It’s an odd feeling for the college football world. Here we are, right after another tense week of amazing sports and incredible surprises, and for the first time in forever we have absolutely no idea what to expect
Week 10 CFP Implications: Eyes on the Committee
Sure, we know what we are used to. We stayed up late watching or check our box scores in the morning and know what we thought last week. We see the little numbers next to a team and remember what we are conditioned to remember. Ole Miss’ loss to the #3 team should drop them somewhere from 4-7 spots. Georgia, on the other hand, should drop around 8-12 spots for their blowout loss to unranked Florida. #14 Arizona State beat #17 Utah? They probably don’t get a boost, but they’ll slide up ahead of teams in front of them who lost.
Well, we can throw all of that out the window. We have no idea what will happen Tuesday night. Zero. Zilch. Nada. The selection committee showed us last week that, for the most part, they were eschewing the eye test and just looking at who have you beaten and who have you lost to. This is the first time ever, though, that we will see how they react to new games being played after they have released a ranking.
For example, if they stay true to last week’s form, Ole Miss is going to drop a lot more than just a few spots. Based on last week’s rankings, they probably drop to somewhere between #12 an #14–behind every 1-loss power conference team with the exceptions of Duke and possibly Ohio State and Nebraska as well. Utah, on the other hand, might fall into the middle of the pack of 2-loss teams, which would only mean dropping five spots or so. This will lead to the obvious confusion among fans why Ole Miss dropped so much more than Utah. The fact is, though, that everything is relative and when comparing resumes, that’s something that can happen (especially when number of losses is the first main criteria)
Then again, there is no guarantee that the committee will follow through with the precedent they began to show us last week. There is nothing that says that they can’t change their minds from week to week. Maybe they’ll keep Ole Miss high because it was a tight loss to the clear #3 team on a brutal play. (Similarly, whether or not they jump Auburn over Florida State can teach us about how they are viewing number of losses relative to number of quality wins.)
Another thing to keep an eye on Tuesday night that can teach us a lot is where the committee ranks Alabama and, to a lesser extent, Notre Dame. Alabama was on a bye this week but their resume took a substantial hit. Their loss just looked worse as Ole Miss picked up a second loss and their best win is not quite as good now that West Virginia lost a third game, though the Mountaineers might squeak into the very back end of the rankings this week. TCU certainly seems like it has a better resume than Alabama (the Horned Frogs have a better loss and a better top few wins) and Michigan State’s resume is comparable to Alabama’s now as well. It will be very telling about the committee’s thought process if they jump TCU over Alabama–and if Michigan State passes them as well.
Notre Dame’s resume also took a bit of a hit this week. Teams that Notre Dame has beaten this year went 2-4 on the weekend and they currently only have two wins over teams with winning records. They were already towards the tail end of the 1-loss teams coming into the weekend, but it will be interesting to see if they get jumped by anyone (aside from Arizona State, who was presumably going to jump them anyway).
Now, before all of you Tide fans get mad at me, this is all academic anyway. If Alabama wins out, they are in the CFP without question. Notre Dame is also probably in if they win out. That’s not the point here. The point is that how the committee treats these teams will be a great lesson for us in whether or not the committee revisits each resume every single week. If we see teams jumping Alabama and Notre Dame, it means that they honestly and truly are looking at resumes each and every week.
We are used to the polls that lock a team in a position and keep them there unless something drastic happens. We will be surprised if the committee doesn’t do that. Some fans will be angry. But, based on everything the committee has told us so far, we should expect the teams to fluctuate a lot, especially as it is still relatively early in the season. We have to keep an eye out on what the committee actually does, though, so we can begin to know what to expect from them every week from here on out.
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