Remember when you were a kid and you’d get one of those paperback books with all the games in it, for when you were taking a long road trip with the family? You’d get some word search or some connect the dots, or some coloring. Maybe even a Mad Libs, where you try to fill in the blanks and wind up with some good laughs. That’s where college football is this weekend. Some teams will be eliminated from the playoff race. Some teams will still be alive, but will be trying to fill in blanks to get a story of where they are. Most will be trying to connect the dots, looking at their wins, but watching the performances of teams ahead of them or teams they have played, in an effort to see a picture of their season. With that in mind, let’s get our pencils, and our erasers, and let the games of week 11 of the college football season begin.
Week 11 College Football Preview
Mississippi State (7-0) vs. Tennessee Martin (5-5), Saturday, 4pm ET, SEC Network; Mississippi State may be the #1 team in the current polls, but you can make all the gross Mad Libs jokes about them here. Because the SEC only mandates its teams play eight conference games, most of them take one of these cream puffs late in the season as a fourth non-conference game. While other conferences are deep in the season-salvaging maze, SEC teams get their crayons and try to stay in the lines. It should be embarrassing, but few SEC teams tend to shy away from it. Since it is unlikely the playoff committee will punish MSU for it, no sense in trying to draw too many conclusions from outcome.
Florida State (8-0) vs. Virginia (4-5), Saturday, 6:30pm ET, ESPN; Florida State has scribbled a lot this season. They have won, although not in particularly artistic fashion. However, they have made it through the toughest part of the season and are still the odds-on favorite to win the ACC and get a playoff spot. Seminole QB Jameis Winston is still playing under the cloud of the school disciplinary hearing scheduled for the week of November 17th, but his off-field sketchiness has yet to impact his on-field performance. Three times this season FSU has been behind by at least two touchdowns, but the offense seems to find that extra gear when needed. The only shocker this weekend would be if they fall behind at all to Virginia.
TCU (7-1) vs. Kansas State (7-1), Saturday, 7:30pm ET, Fox; The dots don’t necessarily connect here but we know someone gets torn out of the playoff game book with a loss here. Kansas State has one loss to out-of-conference powerhouse Auburn, but holds a one game lead over TCU in the Big 12 standings. TCU has one conference loss and is behind the Wildcats in the standings. But TCU is currently ranked 6th and Kansas State is 7th. The committee is trying to judge which team’s loss is a “better” loss. TCU is second in the nation in scoring with 48 points per game and QB Trevone Boykin is passing for 335 yards per game in a season that has him in the Heisman picture. In typical Kansas State fashion, its defense is fast and physical, but much better against the run, than the passing game. Kansas State also has the toughest remaining schedule with games against West Virginia and Baylor. The Horned Frogs have a much easier path, but it won’t matter if they don’t win Saturday.
Arizona State (7-1) vs. Notre Dame (7-1), Saturday 3:30pm ET, ABC; Arizona State circled around and over Notre Dame in this week’s poll, (ASU is #9, Notre Dame is #10). The Sun Devils beat a highly ranked Utah team, while Notre Dame struggled maintaining its “neatness” against Navy. ASU is in control in the Pac 12 South, with three very winnable conference games left after this. While the offense has been slowed down dramatically the last two weeks, if ASU wins out and can win the Pac 12 title game, a playoff spot should complete their story. Notre Dame’s one loss to Florida State looks better than any of its wins and the remaining schedule isn’t likely to help the Irish much. This is a “must impress” game for them. While all that makes a lot of sense, here comes the squiggly lines; Notre Dame is 2-5 the week after the Navy game the last seven years.
Michigan State (7-1) vs. Ohio State (7-1), Saturday, 8pm ET, ABC; This is the game where two pictures look alike but aren’t really identical and you have to find the difference. They have the same overall records and are both 4-0 in the Big 10 East. But Michigan State’s loss was against highly ranked Oregon. Ohio State’s was to lowly Virginia Tech. That loss haunts the Buckeyes to this day. As VA Tech continues to lose, the dots continue to move on the Buckeyes. QB JT Barrett is significantly improved since that loss, and the Buckeyes lead the Big 10 in scoring at just under 46 points per game thanks to the maturation process of Barrett. But Michigan State has the stereotypical Big 10 defense; big, aggressive and strong. Barrett sprained his MCL in the overtime win at Penn State two weeks, and while he says he is fine physically, expect the Spartans front seven to try to put him on the run as much as possible. Thanks to having a relatively weak conference, neither team is guaranteed a playoff spot even if they win out, but the road is a little easier to find for Michigan State.
Auburn (7-1) vs. Texas A&M (6-3), Saturday, 3:30pm ET, CBS; This puzzle only take about three lines to connect the dots for a picture. Auburn is sitting at #3 in the poll, but has a conference loss to leader Mississippi State. That means the Tigers can win out, but need help from other teams to get to the conference title game and have a chance at the playoffs. Auburn’s passing game is in hiding with only 36 attempts total the last two weeks. Their rushing game, however, is averaging 277 yards per game. A&M has proven to be one of the more overrated teams from when the season started. QB Kyle Allen threw for only 106 yards last week in one of those cupcake games against Louisiana-Monroe.
LSU (7-2) vs. Alabama (7-1); Saturday, 8pm ET, CBS; Bama is the first team on the outside, looking in for the playoffs at #5 in the latest poll. In trying to complete their picture, the Tide also need some slip ups from other teams in the coming weeks, and they have a must-win game against Auburn on the horizon. First things first though, and as we say a couple of times each season, Saturday night in Death Valley is brutal for visiting teams. One more loss and the playoffs are a blank page for Bama.
Utah (6-2) vs. Oregon (7-1); Saturday , 10pm ET, ESPN; Nothing but straight lines here for Oregon. Win this game and you are Pac 12 North champ, you’ll play in the Pac 12 title game, and win there, (assuming you take care of your remaining schedule), gets you a playoff spot. But think of Utah’s defense as a big eraser. The Utes have one of the two best defenses Oregon will play all season.
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