2014 MLS Cup Playoff Power Rankings

Which team has the best chance to win the MLS Cup from the remaining teams?

After a close examination of the regular season, I ranked the eight remaining MLS Cup playoff teams in the following categories: defense, offense, possession, their records over their last 10 matches of the regular season, and their records against the other nine playoff teams.

The rankings for each category is based on their performance when compared to the other playoff teams.

Everything is statistically based. I wasn’t interested in “their will to win” or their experience, or coaches know how, etc.

Simply put: the best team has the best chance to win.

2014 MLS Cup Playoff Power Rankings

#8 FC Dallas

Key Players:

• Blas Perez 11 goals; 6 assists
• Michel 8 goals; 5 assists; 2.19 tackles per game
• Fabian Castillo 10 goals; 4 assists
• Tesho Akindele 7 goals

4 Defense:

• 32 goals per game;
• 86 interceptions per game (4^th in MLS);
• 2 shots per game;
• 12 fouls per game (4^th Least in MLS)

5 Offense:

• 62 goals per game;
• Lead MLS in set piece goals 28 this season;
• 81 chances per game (2^nd Least in MLS)

8 Possession:

• 48% possession (3^rd Worst in MLS);
• 78% passing

7 Record last 10(before playoffs):

• 5-5-0; 15 points

8 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 5- 8-4; 19 points
• Goals scored: 23; Goals conceded: 23
• 0-5-3 before July 19th; 3 points
• 5-3-2 after July 19th; 17 points;

Explanation: Dallas has been particularly hot against the top teams recently, earning 17 points from playoff caliber opponents. Mauro Diaz becoming healthy has led to increased chances, giving them a different weapon aside from Michel’s pinpoint accurate free kicks that generally find Akindele or Blas Perez (There’s a reason they led the league in set piece goals). If they can string together possession and earn free kicks and corners in their attacking third, they can be a VERY scary team.

#7 New England Revolution

Key Players:

• Lee Nguyen 18 goals; 5 assists
• Teal Bunbury 6 assists

6 Defense:

• 35 per game;
• 29 interceptions per game (3^rd Least in MLS)
• 7 shots per game;
• 6 fouls per game

7 Offense:

• 50 per game;
• 18 chances per game

7 Possession:

• 49%;
• 77% passing completion (2^nd Worst in MLS)

1 Record last 10:

• 8-1-1; 25 points
• 20 goals scored; 10 goals conceded

7 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 6-8-1; 19 points
• 21 goals scored;
• 23 goals conceded;

Explanation: The Revs body of work throughout the season has been underwhelming at best, however they’ve been scorching hot as of late. The acquisition of Jermaine Jones gives this team a new dimension. Because he creates turnovers and likes to push forward into the attack, Lee Nguyen can push forward and jump into passing lanes for easy chances. Their main issue is that once the playoffs start, teams will probably play Nguyen very physical and double him in an attempt to force other Revs to beat them. If Charlie Davies and CO can provide extra attacking pressure, to force teams to give Nguyen more room to work then can do some damage in the MLS Playoffs this year.

#6 Real Salt Lake

Key Players:

• Joao Plata 13 goals; 6 assists
• Javier Morales 9 goals; 12 assists; 3.3 created chances per game
• Kyle Beckerman 2.36 interceptions per game

5 Defense:

• 15 goals per game;
• 85 interceptions (Worst in MLS);
• 7 shots per game;
• 4 fouls per game

4 Offense:

• 59 goals per game;
• 21 set piece goals; (2nd in MLS);
• 41 chances per game

2 Possession:

• 53%;
• 82% passing

8 Record last 10:

• 4-4-2; 14 points
• 16 goals scored; 11 goals conceded

3 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 6-4-7; 25 points
• 23 goals scored; 18 goals conceded;

Explanation: RSL has been quite a difficult club to beat over the past few years, and the main reason is their possession. Don’t read those defensive stats wrong, they don’t need to do much intercepting, as they are generally the ones with the ball. The more possession they can control, the more opportunities Javier Morales will have to work with players running into passing lanes as they build their attack. If they can continue to squeeze the life out of the ball and keep teams from gaining rhythm going forward, they will hoist yet another MLS Cup.

 

#5 New York Red Bulls

Key Players:

• Thierry Henry 10 goals; 14 assists; 2.59 created chances per game
• Bradley Wright-Phillips 27 goals
• Lloyd Sam 9 assists
• Eric Alexander 9 assists

8 Defense:

• 50 goals per game;
• 85 interceptions per game;
• 6 shots per game (6^TH  Most in MLS);
• 8 fouls per game (3^rd in MLS)

3 Offense:

• 65 goals per game;
• 65 chances per game

4 Possession:

• 51%;
• 81% passing

3 Record last 10:

• 6-3-1; 19 points
• 16 goals scored; 13 goals conceded

4 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 7-5-3; 24 points
• 25 goals scored; 21 goals conceded;

Explanation: If Thierry Henry is considering retiring after this season, he certainly hasn’t played like it. His playmaking abilities coupled with Bradley Wright-Phillip’s relentless pursuit of the goals in and around the box has led to the New York Red Bulls becoming an offensive Juggernaut. I’m not even sure that I’ve ever seen this team play anything close to defense. Why would they, when they can out score most MLS teams? If they force teams to play up tempo, turn each game into a shootout, and dare teams to out-score them, there’s no telling what their future will hold.

 

#4 D.C. United

Key Players:

• Fabian Espendola 11 goals; 9 assists; 2.37 created chances per game
• Eddie Johnson 7 goals; 3 assists
• Chris Rolfe 6 goals; 6 assists

2 Defense:

• 09 goals per game;
• 15 interceptions per game (2^nd in MLS);
• 4 shots per game;
• 6 fouls per game

8 Offense:

• 53 goals per game;
• 59 chances per game

6 Possession:

• 49%;
• 78% passing

5 Record last 10:

• 5-1-4; 19 points
• Last loss was 8/27 vs LA;
• 13 goals scored; 11 goals conceded

2 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 7-5-4; 25 points
• 17 goals scored; 15 goals conceded;

Explanation: I’ve always been a big believer in the phrase: “Defense wins championships.” What DC United does to teams is remarkable. They rarely commit fouls on defense, they limit shots, and gain interceptions at a simply astounding rate. If that doesn’t make daylight difficult enough to find, anchoring that defense is a keeper in Bill Hamid that simply doesn’t allow very many goals entirely. They are compact, they are relentless, and once they are out on the break, Fabian Espendola has the ability to find streaking players in the box or go for goal himself. However, Espendola cannot handle being the only scoring option. The injury to Luis Silva late in the year, means that their goal scoring production will need to come from elsewhere. If they can continue to frustrate teams with their defense and find someone (anyone) to aid Espendola as a scoring threat in Silva’s absence, they will bring another championship to our nation’s capital.

 

#3 Seattle Sounders

Key Players:

• Obafemi Martins 17 goals; 13 assists
• Clint Dempsey 15 goals; 9 assists
• Osvaldo Alonso 91% passing completion (Best in MLS); 3.15 tackles per game; 2.21 interceptions per game
• Lamar Neagle 9 goals; 9 assists
• Marco Papa 6 goals

7 Defense:

• 47 goals per game;
• 56 interceptions per game (best in MLS);
• 13 shots conceded per game;
• 3 fouls (4^th Most in MLS)

2 Offense:

• 91 goals per game;
• 53 chances per game; (5^th in MLS);

5 Possession:

• 50%;
• 81% passing

3 Record last 10:

• 6-3-1; 19 points
• 22 goals scored; 17 goals conceded

5 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 7-8-2; 23 points
• 24 goals scored; 25 goals conceded;

Explanation: Seattle’s roster represents what big club spending looks like in MLS. This team possesses at least 4 to 5 players that can explode and impose their will on a game. Many of their consistent subs were recently, “The Man” at an MLS club or two.  As dangerous as Obafemi Martins has been this year, Sigi Schmid can sub on a player that has been a legit contender for the MLS Golden Boot Award, less than 3 years ago in Kenny Cooper. The depth of their attack is obscene and relentless; they just keep coming at defenses sending multiple players into the box on counter attacks. If Osvaldo Alonso can consistently continue to be the team’s defensive force in the middle, creating interceptions, winning 50-50 balls, and making tactical tackles in the middle without receiving bookings (yellows and/or red cards) for losing his cool, they should be able to continue to barrage teams with offensive assaults in route to their first MLS Cup.

 

#2 Columbus Crew

Key Players:

• Federico Higuain 11 goals; 7 assists; 3.03 created chances per game
• Ethan Finlay 11 goals; 7 assists
• Wil Trapp 87% passing completion; 2.21 interceptions per game
• Tony Tchani 6 assists;

3 Defense:

• 24 goals per game;
• 76 interceptions per game;
• 3 shots per game (6^th best in MLS);
• 1 fouls per game (5^th best in MLS)

6 Offense:

• 53 goals per game;
• 74 chances per game (4^th in MLS),

3 Possession:

• 52%;
• 83% passing

2 Record last 10:

• 7-2-1; 22 points
• 20 goals scored; 10 goals conceded

6 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 6-5-4; 22 points
• 20 goals scored; 17 goals conceded;

Explanation: There is a real and very legit contender in Columbus; they are a complete team. Wil Trapp clogs up the middle of passing lanes, creates turnovers, which in turn leads to Federico Higuain being able to receive the ball at his feet with the opportunity to create chances for his team. They can beat you however you’d like: Trapp and their backline can suffocate your chances or Higuain can lead their attack and provide opportunities for players streaking towards their opposition’s box. If Trapp and Higuain can assert themselves, we might be looking at another championship for the Crew.

 

#1 Los Angeles Galaxy

Key Players:

• Landon Donovan: 10 goals; 19 assists; 3.6 created chances per game
• Robbie Keane: 19 goals; 14 assists
• Gyasi Zardes: 16 goals
• Juninho: 89% passing completion(2^ND in MLS); 1.71 interceptions per game

1 Defense:

• 09 goals per game;
• 24 interceptions per game (2^nd Least in MLS);
• 2 shots per game (Best in MLS);
• 6 fouls per game (2^nd Least in MLS)

1 Offense:

• 03 goals per game;
• 56 chances per game, (Best in MLS)

1 Possession:

• 53%;
• 83% passing

6 Record last 10:

• 5-2-3; 18 points
• 26 goals scored; 12 goals conceded;

1 Record vs teams in playoffs:

• 10-4-3; 33 points
• 35 goals scored; 16 goals conceded;

Explanation: Columbus is a complete team, but the Galaxy have been the most complete team this season in MLS. It’s harder to find a statistic that they didn’t lead the league in than to find one that they did. True Robbie Keane has received much of the attention and Gyasi Zardes is having the best year of his young career, but Landon Donovan might be the most dynamic offensive individuals in MLS because he creates more clear-cut chances for his team than any other player in the world. When Juninho and that brick wall they call a back line is winning balls and leaking the ball forward to Donovan in stride, they are nearly impossible to deal with. Each pass is purposeful and nearly every open runner in the box is found with accurate passing. As long as they can continue to dominate the ball and send Gargan and Rodgers forward in support of Donovan, Zardes, and Keane in transition, they will send the most decorated American born attacking player into retirement with yet another piece of hardware in his storied career.