The SEC West is in a quandary. The polls told us that Alabama would cruise and that looked legit. We expected a repeat performance from Auburn and after six weeks that also seemed secure. What someone forgot to tell us was that the Egg Bowl in Mississippi might be the biggest game of the year and that one of those teams would be headed for the new playoff system as the representative of the conference. Let’s take a look at what all of the SEC West teams have on their plate and try and predict where the teams are headed going into the post season.
Mississippi State: They are the new number one and instant darlings of the SEC. I do not believe both Mississippi teams have ever been in the top five of the polls. Quarterback Dak Prescott is probably playing at an even higher level than he expected. We could instantly tell you that this is a team game and the Bulldogs are firing on all cylinders. Tough defense has characterized Mississippi State and they are playing in rarefied air for the time being. Coach Dan Mullen has also worked hard to keep them grounded. It is a long season and there is much work to be accomplished.
The Bulldogs get a much deserved bye week and then face six consecutive weeks culminating with the aforementioned Egg Bowl at Mississippi. The slippery game could be in two weeks as they face Kentucky in a SEC East crossover game. Kentucky is a much improved team under Mark Stoops and will be a stern test. This is also one of those trap games teams have to be wary of. Tennessee-Martin will be a welcome respite prior to a visit to Alabama, who are still in the running compliments of their miscue laden game against Arkansas. The Bulldogs then get a much weaker Vanderbilt team at home before the big test in Oxford against the Rebels. Before November 29th we should have a good idea how big that game will ultimately be.
Ole Miss: What can you possibly say about the Rebels that wasn’t answered on the field in the last 2 weeks? Mississippi has all of the tie breakers covered except for Mississippi State and quarterback Bo Wallace is making all of the doubters take notice. Their upcoming slate is still daunting though with matches against Tennessee, LSU and Auburn in the next three weeks. Presbyterian will be a breath catcher along with their bye week and then Arkansas on the road followed by that big Egg Bowl game at home.
A victory over the Vols next week will provide a springboard before that all-important game against LSU. Teams have always gone to Death Valley to lose and these Bayou Bengals will not be gracious hosts. The Rebels problem is those four games still in the SEC West. The Rebels defense will have to continue to be stiff and responsive in case Wallace has an average game along the way. If both Mississippi schools are undefeated entering the final match, then you would have to give a slight edge to Ole Miss at home.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide is still rolling. Coach Saban found an ugly way to win last Saturday in Arkansas to save an otherwise disastrous season. Quarterback Blake Sims was not very efficient, and must bring his A-game along real quick or they will get swallowed up and spit out of the SEC West race. This week’s game against Texas A&M will tell the tale of the Tide’s chances. Kenny Hill was beat down by both Mississippi schools and would love a little redemption going into Tuscaloosa. This is a watershed game for Alabama.
The Tide then travels to an improved but inexperienced Tennessee Volunteer team which leads into a bye week. Alabama finishes with LSU on the road, Mississippi State at home, Western Carolina in Tuscaloosa and then the Iron Bowl showdown at home against Auburn. The Tide cannot afford any other tie breakers if they hope to win the West.
Auburn: The other Tigers from the plains of Alabama have a very tough schedule ahead of them. The only bonus is this week’s bye before a six week run with half of the games on the road. The end of October sees the Tigers home to the Gamecocks who suddenly seem like an easy mark for the other SEC teams. However after South Carolina, they travel to Mississippi for their last chance at the SEC West title. Then it’s the visiting Texas A&M Aggies at Jordan Hare Stadium followed by a trip between the hedges at Georgia without Todd Gurley. The token mop up game against Samford gives them a chance to polish up before the famous Iron Bowl at Alabama. These are all winnable games, but one slip up and Auburn can kiss the playoff goodbye and watch the SEC Championship game from the comfort of their living rooms.
Texas A&M: The Aggies are in serious trouble. Kenny Hill looked like a world beater early in the season. He looked poised and polished beyond his years and it looked like Texas A&M wouldn’t miss a beat without Johnny Football. Well, two games against Mississippi schools changed that impression. Texas A&M wasn’t playing Lamar anymore, and its signature win over South Carolina is so tainted now by the Gamecocks woes.
Luckily for A&M they get a bye week, but not until they travel to Alabama and take on the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban will be in a foul mood and you can expect Alabama to have all of its guns blazing this coming Saturday. The Aggies season could be restored with a win over Alabama, but it’s chances are slim to none as they lose all of the tie breakers against the Mississippi schools. Games with Louisiana-Monroe, at Auburn, Missouri at College Station and finishing at home with LSU should see Texas A&M mid-pack in the SEC West at best.
LSU: Coach Les Miles has some real tools to work with in the future. However, his season has come unglued early and often. The Tigers big comeback win over Wisconsin seems like so long ago now. Losses to Mississippi State and Auburn derailed LSU and now they get the chance to play spoilers in the SEC West. Games on the slate are Kentucky, Mississippi and Alabama at home, followed by a trip to Arkansas and finishing on the road against the Aggies.
Even with the maturity of running back phenom Leonard Fournette, this team is too inexperienced to go up against the crop of the division. There are certainly some winnable games, but if they continue to play like they did last Saturday at Florida, expect a very low tier bowl invite at best. For any consideration in the West, they have to win out over Alabama. Mississippi and A&M. That is a tough schedule to overcome in my eyes.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks are probably one of the best 3-3 teams in the nation. Coach Bret Bielema promised a tougher,more aggressive Arkansas team, and he has delivered. Although the results are not obvious yet, the Razorbacks have played very well in spurts to show some promise for the future. They still have matches against Georgia, UAB at home followed by a trip to Mississippi State.
Thankfully, the Hogs get a bye week before the final three weeks against LSU, Mississippi and finishing with Missouri on the road. If they go 3-3 in those clashes they’ll be in a bowl game at the very least which would be a huge improvement over last year. Truthfully though, Arkansas is probably looking at 2-4 down the stretch with an improved UAB as the only relatively easy game.
This is why we watch the games every week, because predicting this year’s SEC West race is nigh impossible. Will the West ultimately beat each other up and be ousted completely from the Playoff Championship?
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