As we hurtle towards 2015 and even faster to the autumn internationals, there is increasing media speculation as to whether England Rugby can actually repeat 2003 and bring home the World Cup. Although technically it will be here anyway since we are the hosts – but I imagine you know what I mean. On the surface it doesn’t look too bad – based on the Premiership so far there would appear to be adequate depth across most positions and competition for each shirt is intense.
Of course there is equally the real concern about injuries to top players – Alex Corbisiero, Mako Vunipola, Dan Cole and Tom Youngs – and we’re still only talking about the front row! There was an article in a serious newspaper the other day which picked a team to play in November based on ‘form’ and availability i.e. those not in casualty (as in being injured, not extras on TV). This side included 6 uncapped players and together had a total of just 175 caps, although this was boosted by James Haskell who was seen as only being the equal of the uncapped Will Fraser at number 7. Take James Haskell out and you’d be fielding a side with 124 caps – that’s less than 20% of the minimum number that Stuart Lancaster reckons he needs for a team to win the Webb Ellis Cup.
If you take the last four World Cup winners, the average team ages were 27, 28, 27 and 28. The number of caps held by Australia (1999), England (2003), South Africa (2007) and New Zealand (2011) was 622, 638, 668 and 709. For current holders the All Blacks, the most experienced of the last four winning sides with 709 of course. Even if this newspaper ‘form’ side were to play in all the autumn internationals, the 6 Nations and the warm up matches prior to November next year, the team would still only amass a total of around 350 caps – and that is if you include James Haskell rather than Will Fraser. It also pre-supposes that there are no injuries and they play well together.
Now, I don’t think you pick a team based on statistics, despite the current obsession with GPS and monitoring players for every waking moment, but I do think that experience is a major factor in winning internationals. The players picked on ‘form’ are undoubtedly playing well – but it is the Premiership – as hard as it is, it isn’t the same pace or intensity as in the international arena. With respect, taking on Sonny Bill and Ma’a Nonu is likely to be a bit more intimidating than facing the London Welsh midfield. I am all for blooding some of the exciting youngsters in the autumn and the 6 Nations – Henry Slade and Dave Ewers for example, but World Cup history suggests that experience is essential if you are to become the World Champions.
The truth is, it doesn’t matter what I think and I don’t expect Stuart Lancaster to ring me any time soon for my opinion. However I’m pretty sure the names on every one of his team sheets for November and through to the World Cup will have a lot more than 175 caps. It all makes for good pub arguments and trying to shoe-in players from the team you support. Only last time I looked, the Rugby World Cup tends to be won outside on grass not down the Nag’s Head when you’re getting on it.
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