We are seven weeks into the season and we finally have a manageable picture for who has inside position into the inaugural four-team College Football Playoff.
Week 7 CFP Implications
At this point, we can narrow the list of teams that control their destiny for the CFP down to just six teams. In the SEC, Ole Miss and Mississippi State both know that if they run the table, they’re in. Those are the obvious two from that conference. An undefeated SEC champion is in, no questions asked. Georgia also controls their own destiny. They have one loss (to South Carolina, which doesn’t look so good at the moment) but still will get to the SEC championship game if they win out. If they can win that, a 1-loss SEC champion will get in no matter what because of the current national layout–not to mention that Georgia’s season would include a cross-divisional win over Auburn.
Now, what about 1-loss SEC teams like Alabama and Auburn? The fact is, if either of them win out and go 11-1, they’re probably in the CFP. In fact, if either of them wins out they’re probably in the SEC championship game. But they are not in line to control their own path to the CFP. If Alabama or Auburn ends 11-1, one of the Mississippi schools could win the SEC. If Baylor and the Florida State/Notre Dame winner go undefeated, then there would just be one spot left. While an 11-1 SEC team might get in over a 1-loss Big Ten or Pac 12 champion, it’s certainly not a guarantee.
As just mentioned, Baylor also controls their own destiny. An undefeated power conference champion is a lock at this point. The same is true of Florida State. If Florida State runs the table, they are a lock, even in a slightly weaker ACC. Notre Dame is not technically a power conference team, but they play a power conference schedule and will have one of the best strengths of schedule in the country. If they run the table, they are in.
And that’s it. There are six teams that will wake up tomorrow morning knowing that the only thing they have to do to make the CFP is win. Everyone else has to watch scoreboards at some point. Some teams are closer than others, but everyone other than these six know that there are other teams ahead of them in line.
All of this makes next week’s Florida State/Notre Dame game huge. It will be a matchup of Top 5 teams and, more importantly, will probably be Florida State’s biggest test of the season. In fact, there might not be another year-end ranked team on the schedule (that depends on Clemson not dropping another game or two). Also, this means that Florida State has less leeway than most other contenders because of a pretty weak schedule. Now, a nonconference loss to Notre Dame is nothing to sneeze at and the committee probably won’t punish Florida State for that. But with no real meat on the resume other than that (Florida and Louisville are not looking like the expected quality opponents and Clemson is still a bit of a question mark), Florida State will be very nervous come selection Sunday, even at 11-1.
But if college football has taught us anything, there are far more contenders than just these six teams out in front right now. It is very unlikely that these teams will lose somewhere (Baylor won’t be favored against Oklahoma). In fact, it is probably more likely that all six of these teams lose a game before the end of the season than it is for all of them to win out (except when they play each other).
So who else shouldn’t quite be nervous yet? The contenders that we have been following all year are still around. Alabama, Oklahoma, Auburn, Michigan State, and others are still in solid position. They need other teams to lose, but it is more likely than not that some of those teams lose. Also, every 1-loss power conference team is still in pretty good shape. They might need conference races to break in their favor, but every team in a power conference that finishes with only one loss will always be involved in the CFP discussion.
That gets us to the real crux of the discussion. A 1-loss power conference team will usually be in the Top 4 and will always be a Top 4 contender. The reason for this is that it’s really hard to go through a power conference undefeated or even with only one loss. Teams play tough games over the season and they lose games. Winning 11 of them gets a team pretty close to the top of the standings.
The one team I haven’t mentioned yet is a seventh team that pretty much controls their own destiny. Oregon has one loss to a good Arizona team that matches up very well against the Ducks. Because the loss was cross-divisional, Oregon also knows that they will get to the Pac 12 Championship Game if they win out. They also have the best non-conference win of the season, over Michigan State in Week 1. Because Florida State and Notre Dame play each other (and because only one more team maximum can come through the SEC without losing again), at least one of the teams/conferences that control their own destiny will lose. A 12-1 Oregon is almost guaranteed to be a lock, but because it’s not an absolute guarantee we cannot say that they control their own destiny. Still, with their offensive line coming back, Oregon fans probably have more reason to be optimistic than any of the other six teams that this post began with.
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