The warm sun is failing, the bleak wind is wailing,
The bare boughs are sighing, the pale flowers are dying,
And the year
On the earth her deathbed, in a shroud of leaves dead,
Is lying.
Autumn: A Dirge – by Percy Bysshe Shelley (published posthumously in 1824)
T.S. Eliot proclaimed April as the cruelest month, but college football fans know that November is the meanest. The college football playoff has made November a glorious and heartbreaking gauntlet for the remaining contenders as they vie for the few coveted places at the top of their respective conferences. It is true that the conference titles in early December will lay down the verdict of autumn’s trial, but in order to get there from where they are now, the nominees must represent themselves effectively in the cold winds, misty rain, and dying trees.
Since a lunatic Alabama fan poisoned Toomer’s Corner after the November Iron Bowl in 2010, Auburn has reeled off a series of miraculous victories. Who will forget the twin victories over Georgia and Alabama last year? That stretch propelled them to the BCS curtain call. This year, Kansas State had the Tigers on the ropes in the first quarter, but the Cats fumbled and penalized themselves to a 20-14 loss. Saturday night, Ole Miss was set to go up 38-35 with time running out when LaQuan Treadwell broke his leg and fumbled as he crossed the goal line.
Auburn won the 2011 BCS Championship over Oregon, who is the front-runner out west this season. Oregon must win the rest of their games and the Pac-12 championship, though a fine Utah team stands in the way. If the Ducks are fortunate enough to meet up with an SEC team in this year’s playoff, one question mark will certainly be their defense, which seems to be a weak point on several of the top Pac-12 teams.
Florida State is most probably in. The ACC is weak overall, but Jameis Winston has proven to be an ice-cold lunatic that continues to perform. Alabama, in this writer’s humble opinion, is the best team in country, though they have a daunting few games ahead of them. Still, likely they are in.
If we are to assume, if only for the purposes of this article, that FSU and Bama are two of the finalists, then who remains? Mississippi State has proven, so far, to deserve their top billing. Their next “bowl” game is at Alabama on November 15th. If they win that game they are in, period. If they lose that game, but win out in impressive fashion, they should be in.
That leaves one spot left.
Oregon? See above.
The Big 12 is a fascinating study. They are the only conference without a championship game. Kansas State has road games at TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor. If they win out they unquestionably deserve a seat at the table. TCU has a great shot if they beat Kansas State next week. That is a “bowl” game. Baylor is a distant threat.
The Big 10? Politics alone will probably place a one-loss championship winner in the final four. Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes suffered a horrible loss against Virginia Tech on September 6th. Michigan State, who prides themselves on defense, got smoked by Oregon 46-27 that same night. Do not sleep on Nebraska and their all-purpose stud in Ameer Abdullah. They deserve the same national cred as Ohio State and Michigan State. The Big 10 will play out.
So, right now, I see Florida State, Alabama, and Mississippi State as three of the final four. The last spot will go to the most politically influential representative – Oregon, a one-loss Big 12 champion, or a one-loss Big 10 champion. Notre Dame had their chance against FSU, but their defense was brutal against North Carolina and Navy. That is the price you pay for independence and an exclusive NBC TV contract. The vengeance of Auburn’s trees will expire in an Iron Bowl loss to Alabama.
The glory of the College Football Playoff is the forum it provides for anyone, including me, to prognosticate. Here’s to the expansion of the format to eight teams. Until then, let’s celebrate the virtues of Autumn, and even Shelley’s tears of heartbreak.
Come, months, come away,
Put on white, black, and gray;
Let your light sisters play—
Ye, follow the bier
Of the dead cold year,
And make her grave green with tear on tear.
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