Now that Joe Maddon has arrived in Chicago, what does he walk into? He walks into a franchise history so laden with pain and misery that a good portion of its fan base cannot even acknowledge the first palpable reasons for hope in half a century. He walks hand in hand with an ownership clan worth an estimated $1.9 billion; and he walks arm in arm with two time world champion president Theo Epstein. Fan anxiety aside, not a bad start.
So what will his Cubs look like when they meet for Spring Training in February?
Anthony Rizzo will be back at first base. He is 25 years old, stellar defensively, and a left-handed power bat. Last year he saw amazing improvement at the plate with a .286/.386/.527 stat line with a .913 OPS. His development as an offensive threat is directly related to his proficiency against left-handed pitching.
21 year old Javier Baez will probably be back at second base. He struggled mightily in his adjustment to major league pitching – something he has done at every level of his career. Baez struck out a whopping 95 times in 229 plate appearances. The flipside is the enormous power he put on display with nine homeruns, some of them prodigious. He is a shortstop prospect who moved to second base and showed solid infield skills and an incredible arm.
Starlin Castro at shortstop may be the biggest mystery in the Cubs organization. He is a leftover from the Jim Hendry regime; and not a prototypical Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer guy. He shows little plate discipline and drifts on defense. Last year he bounced back from a brutal 2013 season and he is a hit machine with questionable power. He has good range and a solid arm, but questions remain if he is capable of becoming a championship shortstop. 20 year old Addison Russell, the heralded prospect picked up from the A’s before last year’s trade deadline, waits in the wings.
Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus describes his ceiling: “They could be getting Barry Larkin-type impact if everything clicks with Russell, but it’s certainly not a given that he will develop into a Hall of Fame-level player. In Russell, the Cubs are getting a highly-skilled player with very strong makeup and work ethic.”
The Cubs will eventually have to make a decision on Castro – either through a trade, or a new position.
Luis Valbuena will probably be the placeholder at third until the 2014 Minor League Player of the Year Kris Bryant takes his spot in the lineup. By all accounts Bryant will hit the crap out of the ball. Last year at AA and AAA he put up huge numbers with 43 homeruns and 110 RBI. The kid is 22 and has employed bulldog agent Scott Boras. This means the Cubs have put him on the clock to save service time in the years ahead. He is projected to be called up sometime in May. At 6’5″ the Cubs are considering him as a right-fielder. He wants to play third.
The Cubs outfield will get interesting when prospect Albert Almora, 20, makes the move to center field. He has a way to go on offense; but, scouts say he is an advanced center fielder with high ratings in maturity and leadership potential. Arismendy Alcantara, 23, will probably start the season in center. He has shown remarkable versatility, which is an exciting proposition with Maddon. Fans will note how Maddon made Ben Zobrist an ultra-utility player along the lines of Jose Oquendo. He is an exciting player with good range, a big arm, speed, and surprising power.
For now Chris Coghlan has proven serviceable in left field. Nothing much to say there except that he has a high baseball IQ. Left field could be a potential free-agent slot for GM Jed Hoyer.
Right field looks like it has been solved for a long, long time. 22 year old Jorge Soler showed off all five tools in a short stint last season. He has an amazingly mature approach at the plate. He is also locked up with a club-friendly contract worth $30 million over nine years.
Wellington Castillo will probably start at catcher. Yet another Cub prospect will be knocking on his door eventually. 21-year-old, left-handed hitting Kyle Schwarber is raking down on the farm. The only question is his defense. He might be converted to the outfield.
The Achilles’ heel for the Cubs is their pitching. They have some significant prospects, but they do not project into 2015. Jake Arrieta was outstanding last year, especially in the second half. He finished the season with a 2.53 ERA and a sterling .989 WHIP. Health questions remain, but he has the potential to be a number one starter next year. Kyle Hendricks, 24, showed a lot of promise with a Greg Maddux style. Nobody is saying he will be Maddux, but he finished the season with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.083 WHIP. Travis Wood is the only other hopeful, and he had a lousy 2014 season. Edwin Jackson, after two disastrous and expensive seasons, will either be dealt or released at a huge net loss.
The Cubs have payroll space. They ranked 28th in the Major Leagues spending $73,546,357 last season. That is going to change. Tom Ricketts and Theo Epstein have given every indication that the time to venture into free agency is on the horizon. Their philosophy has been to drat and develop power hitting position players; and to fill out the pitching staff through free agency. So far, so good.
Joe Maddon walks into a plethora of talent, cash, and baseball knowledge. He is a perfect fit for Chicago. Unlike the big-name hires of the Cubs’ recent past – Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella – Maddon has the perfect temperament to deal with the bizarre idiosyncrasies of Cub fans and media. The National League Central should be on alert. The Cardinals may no longer be the standard bearer for excellence. The future mid-season battles between the Cubs and Pirates should be epic in their display of five-tool talent. Tom Ricketts, Theo Epstein, and Joe Maddon just might build a baseball paradigm for the 21st Century.
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