will get power the question is how much of a hit are you going/willing to take for batting average?
10) Lucas Duda
Projection: .261/.363/.520 33 HR 80 R 95 RBI 4 SB
Duda had a breakout season in 2014, hitting 30 HR. While his batting average is likely to not be great, he has consistently improved in hitting for power over the last few years as his HR/FB rate improved for the third consecutive season in 2014 (something that I think will continue into 2015). Bottom line, his 2014 performance is not a fluke.
9) David Ortiz
Disclaimer: Ortiz only eligible at 1B for leagues with a minimum position eligibility of 5 games or less
Projection: .276/.369/.539 34 HR 65 R 95 RBI 2 SB
Most likely, the only place you will be able to start Ortiz is in your utility spot. However, if you can manage to fit him in at 1B, he is still a very good option. Despite being 38, he has shown little sign of slowing down. He should improve slightly from last year’s .263 AVG and his HR/FB rate has stayed very close to career totals. Eventually, he’s going to struggle against major league pitching but he still has at least a couple 30+ HR seasons left in the tank.
Projection: .265/.323/.423 21 HR 80 R 105 RBI 2 SB
The days of Gonzalez being a 30+ HR threat like he was from 2007-2010 may have come and gone but he still has plenty of value. While his AVG/HR totals have moved into the nothing special category, he still holds value. First, he’s in the middle of an extremely loaded Dodgers lineup. Also, he’s consistently taken advantage of RBI opportunities year after year as he has driven in at least 99 runs every season since 2007 and there seems to be little reason to think the RBI opportunities are going to dry up in 2015.
Projection: .272/.363/.543 37 HR 80 R 90 RBI 5 SB
Encarnacion will be 32 by opening day but his bat shows no sign of slowing down. While he did miss some time in 2014, he still put up very healthy power numbers which continues to make him a very valuable player.
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