We’re getting into crunch time with at least half of the season gone. Some teams only have four regular season games remaining. It’s a sprint to the finish and, as upsets abound, we have to expand our thought processes for who will be alive in December.
First of all, we have to acknowledge that only three undefeated teams (and Marshall really doesn’t count) after Week 9 is a very low number. In fact, there are only an additional 18 1-loss teams left in the country. And two of those teams (ECU and Colorado State) are mid-majors and not really part of this discussion.
Week 9 CFP Implications: Expanding Our Horizons
There are 16 1-loss teams left. That’s it. 16. That’s nothing. That is such a tiny number compared to how many games are left. Those 16 teams will play 11 games against each other, in addition to three more games that will involve a 1-loss team playing an undefeated team. And, after that, conference championship games will add another few knockout games between these teams.
We have to get used to the fact that there will most-likely be a 2-loss team in this year’s inaugural CFP. It is still possible that the season ends with as many as six 1-loss teams, but the likelihood of that happening is plummeting every single week. We have more parity than ever within major conferences and it is showing.
Meanwhile, the Pac 12 South is giving the SEC West a run for its money as the best conference in football. The SEC West might have five out of their seven teams ranked, but if USC can stay ranked (and they really should; more on that later) then the Pac 12 South will have five of six. Okay, so having Colorado at the bottom gives the advantage to the SEC West, but the Pac 12 South will probably produce the top strengths of schedule this year.
And that brings us to a team I want to focus on today. The Utah Utes might have one of the best defenses in football. Their lone loss came when they let off the gas against Washington State and the Cougars staged an insane comeback. Other than that, Utah has been perfect.
Utah also has one of the toughest schedules imaginable this year. They tried to schedule well out of conference, though Michigan and Fresno State are letting them down, to see the least. Aside from that, though, they play in the Pac 12 South, which probably means four in-division ranked games. In addition to those, they drew Oregon and Stanford as cross-divisional games (talk about bad luck). If they can navigate those six games, they are probably looking at a rematch against Oregon for the Pac 12 championship.
If Utah goes 5-1 the rest of the way and ends up as 11-2 Pac 12 champions, they will have a resume stronger than any 1-loss team not from the SEC West. That resume would be absurd, loss to Washington State notwithstanding.
Which brings us to the main point we have to consider. Resumes mean something now. Or, at least, they should. We will find out on Tuesday night what they are really worth. The question is, will the CFP selection committee really look into resumes like they said; or will they fall back on the old poll standard of ranking teams first and foremost based on number of losses?
This will manifest itself most obviously in USC’s ranking (or lack thereof). With three losses, USC will most likely not be ranked in the major polls this week. But their resume is strong. They have a top win over Arizona and a very good win over Stanford. They lost a non-conference road game against a Power 5 team with a winning record (Boston College isn’t good, per se, but that’s certainly not a bad loss) and lost two very tight conference games to teams that should be in the Top 10–or Top 15 at worst. That is a solid resume and worthy of a Top 25 ranking. There certainly are not 25 better resumes in the country. Where the committee puts USC–or if they leave the Trojans out–will tell us a ton about what they are looking for in a resume–or if they are even looking at resumes at all.
Similarly, where Alabama is ranked Tuesday night will tell us how much weight they put on media hype as opposed to resume. Alabama has no great wins, a few solid ones, and a loss to the only top team they have played so far. The same can be said of Michigan State and Notre Dame. There is a ton for us to learn about how the committee will view teams this year. We need to keep resumes in mind on Tuesday night so we can figure out precisely what the committee decides to value.
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