I know I keep banging on about the Rugby World Cup 2015 and how the excitement is building in the rugby fraternity, but am I the only one who is beginning to think that the euphoria around the England team is maybe just a tad premature? If you believe some of the views of former internationals, coaches and rugby writers you’d imagine that England only have to turn up and lace their boots properly next year in order to get to the final. There are even quite a few predicting a second coming of the Webb Ellis Cup to the Twickenham trophy cabinet. Bloody hell, I hope they are right, it would certainly make my year I can tell you – well, that and a jackpot win on Euromillions, obviously. However, can I just temper this enthusiasm with a bit of a reality check? In the run up to the 2003 win, England notched up 12 wins, home and away against the Southern Hemisphere giants – the All Blacks, Springboks and Wallabies. This included back to back victories against the All Blacks and Australia down under – as anyone who knows anything about the game will tell you, that is some feat. They went into the World Cup as the number one team in the world and as favorites. They also achieved a Grand Slam in the last 6 Nations before the tournament – something that hasn’t been repeated in the last 11 years. Twickenham had become a fortress with 23 consecutive wins – against all comers. All this culminated on a glorious night in Sydney with Johnno holding the coveted trophy aloft – but only after extra time and a last gasp drop goal from Jonny!
I don’t discount home advantage –after all, look at the London Olympics – but of the 7 World Cups so far, only 3 have been won by the home nation. Two of those by the All Blacks, who were overwhelming favorites going into the tournament. It gets slightly better with 5 of the finals featuring the home side, but it is no guarantee.
There is no doubt that England are a much improved side from 2011, but Stuart Lancaster only has a Triple Crown and a glorious win over New Zealand in 2012 to stack up against the record for the England side from 2003. Statistics won’t win you games but they are a pretty good indication of where you stand. England do have a chance next year – maybe a good chance. They are the number three ranked team in the world and they are playing at home. But there are two other factors which need to be considered – the injury list going into the autumn tests is serious – there’s virtually a full pack unavailable and after Saturday it looks very much like Manu Tuilagi and possibly Owen Farrell won’t be available at least for the first game against the All Blacks. Another important item that seems to have passed by the pundits is that we are in the infamous ‘Group of Death’ alongside the Wallabies and Wales – neither or whom are pushovers! There is much hand wringing and talk of disarray in the Wallaby camp – well they didn’t look that shabby on Saturday when they were still leading as the clock turned red only for the All Blacks to grab the win at the death. If we win the group, we are likely to face Samoa or Scotland. If we come second then the Springboks await. If we come third – well I’d rather not think about that as it would be goodnight all. Am I being pessimistic?
Well no – but I am a little concerned and, unlike many, am not taking it for granted that we will automatically still be in the competition at 4 pm on 31st October next year! Things may be a little clearer at the end of November after we’ve taken on the top three from the Southern Hemisphere, plus a game against the big hitting Samoans.
You can read more of my lighter views on rugby and life in general at www.rugbyoldbloke.wordpress.com. Thanks for reading this.
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