Between the hiring of manager Joe Maddon and the overwhelming volume of premier prospects knocking on the door of the major leagues, the Cubs have commanded a substantial amount of hype heading into the winter. While this is entirely justified, it’s allowed the other Chicago club, the White Sox, to fly relatively under the radar as another candidate to make a statement in 2015. GM Rick Hahn has been laying groundwork to build a sustained contender. There haven’t been many flashy moves besides the signing of Cuban slugger Jose Abreu and the extension of Chris Sale, but a series of shrewd moves have given the Pale Hose a chance to make some noise in the AL Central.
Hahn has managed to accomplish this without the benefit of much of a farm system, but unlike the Cubs, the White Sox are primed to build from outside. That’s not to say that the Sox are entirely without value in the minors. This year, Hahn drafted himself a potential future ace in Carlos Rodon. I was very high on Rodon prior to the draft, not putting much stock in the minor struggles he experienced in his last year at FSU that caused him to lose his status as presumptive first overall pick. Fortune smiled on the White Sox when Rodon fell to the third slot, and Houston and Miami elected to draft Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek (respectively) over Rodon. We all know how the Brady Aiken pick ended up, and Kolek was always going to require years of tinkering to tap into his substantial natural talent. Rodon, meanwhile, performed admirably in his first taste of professional ball, and could arrive in Chicago as soon as next year. That may not necessarily mean that he pitches like an ace, but nonetheless he could slot in behind Sale and Jose Quintana sometime around June to give Robin Ventura a top-flight rotation.
Speaking of Quintana, the decision to extend him may soon go down as one of the best moves of the last five years. Not to constantly toot my own horn, but I trumpeted the value of Quintana earlier this year, before the greater baseball world got a grip of just how great he is. The Sox snagged him as a minor league free agent after the Yankees let him walk, and he’s been nothing but good since cracking the Majors in 2012. He’s lowered his ERA every year since, as well as his FIP and xFIP. This year he owned a 3.32 ERA over 200.1 innings, and his FIP (2.81) thinks he should have been even better. His new contract of $21 million over five years kicked in this season, and there’s two $10.5 million team options tacked on at the end. He’ll start 2015 at the young age of 26, so he still has his prime ahead of him. Chris Sale also has a very affordable extension ($32.5 million over five years, began in 2013, two team options for 2018 and 2019) to his name.
These team-friendly contracts to Sale, Quintana, and Jose Abreu (signed for only $68 million through 2019), combined with the many young players not yet in their arbitration years, gives Hahn a lot of flexibility in his payroll going forward. Adam Dunn’s albatross contract is finally gone, and Alexei Ramirez is gone after 2015 (though he does posses a club option for an additional year). The only real issue on the books is the matter of John Danks. Danks is owed $28.5 million for the next two seasons, and his peripherals-supported two consecutive seasons of ERA’s over 4.70 don’t exactly make that promising prospect. Even then it’s only two years. All of that undefined long-term payroll means that the White Sox, who aren’t exactly in a small market in Chicago, can start packing on some serious meat.
If there’s a time to start doing that, it’s now. A perfect storm of sorts is brewing in the Central, and the next few years could be a true dogfight for first place. The Tigers barely escaped with the division title in 2014, and now they’re about to potentially lose Max Scherzer and Victor Martinez. Miguel Cabrera may be out to start the year, and he isn’t getting any younger either. Jose Iglesias may be back, but with tons of question marks. Alex Avila got hit with yet another concussion. Justin Verlander may continue his maddening descent into mediocrity. And as of now, that bullpen is still a disaster.
Then there are the Royals. Yes, they were 90 feet away from a World Series title. However, they’ll most likely be short one James Shields to start next year, and in all likelihood will be without Nori Aoki and Billy Butler (though his -0.3 fWAR this year may end up making that a positive, but he’s a good rebound candidate). Those holes can likely be plugged, but the loss of Shields without an immediate high-level internal replacement will be an issue. Brandon Finnegan will probably get a look as a starter in Spring Training. Yet that doesn’t change that the Royals lack a reliable offense, and unless Eric Hosmer can finally produce at a consistent high level, the Royals may be in trouble.
This is to say nothing of the Cleveland Indians (whose pitching got better, will be looking to get rebounds from Jason Kipnis and Nick Swisher, and have Francisco Lindor ready to break in) and Minnesota Twins (most likely grabbing a few more pitchers, and will start to see their loaded farm crack the surface). In short, it’s anybody’s ballgame. The key to win will be to rise above the other teams cannibalizing each other, and the White Sox are in the best position out of any of these teams to make a mad dash to the front of the arms race.
The primary means of addition for Rick Hahn will be free agency. A solid mid-rotation arm makes sense as a target, in case Rodon isn’t ready and gets shelled when he makes his first few MLB starts. Danks and Hector Noesi aren’t exactly the best candidates to be making two fifths of the starts, no matter how good Sale and Quintana are. That problem only gets worse if Rodon doesn’t make an immediate impact when he comes up, and either Chris Bassitt or Scott Carroll becomes the fifth starter. Therefore someone like Francisco Liriano or Ervin Santana could make sense as an (admittedly large) insurance policy, along with a couple reclamation endeavors along the lines of Justin Masterson and Brett Anderson on one-year deals for cheap money that can be cut without too much pain. I also expect to see the White Sox right in the middle of the Kenta Maeda sweepstakes. They made a serious play for Masahiro Tanaka a year ago, and Maeda would represent a statement of serious contention to the world. Chihro Kaneko is another Japanese starter expected to make the leap, and this year’s Sawamura award winner figures to be an excellent consolation prize to those who lose out on the Maeda bidding.
The bullpen is another area needs addressing. Zach Putnam (1.08 WHIP, 3.64 xFIP) and Jake Petricka (1.37 WHIP, 3.76 xFIP) represent the only current relievers worth mentioning for the White Sox, and that desperately needs to change if the team hopes to contend. Thankfully, there’s a great corps of relievers on the market. While they’ll probably get priced out of options like Andrew Miller and David Robertson, don’t be surprised if they pick up one of the Francisco Rodriguez/Pat Neshek/Luke Gregerson/Jason Grilli/Sergio Romo/Casey Janssen group, as well as few middle-relief types such as Tim Stauffer and Neal Cotts.
Bats are also headed to U.S. Cellular Field. Jose Abreu and Avisail “Little Miggy” Garcia is a good pair to have in the middle of a lineup, but it’s long been rumored that Hahn has his eyes set on Victor Martinez. The switch-hitting monster would fit perfectly between Abreu and Garcia, and slides right into the DH slot just abandoned by Dunn. While the four-year deal Martinez is looking for would carry into his age-39 season, the man just had the best year of his life at 35. I’d be willing to bet he’s still decently productive at 39, barring some sort of major injury (and those are easier to get as a player gets older). There’s also an open outfield spot after the trade of Alejandro De Aza to Baltimore, and the continued floundering of Dayan Vicideo. Nori Aoki is a name that’s been tossed around, and it seems like a good fit to me (especially given the fact he won’t take a big commitment to sign). A less likely scenario involves Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas. Tomas is only 24, and will likely require a deal north of $100 million. There are also questions about his defense and ability to consistently make contact against major league pitching. However, there’s no denying his prodigious power, and perhaps these worries should be taken with a grain of salt as Abreu carried many of the same red flags in his foray into the American market. The White Sox haven’t been linked to Tomas very much, but the match makes sense to me. In addition to the huge amount of payroll flexibility on hand, Tomas could perhaps be excited to play with his fellow countrymen Ramirez, Abreu (who has spoken very highly of Tomas) and Viciedo. It should be noted that because of his disappointing level of play, Viciedo is a non-tender candidate, especially if Tomas is brought on to the roster.
Another avenue worth exploring is the trade market. The White Sox don’t have many attractive trade assets, but there are some interesting options. Alexei Ramirez could easily become a hot commodity given his good bat at the shortstop position and affordable salary ($10 million for 2015, club option for 2016 at the same cost). The shortstop market in free agency is rather sparse this year, especially after the Orioles locked up J.J. Hardy. Outside of Hanley Ramirez (who really shouldn’t be considered a shortstop anymore from a defensive standpoint, and has durability concerns), the market shapes up to the tune of Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera. That’s hardly inspiring. If Ramirez were made available, there would be no shortage of suitors who want a plus bat, but don’t want to pay Hanley’s huge monetary demands and deal with his defensive butchery. The Yankees, A’s, Reds, Dodgers, Marlins and Mets are teams that fit that bill. Third baseman Conor Gillaspie could also be dangled, and Viciedo and Danks are candidates for salary-dump trades if their positions manage to be amply filled over the winter.
In terms of addition, however, there also some fun possibilities floating around. The Rays are in a massive state of flux, and it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see them start to sell off pieces. Super-utility man Ben Zobrist would be the first one out the door, as the Rays will instantly have 29 teams interested in him. Zobrist can play a bevy of positions well, and still has a productive switch-hitting bat that can fit anywhere in the top half of a lineup. An Eaton-Zobrist-Abreu-Martinez-Garcia-Ramirez-Gillaspie first six is simply insane, and on top of it all Zobrist has a very friendly contract. He’ll make $7 million this upcoming season, and has a team option for another one for $7.5 million. The match is simply perfect. Second base is a massive question mark for Chicago, and one that will most likely have to be filled by a tandem of minor-leaguers and bench players if no move is made. Zobrist can also move around the diamond with ease to spell Gillaspie if the third baseman’s platoon disadvantages continue. Investing in Zobrist would require an absolute confidence that contention can and will happen immediately, as his productivity and affordability will give the Rays plenty of reason to ask for a hefty return. If Rick Hahn is certain that the team is ready, Zobirst is the call to make. It’s a leap of faith, but the upside is tremendous.
If a more conservative approach is to be taken, there isn’t a shortage of options. To continue the second base theme, it makes sense to check in with the Braves about Tommy LaStella. Atlanta has prospect Jose Peraza on the cusp of the Majors, and he seems to be a good candidate for a June callup. Phil Gosselin can man the position in the meantime, and LaStella won’t command nearly the return that Zobrist would. Of course, no infield trade scenario is complete without mention of Arizona’s trifecta of Chris Owings, Nick Ahmed, and Didi Gregorious. The D-Backs matched up with Chicago for a couple trades last offseason, and the youth of those three is undoubtedly appealing. However, then-GM Kevin Towers got absolutely fleeced in those trades, and the new Dave Stewart-Tony LaRussa brain trust may be hesitant to open up that avenue again. Rick Hahn will also find no shortage of pitching, starting and relieving, available to him through trade. I personally like the idea of sending Ramirez to the shortstop-hungry Mets for one of their many good starters.
Nearly every facet of the roster was discussed here, so it may seem that the Sox are nowhere as near contention as I purport them to be. However, the reason that’s not accurate is that the long-term pieces already in place are really, really, really good. Any team featuring Sale, Quintana, Abreu, Eaton, Garcia and Rodon as building blocks is pretty well set up to grow, and their ability to take on payroll only makes it all the more possible. There’s no denying that Rick Hahn has quite a lot of work ahead of him, but the time is now for the White Sox to make their move. The Royals gave me the same vibes at the end of 2013 that the Pale Hose give me now (not to say they’ll charge into the World Series), and I was right on that count. I won’t call them the 2015 AL Central champs, but grabbing the second Wild Card seems to be within sight. Let’s see if I can go 2-for-2.
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