When Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over the Cubs in 2011, they were faced with rebuilding a team in shambles. A weak farm system that had become a punchline in recent years to its consistent failures; several crippling contracts; a culture of losing. Both men, especially Epstein, adamantly proclaimed that the Cubs were several years away, and good times were just a few years away. Fans scoffed, though now it appears the sentiments of those men were correct.
Should The Cubs Spend Big This Winter?
Recently, Epstein stated that the Cubs goal in 2015 was to win the National League Central. Obviously this is a goal every year, but now it comes with an aura of reality. The Cubs were among the hottest teams in baseball in the second half of the 2014 season, carrying the best NL record for most of the way. Prospect arrivals, like those of Javier Baez and Jorge Soler, and bounce-back seasons from players like Jake Arrieta have suddenly made competing in 2015 very realistic, if not expected.
The upcoming offseason will be a turning point for the Cubs organization, and will be a factor in when the team competes. Obviously the team does not have a need for another shortstop; Starlin Castro is the incumbent, with Javier Baez being the replacement if the right deal comes along. Addison Russell, acquired in July in exchange for Jeff Samardzija, is a consensus top five prospect and could step in soon and provide at least above average play. Anthony Rizzo, still just 25, figures to be the Cubs first baseman for the foreseeable future after a massive 2014 campaign, and Wellington Castillo seems to be the backstop until Kyle Schwarber ascends the ranks all the way to Wrigley (assuming he stays at catcher). The organization’s biggest need is on the mound, particularly in the starting rotation, and this just happens to be the offseason of marquee free agent pitchers.
Does it make sense to spend money now, though, when the team might not compete this year? Even with unparalleled volumes of young position player talent, the division is still very difficult, as the Cardinals and Pirates will not be going away any time soon.
If the Cubs pick up where they left off, the team can expect to be picking in the middle teens of the first round in 2016. The club was fortunate that even with a solid second half of 2014, they still have a protected pick in the amateur draft in 2015. Since they have a protected pick this year, they can sign a blue chip free agent and only lose a second round pick. Wait until the 2015 offseason, and the team likely needs to forfeit a first rounder. For a front office that has had colossal success with first round picks, losing out on a top pick would be a tough blow to take.
Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks did more this year than anyone could have anticipated in the Cubs rotation. Arrieta, a former top prospect in the Orioles organization, had an ERA more than a full point lower than his next career best (2.53). His Fielding Independent Pitching rating of 2.26 had fans and scouts baffled. Kyle Hendricks, on the other hand, had never been considered anything more than “just a guy”, as Keith Law described him. Each of these pitchers flashed top of the rotation potential in 2014, though it can be expected that each will regress (Hendricks much more likely than Arrieta). With the pitchers about to hit the open market, the Cubs can add better pitching while keeping both of those gems in the rotation.
James Shields is not expected to return to Kansas City; Max Scherzer will likely demand a contract Detroit is not capable of fathoming; Jon Lester is on the final year of his deal with a team that doesn’t sign expensive free agents. There are many more pitchers about to be without a team, but these happen to be the premiere ones. Each one is 30 or older, and each will more than likely be seeking that last big contract. That hundred million dollar deal that they can ride out until they hang it up. Bad contracts are coming off the books for the Cubs, and it is time to act like a big-market team and buy one of these prize talents.
Another position that the front office has talked at length about upgrading is in the outfield. Soler exploded onto the scene in September of this past season, and looks to be the future in right field. Rumors have surfaced involving the Dodgers shopping Yasiel Puig and the Red Sox making Yoenis Cespedes available. This seems like as good an opportunity as ever to resolve the shortstop logjam and move one of the team’s many top flight middle infielders. Finding playing time for Castro, Baez and Russell (along with Arismendy Alcantara) seems almost impossible, so chances are that at least one will be flipped eventually. Acquiring an All-Star outfielder such as Puig or Cespedes in exchange for one of those future studs has to seem like a huge opportunity.
Will a conservative approach greatly diminish the Cubs’ chances of competing for a Central Division title in 2015? Maybe, maybe not. A big free agent signing this offseason, though, can take most of the questionability out of the equation. Another front line pitcher to go along with a lineup chock full of developing stars would change the scenery of the Central sooner, rather than later.
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