On the surface, you’d have to say that 2014-15 has started off better than expected for the Vancouver Canucks. With an 8-4 record and 16 points after 12 games, Vancouver finds itself tied with Nashville, Calgary and San Jose for second in the Western Conference (with a game in hand on the Flames and Sharks).
However, all that may change over the next week, as the Canucks face their toughest test of the season: a road trip that sees the team go through Colorado. San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles – four teams that have combined for just six regulation losses in 22 games on home ice this season, and four teams who have absolutely dominated the Canucks recently.
To this point, much of the Canucks early returns have come on the back of a relatively cushy schedule. Vancouver has only played five of their 12 games against teams that appeared in last year’s post-season. Of course wins against the Flames, Hurricanes, and Oilers (three times!) would prop up any team’s record over a short sample size. Against playoff teams, the Canucks are 2-3, with just one of those wins coming in regulation.
They also haven’t had to face a lengthy road trip yet, the longest being a three gamer that saw a solid victory in St. Louis book-ended by blowout losses in Dallas and Colorado.
Of their three back-to-backs so far, they’ve lost the second game all three times.
So, while the schedule has been fortuitous and the Canucks have taken advantage of the positives it has to offer, adverse situations like playing on the road against tough teams, or playing the second game in two nights, have been a huge headache for this year’s team and coach Willie Desjardins.
Which is of course why this upcoming road trip is going to be so vital to see what Vancouver is actually made of this year.
The opening game of the trip may be the easiest of the bunch, as the Avalanche haven’t exactly been tearing it up lately with just two regulation wins in their last ten. However, one of those victories was a crushing 7-3 defeat of the Canucks back on October 24th, a game that I’m sure is still fresh in Vancouver’s mind. If the Canucks want to have any hope of finishing this road trip with a .500 record, a win in Colorado over the struggling Avs is crucial.
Then the Canucks head to California, where things stand to get pretty unpleasant (aside from the brief reprieve from Vancouver’s traditionally miserable November weather).
The Kings, Sharks, and Ducks (with all due respect to Chicago) have been the class of the Western Conference for the last little while, and the Canucks record against their new Pacific Division foes last season was abysmal. They finished 1-3-1 against the Kings, 1-2-1 against the Sharks, and 0-4-1 against the Ducks for a combined record of 2-9-3 – and just one of those wins coming in California.
While that record looks bad, let’s break it down even further and look at goal differential. Against the Sharks, who they had the most “success” against last season, the Canucks were outscored 7-12 in four games for a differential of -5. Against the Kings, they were outscored 6-13 in five games for a differential of -7. Against the Ducks, they were outscored 5-24 (which is highly inflated thanks to a 9-1 nightmare loss last January) for a differential of -19 in five games.
For those not inclined to do the math, that 18 goals for and 49 goals against in 14 games.
Add it all up, and the Canucks averaged 1.28 goals for per game, while allowing 3.5 goals per game against the three California powerhouses last season. They were held to one goal or less in 10 of those 14 matches last year, and scored more than two the same number of times they were shutout (twice). Yeah, it’s that ugly.
Now, of course Canucks fans will say “that was last year, this year is different, change is coming!” – which is of course true. Clearly this year’s Canucks team is much improved over the John Tortorella-led abomination we saw last year.
At 22.7%, Vancouver’s power play ranks 7th in the NHL and looks much more dangerous with the additions of Radim Vrbata and Linden Vey to the first unit (and should only get better if they can find an appropriate power play quarterback on the blueline). Their penalty kill has likewise been very solid at 87.0%, 6th in the NHL.
So while the special teams are much better, the offense and secondary scoring have been the real keys to Vancouver’s early success. The first line featuring the Sedins and Vrbata has been producing at a point-per-game clip, while the second line of Nick Bonino, Chris Higgins, and Alex Burrows (though Jannik Hansen has been playing in Burrows’ spot since his suspension) has been a pleasant surprise as well,combining for 24 points.
Add in solid contributions from depth players such as rookie Vey, third line center Brad Richardson, and tough winger Derek Dorsett, and it all adds up to a Canucks team scoring at rate of 3.08 goals per game this season, good for 6th best in the NHL.
So while the biggest reason the Canucks were handled so easily by the California teams last season, the lack of offense, has largely been taken care of, the defense can’t say the same.
Despite a solid start to the season that has seen goalie Ryan Miller rack up the wins (he leads the NHL with eight), Vancouver’s 2.83 goals against per game ranks 19th in the NHL, below any of their Pacific Division brethren (save Edmonton) and nearly a goal higher than the Ducks. At five-on-five things get even worse, as they have a goal differential rate of 0.81, 23rd in the league.
Collectively, and without even getting into advanced statistics, it paints a pretty obvious picture about where the Canucks have found their success this season: feasting on weaker opponents thanks to good special teams, solid offensive contributions throughout the lineup, and just enough goal prevention to get them some wins.
Against Colorado, San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles, that’s just not going to be good enough.
So while the optics of an 8-4 record and a lofty position in the standings might be making Vancouver fans feel pretty good about where there team is at right now, the true litmus test of their potential this season comes over the next week. How they fare over this four game road trip will tell us more about the 2014-15 iteration of the Vancouver Canucks than anything else.
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