Most media outlets and pundits are down to about a dozen teams that they feel are still in the running for the inaugural CFP. The list usually includes Oregon and Arizona from the Pac-12, Kansas State, Baylor, and TCU from the Big XII, Florida State from the ACC, Michigan State and Ohio State from the Big Ten, and a nice chunk of teams from the SEC.
We have to expand our vision, though. The CFP era is supposed to be one where we can finally get over our preseason rankings and expectations. No one expected anything from teams like Utah or Minnesota. And, possibly, they will play themselves out of being mentioned at all by the end of the year. But, the fact of the matter is, they deserve to be discussed.
Week 8 CFP Implications: Plenty of Teams Still Alive
We are down to just three undefeated power conference teams. Florida State looks solid to run the table. They haven’t been nearly as dominant this year as last, but there are no more real challenges on the schedule. Mississippi State and Ole Miss are both undefeated and in the SEC West, and they will meet in their yearly regular-season-ending Egg Bowl rivalry game.
After those three, though, there are still 15 1-loss power conference teams. Notre Dame also has only one loss on the road against a consensus Top 3 team by four points. Notre Dame is still very much alive. As is every single other power conference team with only one loss.
Take a team like Minnesota, for example. No one expected anything from Minnesota coming into this season. And, with games remaining against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, the Gophers still may end up having a very non-memorable season. For now, though, they are 6-1 and just broke into the rankings for the first time this year (Coaches’ Poll, they still sit at #28 in the AP). Their only loss was in a nonconference road game against TCU, who has now turned into a Top 10 team. With the committee’s premium on SOS and scheduling tough nonconference games, it’s hard to imagine that a Top 10 nonconference game could be held against Minnesota if it came down to that.
But that’s getting way ahead of ourselves. The point of this post is not to explain what could happen for Minnesota. The point is that we need to finally reject preseason assumptions and look at resumes solely based on those resumes’ merits. Minnesota’s resume lacks any real depth. Their best win is over either Michigan or Northwestern. They are still 3-0 in a power conference, which is not easy to do.
Now, what if we compare their resume to, say, Georgia’s or Notre Dame’s? Georgia certainly has a better win than anything Minnesota has done by beating Clemson. Then again, Georgia’s loss should be a much bigger knock on their resume than Minnesota’s. South Carolina looked like a good team at the time they beat the Bulldogs, but the season has proven that this is not so. Georgia’s two other wins worth mentioning (against Missouri and Arkansas) also seem to be better than anything Minnesota has done, but not by so much.
What about Notre Dame? Notre Dame’s big win over Stanford has lost quite a bit of luster over the last few weeks. The Cardinal are still quite a strong team, but the are not the resume-maker that they seemed before they played Arizona State. After that, the Irish have a bunch of wins that seem respectable but haven’t quite lived up to expectations as the season has gone on (Michigan, North Carolina, Syracuse, etc.) Their resume looks very strong when eyeballed, but loses all of its strength when you really look into it. Their loss, though, is just about the best loss a team can pick up. No one can knock them for that.
So how does Minnesota’s resume stack up? Clearly, the Gophers have not played as tough a schedule as Georgia or Notre Dame. Their wins are less notable. They have a better loss than Georgia but a worse one than Notre Dame. This is a resume that is a step behind these other teams’, but not significantly so.
This brings me to the crux of my point. We are still living in a preseason poll-dominated mindset, where CFP contenders are ranked based on preseason expectations. We have to get rid of that. Minnesota has probably the weakest resume of any 1-loss power conference team (it’s why I chose them for this example). And yet, it is not significantly farther behind the resumes of several teams often mentioned as major CFP contenders.
In addition to that, we have to get used to the idea that we may see a 2-loss team or two in the playoff. Already, it looks like the Big XII and Pac-12 could have 2-loss champions. An upset in the championship game of any of the other three power conferences could throw everything haywire. Marshall is probably going to run the table, though their weak schedule will probably not earn any consideration whatsoever. And BYU fans are probably still shaking their heads, wondering what could have been this year had Taysom Hill not gotten hurt.
One of the biggest advantages of the CFP is that we can finally judge resumes purely at season’s end instead of just sliding teams up and down from where they started. At least, that’s what pro-CFP commentators claimed. So far, though, the college football world has not internalized that message. It’s time for us to start.
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