The SEC season is beginning to look like a gladiator match-up in ancient Rome. We’re at the half-way point and already we’ve seen pre-season favorites Alabama and Auburn suffer losses, perennial contender LSU is out of the Top 25 and in danger of not making a bowl, a one-loss Georgia is the saving grace of the East, and the two Mississippi schools seem to have taken the Robert Johnson approach to mastering winning football. With the sudden ascendency of Ole Miss and Mississippi State and the rest of the gladiatorial spectacle this weekend, there is a lot of reaction today. Let’s take our weekly look at separating reaction from reality.
Week 7 SEC Analysis
Game of the Week: Mississippi State 38, Auburn 23
The Reaction: Mississippi State vaults to the top of the college football world.
The Reality: Mississippi State is only the second best team in Mississippi.
A week after Oxford represented on GameDay, it was Starkville’s turn. Unfortunately, cow bells don’t have the same appeal as sweet drinks, summer skirts and bow ties. Having said that, it is awfully hard to find a flaw in the Bulldogs’ game right now. Dak Prescott is my leader for the Heisman. State held Auburn to 23 points. The crowd was electric. Mississippi State might be the second best team in the nation, but this game wasn’t the statement people are making it out to be. First, Auburn played a very poor game. Nick Marshall was limited throwing and the defense was gashed by Mississippi State. Much of that is due to Mississippi State. But Auburn had four turnovers, including two early on that essentially spotted State a 14-point lead. Auburn’s mediocre performance does diminish State’s win slightly. But let’s look at three key aspects of State’s performance. First, the Bulldogs had four turnovers as well, including three interceptions from Prescott. Second, the defense allowed 25 first downs and 441 yards of offense. Third – and I think most importantly – Mississippi State was unable to finish Auburn when they had the chance. Auburn wrestled the momentum away from Mississippi State twice, once to begin the second quarter and again for the entirety of the third quarter. Mississippi State’s chance at making a true statement was the opening of the second half. Instead, they had to rely on another costly Auburn turnover in the fourth to separate themselves. Let me be clear: Mississippi State is a great team and deserving of a Top 3 ranking, but this game was not the statement game that the reaction is making it out to be.
Mississippi 35, Texas A&M 20
The Reaction: Ole Miss quietly goes on the road and beats a struggling A&M team.
The Reality: Mississippi is the best team in the nation.
It’s surprising Ole Miss didn’t get as much coverage of their win against Texas A&M as Mississippi State did for their win against Auburn. Ole Miss is the one more deserving of leap-frogging Florida State, and here is why. Ole Miss’s defense is playing lights out. I know that stats say 27 first downs and 455 yards for A&M, but that’s what you get from a Sumlin offense. Sometimes stats lie only if you listen to them. The key stat here is the 54 rushing yards allowed by Ole Miss. Their defensive game plan was simple and effective: shut down the run and make A&M win in the air. Ole Miss created turnovers and prevented scoring. Secondly, the offense is playing very sound football. Two penalties, no turnovers. Stop me if you’ve heard the story about an effective and efficient offense with a championship caliber defense before. The fact that Ole Miss went on the road a week after a big win, in front of 110,000 fans and beat a good team trying to redeem themselves from a loss is indicative of their resolve, mental toughness and quality. This game wasn’t even that close. The final score includes a last play garbage touchdown from A&M. Ole Miss is clearly the best team in the country.
Georgia 34, Missouri 0
The Reaction: Georgia overcomes a week of distractions for a big win.
The Reality: Missouri is fading, and fading fast.
While this was a strong performance from Georgia, it is far from an indication of greatness. Two key takeaways for Georgia is the continued health of the running game even with the absence of Todd Gurley and the continued improvement of the defense. Holding Maty Mauk scoreless is certainly a drastic improvement from their game against Tennessee. Georgia is clearly in the lead in the East and is the most consistent team of the bunch. However, their quarterback play is still concerning. Hutson Mason is still ineffective in the second- and third-levels of the passing offense and that will come to haunt the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game and in their bowl game. Missouri, on the other hand, is struggling to stay afloat. They are turning out to be a roller-coaster program. A rough first year in 2012, SEC East champs last year, and looking down the barrel of a six-loss season this year if they don’t improve their run defense and fix their offensive synchronization.
Alabama 14, Arkansas 13
The Reaction: Alabama continues to struggle and barely beats Arkansas.
The Reality: Alabama is still a good team and beats a good Arkansas team.
Alabama made plenty of mistakes in their win against Arkansas, but the chorus of doubt questioning Alabama’s relevancy is hyperbole. Alabama’s offense is struggling, no doubt. Ten first downs is not very good. And Arkansas’ decision to get away from the running game and focus heavily on the passing game is questionable, but the bottom line is Alabama went on the road to a really good team that had this game circled on their schedule as their signature win, and came away with a victory. Alabama’s defense is still good enough to support the team and the offense has showed an ability to be good. For Arkansas, the decision to go away from the running game must perplex the Razorback fans. Additionally, committing three turnovers against a team like Alabama will end any hopes of a turnover. Alabama is still a good team; maybe not what they have been in the past five years, but they are also a young team. Arkansas is a team on the rise.
LSU 30, Florida 27
The Reaction: LSU pulls out another close come-from-behind victory.
The Reality: LSU keeps their slim bowl hopes alive and Florida is in bad shape.
This game wasn’t very pretty, and it’s the second ugly game in a row for Florida. LSU is another of the young teams in the SEC and they are trying to find their rhythm and experience. LSU is looking at a surprisingly tough road to get to a bowl. The game against Kentucky this weekend will likely determine whether or not they go to a bowl this year. LSU, like Alabama, might not be as good as they have the past five years, but they will certainly be back next year. Florida, however, is in turmoil. The fan base is unhappy, the quarterback situation is not good, and the Coach Will Muschamp is on the hot seat. Their performance against Missouri this week will go a long way to determining their season. A win sets them up for a bowl, a loss means they will have to upset Georgia, South Carolina or FSU just to make a bowl. While LSU’s program has direction, Florida’s program appears to be mired in stagnation.
Kentucky 48, UL-Monroe 14
The Reaction: Kentucky easily handles a non-Power 5 opponent.
The Reality: Kentucky is one blown call away from being 6-0.
Yes, you read that correctly, Kentucky might be the second best team in SEC East. Were it not for a blown call in the Florida game, they would be 6-0 with three SEC wins, including one against South Carolina. The meat of their schedule is still to come, with games against LSU, Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi State and Tennessee coming up. Kentucky is one of the few teams in the country that we still don’t know a whole lot about. People will have a hard time buying into Kentucky with their history of mediocrity, but this team has shown reason to be considered for Top 25 consideration up to this point.
Tennessee 45, UT-Chattanooga 10
The Reaction: Tennessee gets back on track against intra-state opponent.
The Reality: Tennessee still has some concerns on the road back.
Tennessee’s quarterback Justin Worley got back on track with a good showing against UT-Chattanooga, as did the defense, but the Vols were unable to establish an effective running game against an out-matched opponent. The Vols had hoped to use this game to shore up some weaknesses heading into a road match-up with Ole Miss this week, but it looks like the dominate Ole Miss defense will not have to worry too much about the Tennessee running game. That should cause Worley some concerns heading into Oxford this week.
Vanderbilt 21, Charleston Southern 20
The Reaction: Vanderbilt beat Charleston Southern by 1 point?
The Reality: Vanderbilt beat Charleston Southern by 1 point.
Speaking of programs in disarray, not only has Vanderbilt regressed back from the James Franklin era, they have seemingly regressed back further than that. Vanderbilt has two wins this year: a 3-point win against UMASS in which UMASS missed a field goal as time expired, and a 1-point win against Charleston Southern. They have a blowout lose to Temple as well. I’m not sure what convinced Derek Mason to leave Palo Alto for Vanderbilt, but it must have been something more than the football team. Vanderbilt might possibly be entering a dark era for their football program after three strong seasons under Franklin.
Overall SEC Analysis:
At the halfway point we have confirmed what we thought at the beginning of the year: The SEC West is (easily) the best division in football and the East is an up-and-down every Saturday division. What is surprising is just how good the West is (LSU is the worst of the bunch!) and how up-and-down the East is (looking at you South Carolina). We’ve also confirmed our fear that the gauntlet of the SEC schedule will likely keep two teams out of the playoff picture. Ole Miss and Mississippi State still have have to play each other plus a slate of three more West games. If Georgia wins out and loses to an undefeated West champion, will they get the invite over a one-loss team? Unlikely. This gladiator-like campaign of great college football shows once again why it’s great to be an SEC fan.
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