Going into the final week of the MLS regular season Portland Timbers fans probably felt that despite the struggles they’ve seen this season, they had a great chance at taking a big step towards making this season somewhat of a success. Despite their playoff chances being on life support, the Timbers had a chance to go down to Honduras, beat Olimpia in CCL play and possibly take the #1 overall seed going into the next round of CCL play. Had they done that they would have had something positive to take out of this season, even if it’s unlikely they make the playoffs.
Instead the Timbers went out and lived out their worst case scenario. Needing to simply win, draw, or lose by less than two goals in order to advance to the CCL knockout round, the Timbers gave up two goals in the first five minutes on their way to a 3-1 loss. Fielding what was undoubtedly the strongest lineup they’ve used in CCL play this year (Yes, even though it was missing many key starters, it was stronger than any 11 they’ve used in CCL this year), the Timbers were simply not ready to play, and it cost them this game and a chance to make a run at a CCL title. It was a disaster.
Getting knocked out of the CCL makes this coming weekend even more important, and leaves the Timbers and their fans searching for a silver lining.
Had the Timbers trotted out a completely reserve lineup against Olimpia one could find a positive in that their starters would be rested for the game against FC Dallas. They didn’t do that. Four regular starters played 90 minutes. Rodney Wallace played 71 minutes, Diego Valeri played 45, and Darlington Nagbe and Fanendo Adi played 19 minutes each. That’s 8 of 11 potential starters for this weekend playing, and six of them playing significant minutes.
If Portland controlled their own destiny, at least the Timbers and their fans could go into Saturday knowing they could fix everything by simply beating FC Dallas and clinching a playoff berth. They can’t do that, because they don’t control their destiny. Even if they manage to beat FC Dallas on the road, the Timbers have to rely on the Colorado Rapids to earn a draw or victory on the road in Vancouver. These are the Rapids who have gone 13 games without a win, picking up only two points in the process.
If one was desperate to find a silver lining in the fact that Portland’s playoff hopes depend on those Colorado Rapids, one could cite the fact that Colorado has beaten Vancouver twice this year, 2-1 in Vancouver and 2-0 in Colorado. A realist would point out that this Colorado team barely resembles the team that looked like a strong playoff contender early this season. Injuries, questionable roster decisions, and flat out poor play have decimated the Rapids, leading to their near record breaking winless streak.
The only possible silver lining that exists comes from last weekend. Vancouver faced the SJ Earthquakes last weekend, the team Portland had just beat 2-1 and 3-0 back-to-back, and they drew 0-0. Colorado, meanwhile, lost 1-0 to FC Dallas in one of the most boring games of the season. FC Dallas scored their lone goal on a penalty kick and their chances to score were few and far between. Perhaps the Vancouver attack will sputter against Colorado as they did against SJ, and maybe Colorado can pull off some end of season magic and scrape out a draw. Miracles happen.
Even if the unlikely happens, Portland must beat an FC Dallas team with something to play for. After RSL’s victory Wednesday night against Chivas USA, FC Dallas sits two points behind RSL for 3rd place in the West. A win for FC Dallas would put them in 3rd place and help them avoid the play-in game.
Key Players:
Portland: Darlington Nagbe has yet to score in MLS play in 2014. FC Dallas may be the team he finally does it against. In 2013 Nagbe scored in each of the four matchups against FC Dallas, including this magnificent strike:
Portland doesn’t necessarily need Nagbe to score in order to win. They’ve proven that this year, as they already have 59 goals this year, surpassing last year’s total of 54. That said, they do need Nagbe confident and in recent weeks it seems that Nagbe’s confidence has suffered as he continues to not score. A goal from Nagbe could do wonders for his confidence, something which could boost the entire team.
FC Dallas: Fabian Castillo is the type of player who has given the Timbers fits this year. He is a one man fast break, and Portland has struggled against teams that break with pace this year (See: Portland vs Seattle). Just watch this individual effort against SJ earlier this season:
Then there’s this run against Colorado:
Unfortunately for Portland, Castillo isn’t the only threat posed by FC Dallas. Blas Perez leads the team with 11 goals, while rookie Tesho Akindele has seven, and defender Michel has eight goals and serves up the most dangerous set piece ball in MLS.
Keys to the game:
FC Dallas will need to take advantage of their chances on the counter-attack. They’ll likely have plenty of them, as Portland will look to be on the front foot, especially knowing they need a win to have any chance at a playoff berth. FC Dallas was poor against Colorado last weekend, and they’ll know they need to be much better to beat what should be a highly motivated Portland team.
Portland will need to make sure they play with urgency and discipline in this match. While they need to win the game, Portland has conceded far too many goals this season in situations where they appear to be dominating the game. They need to put pressure on the Dallas goal while not letting themselves be exposed at the back. Set pieces will also be key, as FC Dallas has scored 28 of their 55 goals this year from set pieces.
There isn’t much hope left in Portland, but with the Timbers are a very talented team and their backs are against the wall. Maybe that desperation will bring out the best in them.They better hope so.
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Main Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images
